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Francis Fukuyama: Preparing for Defeat

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Re: Francis Fukuyama: Preparing for Defeat

#151

Post by jansen555 »

BlueTemplar wrote: post #125
pbourke wrote: post #107

I can’t believe you’d discuss this situation without considering the nuclear angle. Putin holds a significant wild card in terms of tactical nuclear weapons. I’m sure Russia believes that they could be deployed inside of Ukraine in order to force an end to the Ukrainian resistance and the west would continue to remain on the sidelines to avert escalation to the end of the world. A total defeat/humiliation of Russia w…

He could , but considering the relations between Russian and Ukrainian peoples and the risk of WW3 this would most likely just result in mutiny and the subsequent removal of Putin, probably even just in reaction to that order.

[dead]

Re: Francis Fukuyama: Preparing for Defeat

#152

Post by karaterobot »

FiberBundle wrote: post #148
karaterobot wrote: post #142

Earlier quoted context omitted.

In a thread about Russian expansion and the resumption in full flower of the cold war, you're asking which part of The End of History has proven to be flawed?

That's exactly my point. Fukuyama is extremely misunderstood in popular media, he never said that the fall of the soviet union implied continued existence of liberal democracy. If you had actually read the book (and specifically the last chapter) you would know that he wrote that the threat of authoritarianism will always be present and (some) democracies will (at times) fall back into autocratic states from time to…

Honestly, I think you were just waiting for an opportunity to tell someone they hadn't read the book, or had read it incorrectly. It's a service I am happy to provide any time this subject comes up.

Nonetheless, the book's thesis is hard to reckon with:

> What we may be witnessing is not just the end of the Cold War, or the passing of a particular period of post-war history, but the end of history as such … That is, the end point of mankind's ideological evolution and the universalization of Western liberal democracy as the final form of human government.

And it is always possible that Putin himself has not read (or, like so many of us, merely misunderstood) Fukuyama's work as well.

Re: Francis Fukuyama: Preparing for Defeat

#153

Post by rayiner »

zozbot234 wrote: post #133
rayiner wrote: post #129

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I’m not saying he’s a populist, I’m saying that the populists have scored a significant victory by pushing him to the right on cultural issues even if he ultimately wins reelection.

Militant secularism is not a right wing position in France. It's very much part of the shared zeitgeist. This is the country that once had a "Cult of the Reason Goddess" as their state religion, and their modern über-secular laïcité is not very different.

The secularism isn’t right wing, but he’s also had strong words against American progressive ideology: https://www.nytimes.com/2021/02/09/world/europe/france-threa...

Re: Francis Fukuyama: Preparing for Defeat

#154

Post by frozencell »

pavlov wrote: post #86
frozencell wrote: post #23

Earlier quoted context omitted.

We don’t have a cryptographic proof on each statistics both sides news give us.

How would that even work? Do you expect dying soldiers to bravely sign "I am dead" blockchain transactions with their private keys?

Electrocardiography (ECG or EKG).

[0] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Heart_rate_monitor

Re: Francis Fukuyama: Preparing for Defeat

#155

Post by hackerfromthefu »

burntoutfire wrote: post #147
chongli wrote: post #59

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Everything I’m hearing about Mariupol is the opposite of what I want to hear. It’s an absolute disaster that’s ratcheting up day-by-day. The Russian army is using modern artillery to conduct medieval siege warfare. They’re deliberately starving the whole population to death and the city (like most cities today) had zero preparations to deal with a siege. We’ve got to find some way to get these people supplies!

I don't understand why people are calling these tactics "medieval". The same tactics were also widely used in XX century, e.g. in siege of Leningrad, during the pacification of Warsaw Uprising or in Jugoslavia war in 1990s. They're part of the "total war" package that is and always was on the table for leaders determined to win at all costs (or are just seeking revenge - let's not forget that the Alies burned hundred…

Because apparently modern US warfare doctrine and smarter guided weapons causes less civilian casualties.

Re: Francis Fukuyama: Preparing for Defeat

#156

Post by frozencell »

srvmshr wrote: post #138
frozencell wrote: post #23

Earlier quoted context omitted.

We don’t have a cryptographic proof on each statistics both sides news give us.

I have never cussed reading views on HN. That is a more Reddit phenomena & this parent comment belongs there. Makes me wonder how insensitive one has to be to make a terribly casual dismissal of the current calamity & dangers to thousands of Ukrainians. Some people have a reserved section in hell for belittling or condescending human suffering.

No post body was provided.

Re: Francis Fukuyama: Preparing for Defeat

#157

Post by hackerfromthefu »

pphysch wrote: post #85
ogogmad wrote: post #69

Earlier quoted context omitted.

How do we know that this is not another Afghanistan/Chechen-1 for Russia? They lost both of those, and I don't think those got off to the same troubled start (for Russia) as this one did. Think flight from the country, brain drain, economic meltdown, loss of 3 generals in one fortnight , Ukraine being flooded with weapons, equipment loss, major logistical failures, the loss of the information war... An outright defea…

Afghanistan was about Soviet/American imperial conquest & controlling Asia. Chechnya was about suppressing separatism / national security. Ukraine is also about national security, but a rung up from Chechnya because Moscow is concerned about a hostile military empire putting hypersonics there. Cuban Missile Crisis but even more extreme (imagine if Cuban extremists were shelling and killing Cuban Americans in Florida…

From looking at the captured territories on the map, it seems to be able grabbing valuable pieces of land and resources.

Russia is capturing a lot of the Ukrainian coastline/ocean access, including the access to the natural gas deposits discovered in the black sea.

Re: Francis Fukuyama: Preparing for Defeat

#158

Post by hackerfromthefu »

netsharc wrote: post #44
ilamont wrote: post #18

This is at least true in the north; the Russians are doing better in the south, but those positions would be hard to maintain if the north collapses. I'm puzzled why more attention isn't focused on Russia's progress in the south and naval superiority. They clearly want Ukraine and the world to accept its annexation of Crimea and bolstering the zone around it is shaping up to be a point of negotiation, as they made cl…

Say Ukraine surrenders and Putin gets what he wants, and the shooting stops, new borders are drawn and soldiers from both sides retreat. I can't see how Putin gets out of the economic war, though. EU and US voters will never accept their governments cancelling sanctions, and they'll boycott businesses who announce they're returning to Russia (they won't anyway, if SWIFT doesn't work and money can't flow easily). What…

Frankly as a consumer I'm going to make efforts to avoid Indian and Chinese goods where possible.

Re: Francis Fukuyama: Preparing for Defeat

#159

Post by hackerfromthefu »

Overtonwindow wrote: post #10

For a while I was pushing the no-fly zone as well, until I read this article. I'm surprised Russia would be heading for an outright defeat, and if true they've marshaled the bulk of Russian forces in this conflict, I have to wonder what the rest of the defense position looks like for Russia? For example, if China were to, say, start rolling across Siberia, besides moving the mother of all bowel movements, there's abs…

1 China can buy what it wants from Russia.

2 Russia still has nukes.

Re: Francis Fukuyama: Preparing for Defeat

#160

Post by hackerfromthefu »

credit_guy wrote: post #31

I agree with every point he makes. Fantastic summary. I think the Russian collapse will be like what scientists call a phase transition: a semblance of stability one day, a complete breakdown one (literal) day later. Ukraine will end up holding more than 100k POWs. The only negotiations will Russia will be about reparations. I hope they don’t settle for anything less than one trillion.

If it gets to that stage, the repatriations should be centered on Russian nuclear disarmament.
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