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Tesla Q1 2020 Update

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Re: Tesla Q1 2020 Update

#151

Post by 54351623 »

xur17 wrote: post #54
save_ferris wrote: post #39

Earlier quoted context omitted.

He might be more concerned about the sales prospects instead of operational expenses. Automakers are getting hit really hard by this pandemic, and they need a healthy economy to sell cars. Many economic forecasts are saying that a full recovery is 2-4 years away, although there are many different opinions.

Plus, the price of gas has gone down significantly, hurting one of the benefits of electric cars.

Couple with this the massive glut of used cars thats about to get worse, the fact that many cities are seriously considering long term conversion of roadways to be pedestrian only and all the oil field pickups that are about to get repo'd (pertaining to the cyber truck).

What I'd really like to know is what will happen to Tesla's vehicles if the company goes under? Like will they get bricked essentially? I sincerely doubt Tesla will go under like that but, I'm curious none the less.

Re: Tesla Q1 2020 Update

#152

Post by Gwypaas »

herdodoodo wrote: post #142
Gwypaas wrote: post #134

Earlier quoted context omitted.

This is mostly the US because the externalities aren't taxed. In EU the taxes on gas are much higher. With VAT and everything Sweden currently has $4.5 per gallon, down from $5.8 last autumn, this makes any electric car much more compelling.

Sweden also has numerous tax breaks for buying electric vehicles, and does not properly tax the externalities of producing electric cars (running/refueling EVs, however, has very minimal negative externalities)

True, haven't looked at the data in some time but the breakeven point in regards to LCA comes fairly early though when comparing against ICE cars.

Re: Tesla Q1 2020 Update

#153

Post by threeseed »

mcv wrote: post #62
SpicyLemonZest wrote: post #24

Earlier quoted context omitted.

That's how democratic societies are typically intended to work; on issues of great social importance, everyone's encouraged to think about them and decide what they'd like to happen.

I think it's also how genius works. When you're really good at one thing, there's the risk of thinking you're good at everything.

That's not genius. That's arrogance.

Truly smart people know that their abilities and success are fleeting and do not extend beyond their own little sphere. And if they do venture beyond they are humble and learn from the wisdom of experts. They never, ever think they are good at everything.

Re: Tesla Q1 2020 Update

#154

Post by anoncareer0212 »

maxharris wrote: post #121
refurb wrote: post #101

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I think Tesla falls firmly in “luxury good” and with mass unemployment, Tesla might see much less demand for much longer than just the lockdown.

You're forgetting about Battery Day next month! You will find out that Tesla hits $100/kWh, which means they'll be able to sell an electric car for the price of a gas one, without giving up range. You're also forgetting that what they're selling has no real competition, just like the iPhone didn't skip a beat through the 2008-2009 crisis. Also their full self-driving tech is ahead of everyone, including Alphabet. I t…

The best part of ARK is when Cathie goes on CNBC to pump garbage like this, then she spends the next week selling off millions of $s of it (thousands of shares). Merited a mention in the FT this week after their latest disclosure, the 3rd time in 4 months

Would love to take the other side of any wager you offer

Re: Tesla Q1 2020 Update

#155

Post by loganfrederick »

tejohnso wrote: post #26
chollida1 wrote: post #2

Since, things are slow, my notes.... Misc: - Fremont plant idle since March 23rd - raised 2.3B in February, which seems really well timed now - Musk venting with "FREE AMERICA NOW" tweet makes him seem almost crazy - can see why Elon is going crazy on twitter, he'd almost turned around Telsa and now they may be in the worst cash crunch of their long life - Shanghai Giga reopened on Feb 10th, showing the importance of…

> can see why Elon is going crazy on twitter, he'd almost turned around Telsa and now they may be in the worst cash crunch of their long life With 8 billion in cash, and 3-4 billion per year burn rate, that's a two year buffer assuming no improvement. That doesn't seem like the worst cash crunch of their long life. What am I missing?

There's also a lot of questions on how much of that cash is tied into the China plant and Chinese relationship. Some analysts estimate that's about $2 billion of the $8B, so maybe a $1.5 billion buffer, and that's assuming some level of pre-covid demand.

Plus there's an argument to be made that a company isn't likely to actually run the cash all the way down to zero before waiving the desperation flag (I recall hearing GM had $1-$2 billion in cash when they filed bankruptcy in 2009).

Without knowing what the rest of 2020 demand looks like and the concerns above, the time horizon could easily be cut from your estimated 2 years down to 1. Only one year left to survive is a precarious situation.

Not saying that's guaranteed to happen, but the are plenty of valid concerns one would have as a common stock shareholder.

Re: Tesla Q1 2020 Update

#156

Post by xiphias2 »

gamblor956 wrote: post #95
mettamage wrote: post #59

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I'm not the best in expressing this, but I believe to think like Elon Musk (except I'm lazy and not that bright), I think there are quite a few that think like Elon. Yes, I know how it sounds, but if you're obsessed about truth there's a chance you think like him as well. IMO Elon Musk is rational and also expressive. He thinks from first principles (aka how does the world really work?) and he communicates that way.…

He thinks from first principles (aka how does the world really work?) and he communicates that way. Everyone does that. Most of us just aren't stupid until to think that this means we suddenly experts in fields we know nothing about, especially when the "first principles" Musk deals with are just simplified abstractions of very complicated subjects. Or all we all forgetting that Musk has claimed that a substance whic…

You're right in all of these, he doesn't care about the virus, because he's focused on stopping global warming and getting to Mars. Also he's probably not the nicest person with everybody, as that's also not his focus.

I would be much more worried if he stopped developing the autopilot hardware for example, thinking that the current

version has enough capacity for the necessary calculations. The truth is, even if it has (with the right algorithm), more computations mean that self driving can launch earlier.

It would be better for example if the Model Y wouldn't be manufactured with lots of errors that QA should have caught, but that's also secondary to getting self driving, which is an extremely hard problem.

Re: Tesla Q1 2020 Update

#157

Post by madeofpalk »

microtherion wrote: post #131
gamblor956 wrote: post #103

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Musk is worth $38.5 billion based on his current Tesla stock holdings at their current valuation. If he hits the trigger in his compensation package, he gets even more Tesla stock which will vastly increase his net worth on paper Also, Musk is loaded with debt because he leveraged his stock holdings to live a very lavish lifestyle, including multiple residential properties, vehicles, and very expensive dining choices…

Very expensive dining choices? How much truffled avocado toast do you have to eat to make a dent in his kind of wealth?

Flying premium cocaine in from wherever would be expensive, I guess.

But in all seriousness, lifestyle expenses scale with your income.

Re: Tesla Q1 2020 Update

#158

Post by Zenbit_UX »

markstos wrote: post #91
puranjay wrote: post #83

Earlier quoted context omitted.

To be fairly honest, lots of extremely competent people hold some batshit insane opinions about a lot of pretty important things. I posit Steve Jobs and his alternative therapy beliefs: https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC4924574/

What did you want readers to get out of that link to support your argument that Steve Jobs therapy beliefs were batshit insane? From the link: "It is unknown whether Jobs’ outcomes would have been different if he had pursued surgery at the time of his diagnosis, or if had followed a specific chemotherapy protocol. And it is unknown how effective any of his acupuncture, botanical and dietary approaches may have been b…

While not about therapy, his strict fruit diet despite all warnings should be evidence enough of Ops point.

Re: Tesla Q1 2020 Update

#159

Post by madeofpalk »

adventured wrote: post #43
slg wrote: post #18

Earlier quoted context omitted.

>- Musk venting with "FREE AMERICA NOW" tweet makes him seem almost crazy Musk is on the verge of a three quarter of billion dollar windfall if Tesla's six month average market cap exceeds $100b. I would guess that motivates his desire to open as soon as possible. https://www.reuters.com/article/us-tesla-stocks-musk/teslas-...

I doubt it. He's worth $38.5 billion; $26b of that is in Tesla. He can shave off hundreds of millions of dollars from that any day of the week - if he cared to do so. The compensation package is relatively small compared to his existing wealth already contained in Tesla. Wanting the company to succeed is what most likely motivates him, not the compensation package (which is aligned with his existing interests, even i…

People don’t get and stay rich by not earning money.

Re: Tesla Q1 2020 Update

#160

Post by tgsovlerkhgsel »

chollida1 wrote: post #2

Since, things are slow, my notes.... Misc: - Fremont plant idle since March 23rd - raised 2.3B in February, which seems really well timed now - Musk venting with "FREE AMERICA NOW" tweet makes him seem almost crazy - can see why Elon is going crazy on twitter, he'd almost turned around Telsa and now they may be in the worst cash crunch of their long life - Shanghai Giga reopened on Feb 10th, showing the importance of…

So they have 2 years of cash reserves, which will take them over to the Cybertruck release and the Berlin Gigafactory being complete?

Was the "cash crunch" statement already including this?

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