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Comparing Covid-19 Deaths to Flu Deaths Is Like Comparing Apples to Oranges

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Re: Comparing Covid-19 Deaths to Flu Deaths Is Like Comparing Apples to Oranges

#151

Post by gnusty_gnurc »

taeric wrote: post #141

I think boiling it down to a number is killing understanding. This is far more deadly for elderly than even this estimate makes it sound. The CFR for over sixty year olds in WA being an absurd 28%!! Under sixty? The flu is probably more deadly. Certainly understand 20. So, just like with different fruits, you can't compete easily when boiled to a single facet. Almost like comparing the color of two fruits, without ac…

I suspect political leadership will avoid bringing up the abject failure of government to protect the elderly. Meanwhile they'll use this as an opportunity to ratchet up emergency power, make precedents, etc.

Re: Comparing Covid-19 Deaths to Flu Deaths Is Like Comparing Apples to Oranges

#152

Post by glofish »

kevingadd wrote: post #126
glofish wrote: post #119

Earlier quoted context omitted.

you are confusing the response with the disease - mandating that people cannot go to go to the beach is not caused by the virus, it is caused by a bureaucrat. There is no evidence whatsoever that going to a beach causes infections. If anything makes your body stronger and more able to cope with a disease.

Exposure to the virus is how you get the virus. If there are other people at the beach, some of them might be infected, and you're being exposed by being in proximity. Maybe if you're Far Enough Away you can limit the exposure, but are people really Social Distancing on beaches and in restaurants? Evidence so far suggests the answer is no. Incidentally there is also a lot of data out there suggesting that the virus c…

you just exhibited the fallacy of equating a restaurant to a beach (or being outside). You are also using "exposure" in the most generic sense of "presence" within a distance. That's really not how it works.

Like I said there is absolutely no evidence that you could get infected while in an open environment, moreover plenty of evidence that being outside is greatly beneficial to health and well being.

Now I am asking you the same question you asked me: "why would a bureaucrat want to go out of their way to close a beach if there wasn't a good reason?"

The answer is simple as unpleasant, they don't understand what they are doing.

Re: Comparing Covid-19 Deaths to Flu Deaths Is Like Comparing Apples to Oranges

#153

Post by williamstein »

Diederich wrote: post #80
Pxtl wrote: post #59

Earlier quoted context omitted.

One problem with comparing excess deaths is that automotive traffic deaths are down, and automotive traffic deaths are a very large slice of the pie in many countries (including the USA).

There were about 2.8 million total deaths in the United States in 2019 compared to about 40 thousand motor vehicle deaths.

Going further, in 2017 all accidents combined were 6% of deaths in the US (https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/fastats/deaths.htm). Nearly half (1,246,565) of the 2,813,503 deaths in the US in 2017 were from heart disease and cancer. Deaths from heart disease per day are almost as bad as covid-19 right now, so since there is a lot one can do proactively to reduce the chances of heart disease, I'm taking it way more seriously than I did before: don't smoke, hour+ of exercise every day, heart-healthy diet, sleep enough, and less stress.

Re: Comparing Covid-19 Deaths to Flu Deaths Is Like Comparing Apples to Oranges

#154

Post by bonzini »

dominotw wrote: post #101
bonzini wrote: post #55

Earlier quoted context omitted.

If the growth is not exponential anymore, the effect of lockdown is already very much statistically significant.

> If the growth is not exponential anymore Ok so if what happens to this theory if the growth in not exponential in GA next two weeks.

Just like any other falsifiable theory, you look at new data and learn something new. It depends on that new data: has growth slowed down further, has it stabilized, is it linear but with a higher slope, etc.

Re: Comparing Covid-19 Deaths to Flu Deaths Is Like Comparing Apples to Oranges

#155

Post by ceejayoz »

rossdavidh wrote: post #50
dominotw wrote: post #29

I have a simple covid related question, hopefully someone can answer this here. We have been under lockdown for over 6 weeks here in chicago. But chicago had highest number of deaths all of this week[1]. If we were under lockdown 6 weeks ago how did the people who died this week get infected. Does this mean ppl aren't following the guidelines properly ? I feel like I am missing something obvious here. 1. https://chic…

To put it gently, the science behind lockdown limiting the spread of a virus in a urban environment is...limited. But they felt they had to do something. It's kind of like making the medicine taste bad so you'll believe that it is doing something.

> It's kind of like making the medicine taste bad so you'll believe that it is doing something.

No, that's so little kids don't think it's candy.

Re: Comparing Covid-19 Deaths to Flu Deaths Is Like Comparing Apples to Oranges

#156

Post by s1artibartfast »

soperj wrote: post #142
s1artibartfast wrote: post #127

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Are we going to see 9-40 times more deaths this season from those regions?

all of africa has 1663 deaths, and india has 1154. So yes likely.

The origional question was:

>I don’t get it. I found that there so far have been covid 234,133 deaths [0] and season flu can cause up to 646,000 deaths [1].

9-44x is 6-28 million covid deaths this year. Is this the number you think is likely?

Re: Comparing Covid-19 Deaths to Flu Deaths Is Like Comparing Apples to Oranges

#157

Post by SlowRobotAhead »

DanBC wrote: post #116
SlowRobotAhead wrote: post #18

Earlier quoted context omitted.

>That was easy wasn't it. Was it? I don’t get it. I found that there so far have been covid 234,133 deaths [0] and season flu can cause up to 646,000 deaths [1]. So I’m not seeing 9x to 44x by any reasonable metric or projection. What am I missing? If 9 to 44x is possible, there need to be models that would show that. Does anyone have a model that shows we aren’t even remotely near peak deaths? Even if the article is…

> I found that there so far have been covid 234,133 deaths [0] and season flu can cause up to 646,000 deaths [1]. How are you counting covid-19 deaths? You're counting the people who had a test, were confirmed positive for covid-19, who then died. How are you counting flu deaths? You're looking at people who had a test and were positive for flu, but you're also including people who had flu like symptoms but no test.…

“I’m counting” deaths by the sources I linked.

The article is figuring 9x-44x worse by taking the worst week of covid and comparing to same week of seasonal flu.

I’ll rephrase my original downvoted question, do you think there will be 10-30* million deaths of covid this year? If not - then the 9x-44x is total bullshit.

Re: Comparing Covid-19 Deaths to Flu Deaths Is Like Comparing Apples to Oranges

#158

Post by nradov »

ceejayoz wrote: post #134
malandrew wrote: post #132

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The number of young people that are healthy (no pre-existing conditions like being overweight, diabetes or high blood pressure) that that experience what you describe is extremely rare.

> no pre-existing conditions like being overweight, diabetes or high blood pressure Well over half the country ticks one of those boxes. 70% of Americans are either obese or overweight.

The coronavirus is going to with us for a long time; we're unlikely to get a miracle cure or effective vaccine anytime soon. On average American adults are about 27lbs (12kg) above their healthy weight. That means if they start losing weight now at a safe, sustainable rate then most people can be down to a healthy weight in a year or so.

Obviously there is a huge amount of individual variation but most people can take steps to improve their individual odds of survival.

Re: Comparing Covid-19 Deaths to Flu Deaths Is Like Comparing Apples to Oranges

#159

Post by soperj »

SlowRobotAhead wrote: post #157
DanBC wrote: post #116

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> I found that there so far have been covid 234,133 deaths [0] and season flu can cause up to 646,000 deaths [1]. How are you counting covid-19 deaths? You're counting the people who had a test, were confirmed positive for covid-19, who then died. How are you counting flu deaths? You're looking at people who had a test and were positive for flu, but you're also including people who had flu like symptoms but no test.…

“I’m counting” deaths by the sources I linked. The article is figuring 9x-44x worse by taking the worst week of covid and comparing to same week of seasonal flu. I’ll rephrase my original downvoted question, do you think there will be 10-30* million deaths of covid this year? If not - then the 9x-44x is total bullshit.

You likely won't because of the actions people are taking, so there won't be as many people who actually get the disease. There were nearly 200 thousand confirmed deaths from Covid-19 worldwide in April, and that's with much of the world under lockdown. There would be many many more without the lockdown.

Re: Comparing Covid-19 Deaths to Flu Deaths Is Like Comparing Apples to Oranges

#160

Post by soperj »

dominotw wrote: post #77
ceejayoz wrote: post #47

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Does this mean ppl aren't following the guidelines properly ? Yes, most likely. Folks still have to go out for groceries. Essential workers spread it to their families. The city had to close down various beaches and trails because people weren't staying far enough apart. etc. etc. etc.

So if make groceries pickup only and hefty fines/jail times for flouting guidelines. We would've had lockdown only for 2 weeks, in theory?

That's what they did in parts of China. Still took some time to get the numbers back down.
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