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Japan has declared today that the southern Kurils is their sovereign territory

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Re: Japan has declared today that the southern Kurils is their sovereign territory

#151

Post by tada131 »

unfocussed_mike wrote: post #115
thiagoharry wrote: post #61

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I think that the probability of Russia losing this war is negligible. They are using just a tiny fraction of all their personal and power.

They are already using 100% of the forces they originally lined up on the Ukraine border. This appears to be something like 75% of their total operational power, with obvious, serious problems, like relying on civilian GPS, being evidently wholly unprepared for the mud, the fact that there's no comms chain back so they rely on Ukrainian comms networks staying up, the lack of a supply chain, the fact that the domestic…

What generals?

Re: Japan has declared today that the southern Kurils is their sovereign territory

#152

Post by jhoechtl »

mellavora wrote: post #113
jakeinspace wrote: post #32

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The planet will not be unlivable in 50 years. Larger areas of it will be, but most of the landmass will still be hospitable. There may be significant collapse of agricultural production, but again, that will affect the poorer countries mainly. I suppose some massive and unpredictable ecological collapse could conceivably happen by then, which would I guess have the potential of severely damaging food production, but…

> that will affect the poorer countries mainly sending waves of migration into the richer countries. at some point we are all in this together. > some massive and unpredictable ecological collapse could conceivably happen by then, which would I guess have the potential of severely damaging food production, but I’m not sure if that’s considered especially likely. unlikely that we get an unpredictable ecological collap…

> sending waves of migration into the richer countries

The richer countries still have the mass transportation in their hands. Its railroads, planes, ships and cars of richer countries which bring the migrants.

Re: Japan has declared today that the southern Kurils is their sovereign territory

#153

Post by toyg »

refurb wrote: post #137
xxs wrote: post #47

Earlier quoted context omitted.

>Kaliningrad could transform to a puppet state of the EU, removing a serious gap in its territorial contiguity. EU is not a country and to my knowledge none of the neighbors wants to join that territory. It's quite a poor region with Russian population... Germans effectively left in the late 40s'

Not a direct reply but I read a fantastic book about post-WW2 Europe that basically argued the wholesale redistribution of populations after the war turn Europe from a mixed, multiethnic set of countries to a group of countries dominated by specific ethnic groups. Konigsberg (Kaliningrad) being a great example with Germans fleeing/being expelled and replaced by ethnic Russians wholesale.

It's something that really started mid-XIX century, with the emergence of the concept of ethnic-based statehood in France and Prussia. The process continued unabated for about 100 years, until the populations were divided "cleanly enough" in most of the continent. The end of WW2 was just the last chance for big moves in that direction, and some countries grabbed it with both hands.

Re: Japan has declared today that the southern Kurils is their sovereign territory

#154

Post by inglor_cz »

pjerem wrote: post #119
inglor_cz wrote: post #94

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Even democratic states tend to reel after lost wars. Perhaps not collapse entirely, but a period of unrest is very possible.

Just out of curiosity, are there a fair number of democratic countries (outside of the US) deciding to go to war and then lose it ? On the contrary it looks like democracies have a hard time even deciding to defend themselves, because people will never decide risk a war on their country. And Putin is exploiting just this, IMO.

In the last decades, no. If they enter a war, it is usually because it is forced upon them by an external power.

But many important Western European countries were at least flawed democracies since approximately the last quarter of the 19th century. For example, Italy was a democracy when it launched an abortive attempt to conquer Ethiopia in 1896.

Re: Japan has declared today that the southern Kurils is their sovereign territory

#155

Post by galangalalgol »

Aethylia wrote: post #28
decremental wrote: post #15

This is different because we like Japan but we don't like Russia. If Russia didn't want the entire world to turn on them, they shouldn't have illegally invaded Afghanistan.

Do we like Japan? They have a shameful history that they have refused to acknowledge. I view them very negatively.

Yeah, even decades ago my history books in the US were pretty blunt about US' horrible mistakes. The lack of acknowledgement is disturbing. Not that teaching our children about our genocides, soldiers shooting college students, or propping up dictatorships to fight proxy wars seems to change our behavior, but being aware that we are jerks just seems aesthetically preferable to pretending we are perfect, it at least opens the door for growth.

Re: Japan has declared today that the southern Kurils is their sovereign territory

#156

Post by barry-cotter »

mytailorisrich wrote: post #59
azangru wrote: post #2

Didn't they always (well, since WW2) consider southern Kurils their territory occupied by Russia? Has anything changed in their messaging?

Well, Japan lost WWII and treaties among the victors gave the Kurils to Russia.

Right of conquest. Remember, in International Relations, might is all.

Re: Japan has declared today that the southern Kurils is their sovereign territory

#157

Post by Giorgi »

mytailorisrich wrote: post #93
Giorgi wrote: post #69

Earlier quoted context omitted.

This is inaccurate information, Russia fought both wars in Georgia, currently Abkhazians and Ossetians are Russian citizens (they grabbed Russian passports as soon as they become available) so they will go back to their motherland Russia, Georgia will re-absorb it's own historical territory. Looks like you are spreading Russian propaganda in bad faith.

Oh so you're saying that Georgia wants to forcibly take those territories and go full ethnic cleansing (That's how I read what you wrote, I'm not trying it on)? If so, they might indeed prefer to have the Russian army around...

Again, you are spreading Russian propaganda, Hacker News is not a place for Russian shills.

Re: Japan has declared today that the southern Kurils is their sovereign territory

#158

Post by JumpCrisscross »

mytailorisrich wrote: post #127
Navarr wrote: post #99

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Speaking only as an American, I don't think we really know what Crimeans want. Russia isn't well-known for legitimate democratic voting, and the Crimean referendum has never been acknowledged by Western Democracies. I would not be starkly opposed to Crimean independence, nor even Russian-integration, but in essence it looks like Russia took Crimea and then held a fake referendum to legitimize it. But the question alw…

Crimea it at least 70% ethnic Russian and was Russian until moved to Ukraine without consultation. So I think this is a case where Putin's actions did align with what the people actually wanted even if that's too hard for the West to acknowledge publicly (I'm sure that they accept that Crimea is not going back to Ukraine).

> Crimea it at least 70% ethnic Russian

So are parts of Ukraine who are vigorously resisting the Russian invasion.

Identity is tricky. Many once ethnic and/or linguistic Russians may choose to identify differently, to be governed differently, and that’s their right. The modern “Russian” ethnicity, as one distinct from e.g. Ukraine, is only a few hundred years old [1].

[1] https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kievan_Rus'

Re: Japan has declared today that the southern Kurils is their sovereign territory

#159

Post by inglor_cz »

velcro wrote: post #147
baxtr wrote: post #67

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I guess it depends on how you define "losing". I don't see any scenario where Russia actually "wins". Thus, in turn, I think it's ok to say they will definitely lose this.

This will very likely end by both parties pronouncing they are the victors here. For Ukraine the victory might be that Russia will most likely be unable to take Kiev and need to "withdraw" closer to their own borders i.e. the victory is not submitting in the "heroic" sense. However with a staggering economic loss and loss of life (including the refugees that might never return). For Russia their victory will be claim…

The loss of life is the real problem for Ukraine.

I don't doubt that once this is over, the US and the EU will launch a generous reconstruction plan. Ukraine may end up with much better infrastructure in place of the destroyed one.

This could be financed from seized oligarchs' wealth. No need to spend taxpayer money. And Western construction companies will like those contracts, doubly so after Covid.

Re: Japan has declared today that the southern Kurils is their sovereign territory

#160

Post by Giorgi »

jhbadger wrote: post #134
Giorgi wrote: post #69

Earlier quoted context omitted.

This is inaccurate information, Russia fought both wars in Georgia, currently Abkhazians and Ossetians are Russian citizens (they grabbed Russian passports as soon as they become available) so they will go back to their motherland Russia, Georgia will re-absorb it's own historical territory. Looks like you are spreading Russian propaganda in bad faith.

Abkhazians and Ossetians aren't "Russians" ethnically, culturally, or linguistically though. Why would they want to go "back" to Russia (not their homeland)? The whole point of their struggle is ultimately to get their own countries just as other ethnic groups have. They merely accepted Russian aid and citizenship as a way to get out of Georgian rule. Which of course may ultimately be going from the frying pan into t…

They rushed to took Russian passports thus they are Russian citizens and can go back to their homeland Russia.

The whole point of their struggle was Russian invasion so Russians could build military bases there (which they eventually did)

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