Hacker News Board Hacker News, browsed like a classic message board
Live data from Hacker News

Bernanke Says U.S. Economy Faces a ‘Wile E. Coyote’ Moment in 2020

bloomberg.com

Post reply on HN
Print view View original

151–160 of 228 posts

Re: Bernanke Says U.S. Economy Faces a ‘Wile E. Coyote’ Moment in 2020

#151

Post by 3pt14159 »

jjaredsimpson wrote: post #147
mhb wrote: post #71

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Become a good strategy? Pensions for government workers have been a thing for a very long time.

Pensions are fine if employers accurately discount present wages for the expected payment of future wages, and accurately forecast future population growth to maintain a good ratio of workers to retirees. Some governments seem to be quite bad at this though. States differ in pension liabilities and I haven't looked at the federal level.

It isn't that governments are bad at it, its that they have incentives to fuck it up. It's much easier politically to give the union what it wants and let it be some mess someone cleans up in 20 or 40 years.

Only if the electorate is intelligent / educated enough to call bullshit do they temper their bullshitery.

Re: Bernanke Says U.S. Economy Faces a ‘Wile E. Coyote’ Moment in 2020

#152

Post by pm90 »

Bucephalus355 wrote: post #10

Ben Bernanke’s point in his recent memoir is that central banks can only do so much. At the end of the day, monetary policy is not social change, moral evolution, or political coalition building. These things happen outside the Central Banking system and are just as important for a functioning economy. I know this sounds controversial, but at this point quite frankly the deficit does not matter. There is so much debt…

> It doesn’t help that China has essentially been spewing entirely fictitious accounting numbers for the last 20 years. It’s not even about padding an extra 10-15% anymore. There are journal articles out there claiming that Alibaba, a company as big as Oracle, is making up whole cloth 95% of it’s accounting statements. Ridiculous...

That can't be any good. The very foundation of modern nations is built on good accounting purposes. In fact, I read a book about how double entry accounting was one of the fundamental reasons for the growth of the British and later the American empire.

And yes while the deficit doesn't matter, good accounting absolutely does. Fudge those numbers and people lose trust in the system. That's how you create economic panics...

Re: Bernanke Says U.S. Economy Faces a ‘Wile E. Coyote’ Moment in 2020

#153

Post by peter303 »

okreallywtf wrote: post #133
ams6110 wrote: post #93

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Trump benefits from Obama's policies by reversing them.

I'm hesitant to give Obama credit, but I think Trump claiming that the unemployment rate was 30, 40, 50% during the election and immediately taking credit for the unemployment numbers in january 2017 was so disingenuous that it truly boggles the mind. Anyone that gives Trump credit for the current trajectory of unemployment numbers is beyond the pale. Giving Obama credit to me is at the very least questionable - thin…

Trump called the labor non participition rate, about 38%, the true unemployment rate. That would include his wife and three of his five children ...

Re: Bernanke Says U.S. Economy Faces a ‘Wile E. Coyote’ Moment in 2020

#154

Post by xyzzyz »

ebbv wrote: post #148
mhb wrote: post #71

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Become a good strategy? Pensions for government workers have been a thing for a very long time.

Pensions are not inherently a problem any more than any other form of retirement account is. HN should be above this kind of ignorant rhetoric.

Of course they are more of a problem, just like a mortgage is more risky than saving up to buy a house with cash upfront — pensions create a long term liability in a way that putting cash in employee 401k doesn’t. Even more importantly, with pensions you’re taking a mortgage that is deferred for a few decades, and someone else than you will be responsible for paying it off — by the time the pension benefits come to mature, people who made the deal are long gone, and won’t take any responsibility. It gives them an incentive to make a bad deal to make pensioners happy now, and let someone else deal with the problem of funding them later on.

Re: Bernanke Says U.S. Economy Faces a ‘Wile E. Coyote’ Moment in 2020

#155

Post by peter303 »

mindcrime wrote: post #87

“The economy is already at full employment.” I'm not sure that's actually true. Yes, the govt. reported "official" unemployment number is 3.8% or whatever. BUT... that comes with a couple of big, big caveats: 1. Those numbers by definition don't include job-seekers who have left the market and quit being job-seekers. IOW, people who became so despondent that they gave up. But, there's nothing specific that stops thes…

The BLS compiles six unemployment numbers, of which U-3 is routinely reported. U-6 covers the factors you mention and is approximately double U-3. https://www.bls.gov/news.release/empsit.t15.htm

Re: Bernanke Says U.S. Economy Faces a ‘Wile E. Coyote’ Moment in 2020

#156

Post by diogenescynic »

megaman22 wrote: post #113
ams6110 wrote: post #93

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Trump benefits from Obama's policies by reversing them.

It's startling what the growth on my 401k has done since November 2016. Essentially flat for years before, then immediately jumping, once the election results were in. Q1 2018 was a bit sluggish, but it's back on that tragectory again. Even outside the market, people are hiring again, companies are making investments, it's a hell of a turn around.

>Essentially flat for years before

You must be a terrible investor then, the DOW under Obama went from ~7,000 to 18,000, unemployment fell from 10% to 5%, nearly 20 million gained healthcare under the ACA, and the economy gained 11.6 million jobs. Obama's numbers blow Trump's away.

Re: Bernanke Says U.S. Economy Faces a ‘Wile E. Coyote’ Moment in 2020

#157

Post by aurailious »

megaman22 wrote: post #113
ams6110 wrote: post #93

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Trump benefits from Obama's policies by reversing them.

It's startling what the growth on my 401k has done since November 2016. Essentially flat for years before, then immediately jumping, once the election results were in. Q1 2018 was a bit sluggish, but it's back on that tragectory again. Even outside the market, people are hiring again, companies are making investments, it's a hell of a turn around.

You must have had your 401k with a terrible bank then.

Re: Bernanke Says U.S. Economy Faces a ‘Wile E. Coyote’ Moment in 2020

#158

Post by matte_black »

Clubber wrote: post #36
komali2 wrote: post #28

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Conveniently, my finances should be in order for a house purchase around then.

Don't downvote. The best time to invest is during a recession. Everyone should be saving money today for the next one, then buy.

Indeed, for some buying during a recession is the only shot they have at home ownership. Prices are only going up now.

Re: Bernanke Says U.S. Economy Faces a ‘Wile E. Coyote’ Moment in 2020

#159

Post by mhb »

jjaredsimpson wrote: post #147
mhb wrote: post #71

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Become a good strategy? Pensions for government workers have been a thing for a very long time.

Pensions are fine if employers accurately discount present wages for the expected payment of future wages, and accurately forecast future population growth to maintain a good ratio of workers to retirees. Some governments seem to be quite bad at this though. States differ in pension liabilities and I haven't looked at the federal level.

Probably some governments are bad at it because knowing what will happen in the future, which you need to in order to keep a defined benefit plan solvent, is impossible. Other governments/employers were luckier.

But it's not so hard to say that you can do it.

Re: Bernanke Says U.S. Economy Faces a ‘Wile E. Coyote’ Moment in 2020

#160

Post by defen »

komali2 wrote: post #27
dgzl wrote: post #22

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The poster's sentiment is correct is saying that it's a good idea to have low-risk resources available as a safety net. However I'd say having physical things like items you know you'll need in the future, or food storage, would be more valuable than having cash. Inflation wouldn't hurt the value of a computer or food you already own. In the other hand, I would imagine investing in gold would be a good idea as well.

I always think of it in disaster tiers. Market slowdown, you'll want your bonds. Recession, you'll want your cash. Depression, you'll want gold and barterable goods. Economic collapse or apocalypse, you'll want food, medicine, and alcohol (possibly the most barterable good, also delicious). In any case anybody reading this in a major city faces non zero likelihood of disaster (take your pick for your city, hurricane,…

> Economic collapse or apocalypse, you'll want food, medicine, and alcohol (possibly the most barterable good, also delicious).

Also:

Potassium iodide in case of nuclear fallout ($9 for 2-week supply)

Chlorine dioxide for water purification ($10 for 1-week supply)

Both are pretty shelf stable (4-6 years) so you don't need to keep buying them.

Post reply on HN