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First Case of New Coronavirus Detected in U.S.

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Re: First Case of New Coronavirus Detected in U.S.

#151

Post by Arn_Thor »

yread wrote: post #75

If you're scared just read the wiki on SARS - the previous coronavirus infection - to refresh your memory. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Timeline_of_the_SARS_outbreak It was a LOT worse that time - Chinese government basically covering up for the first 6 months, virus isolated only much later, sequenced months later.

The coverup is such an important part of why SARS turned out so bad. It mutated after the initial outbreak from a relatively benign virus to a much more deadly variety. (The longer the outbreak lasts and the more people are infected, the more likely such a mutation is) This time the Chinese government has been much more open (relatively), and the virus has been identified at a much earlier stage. I'd be pretty optimistic if it weren't for the Lunar New Year holiday, which could really screw up the efforts to contain the spread.

Re: First Case of New Coronavirus Detected in U.S.

#152

Post by 1-6 »

exposay wrote: post #108

China has been covering it up for 2 months. Minimal action was taken to prevent the disease from spreading and they kept denying until a couple days ago when it was no longer possible to cover it up because it is spreading to neighboring countries who have been complaining for the whole time. Regional/local governments have been trying to downplay it because it makes them "look bad". It is essentially a replay of SAR…

It's hard to cover it up now. It's called the Wuhan virus.

Re: First Case of New Coronavirus Detected in U.S.

#153

Post by ASalazarMX »

munificent wrote: post #63
glofish wrote: post #17

I feel like it has been so long since the swine flu, bird flu, H1N1 flu, and other flu scares that we are due for one. Like the recessions the flu scares are cyclical.

The Spanish Flu was almost exactly 100 years ago. Recent enough that we think of it as being in modern times with relatively modern medicine and hospitals. My grandmother lived through it, so this isn't the distant past. Current estimates are that it killed up to 100,000,000 million people, as many as the black plague. We have much better medicine now, thankfully. But we also live in a much more deeply connected worl…

> it killed up to 100,000,000 million people

Jesus Christ, that's more than 100,000 Earths! No wonder people were upset.

Joke aside, it was 50-100 million; the black plague was 100-200 million. Of course there was lot less people then.

Re: First Case of New Coronavirus Detected in U.S.

#154

Post by Merrill »

ping_pong wrote: post #70
aodin wrote: post #42

Earlier quoted context omitted.

While SARS does have a longer incubation period, typically 2-7 days compared to the common flu's 1-4 days, the "slow transmission" that you've witnessed is more likely the successful work of national and international public health agencies preventing its spread. Especially by means of contact tracing and quarantine. Seasonal flu variants have a lethality of around 0.1%. The Spanish flu of 1918 was around 2%. SARS ha…

SARS has a higher fatality rate than 10%. It's more like 25%. The reason why the numbers are so low is because China underreported the number of deaths. Look at Canada for a more reliable number. And that's not including any long term problems the infected people got even after recovering. My dad was in China during the SARS time. He said they shut down entire hospitals and basically let people die from it. These are…

>The WHO based its estimates on an analysis of the latest data from Canada, China, Hong Kong, Singapore, and Vietnam. "On the basis of more detailed and complete data, and more reliable methods, WHO now estimates that the case fatality ratio of SARS ranges from 0% to 50%, depending on the age group affected, with an overall estimate of case fatality of 14% to 15%," the agency's announcement said.

>The fatality ratio is less than 1% for people younger than 25, 6% for those aged 25 to 44, 15% for those aged 45 to 64, and more than 50% for people 65 or older, officials said.

>WHO officials observed that calculating the case-fatality ratio for a disease outbreak is difficult while the outbreak is still evolving. The true ratio cannot be determined until the outbreak is over, when the total numbers of deaths and recoveries are known.

http://www.cidrap.umn.edu/news-perspective/2003/05/estimates...

If it is similar to SARS, 19 nCoV could affect developed countries with elderly populations more.

Re: First Case of New Coronavirus Detected in U.S.

#156

Post by clanged »

kadoban wrote: post #2

Anyone have a sober perspective of how bad this is likely to get? Is this comparable to a bad but forgetten-by-the-next-year flu strain? To SARS? To the Spanish Flu?

On the average-case risk, it is unlikely to get "bad." (if bad is defined as being similar to SARS or MERS.) However, its current worst-case risk is similar severity, with n=(500-1000) individuals who may pass away fatally if it does get "bad."

Re: First Case of New Coronavirus Detected in U.S.

#157

Post by stevespang »

yzh wrote: post #137

It is not SARS, but it is highly possible that it was caused by people who kill and sell wild animals in the live poultry market. Where these animals like gem-faced civet got virus from bats. It is a long-held tradition for certain regions in China to eat wild animals. We even have a Chengyu called: 山珍海味, meaning precious and tasty animals from mountains and seas. Most wild animals are not evolved to be eaten by huma…

And yes, Chinese traditions are responsible for not only this virus, but also extinction of rhinos and elephants by way of their horns, tigers by way of their genitals, sharks by way of their fins, and who knows what else. This article shows it's all because of meat eaters: https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-01-20/china-s-f... Perhaps they should be punished much more harshly, even tortured in public, if that is what it takes to get change. These are the same people who can imprison / brainwash a million Uyghurs - - yet cannot close down all the wet markets spreading viruses in their country.

Re: First Case of New Coronavirus Detected in U.S.

#158

Post by incompatible »

bart_spoon wrote: post #10
AnimalMuppet wrote: post #4

A traveler from China landing on US soil, and detected at the airport (Seattle). This isn't spreading in the US population... yet. (And won't be from this, if containment procedures in Seattle work... and if they didn't transmit it to others on the plane... and maybe a few other ifs.)

According to the Washington Post[0], it wasn't caught at the airport, and he isn't a traveller, he is a resident in the Seattle area returning from China. > Washington state health officials said the man, a resident of Snohomish County, Wash., returned from a trip to the region around Wuhan, where the outbreak began. He arrived at Seattle’s international airport last Wednesday. Shortly afterward, he began feeling ill…

> he isn't a traveller, he is a resident in the Seattle area returning from China.

A traveller is somebody who travels, e.g., from Seattle to China and back.

Re: First Case of New Coronavirus Detected in U.S.

#159

Post by TallGuyShort »

EdibleMarbles wrote: post #102

If anyone wants to track the progression of the virus, I created a quick site with a Google Maps embed to show where the virus has been found so far. I'll be improving it over the next few days. http://www.coronavirusmap.com/

Is it just me, or does it not even have Wuhan?

Re: First Case of New Coronavirus Detected in U.S.

#160

Post by snapetom »

davidw wrote: post #34
djohnston wrote: post #32

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Since it was flagged, can you tell me how they were trying to blame Trump for this?

A more polite way of saying it would be along the lines of: We're in trouble if a real crisis hits where we depend on leadership to be intelligent, truthful, and have our best interests as a country at heart.

Haha, boy, you're giving the flagged commenter a lot of credit with that rephrasing. The original comment was something close to "Good thing we have a fucking idiot to watch our borders."
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