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Bernanke Says U.S. Economy Faces a ‘Wile E. Coyote’ Moment in 2020

bloomberg.com

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Re: Bernanke Says U.S. Economy Faces a ‘Wile E. Coyote’ Moment in 2020

#31

Post by cahomeown456 »

jihadjihad wrote: post #17
joshuaheard wrote: post #11

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Please don't read anything by Paul Krugman, unless you believe we are in the global recession he predicted after Trump's election.

While this particular prediction didn't (yet) come true, Krugman is at least one of the few name-brand economists who will admit when he is wrong. He's also got a Nobel in the field, so to write off his textbook as unreadable for a failed prediction seems like a little much.

An economics Nobel is not the same thing as a Nobel in (for example) Physics, and citing it as an appeal to authority is intentionally misleading.

Re: Bernanke Says U.S. Economy Faces a ‘Wile E. Coyote’ Moment in 2020

#32

Post by cahomeown456 »

wjn0 wrote: post #3

When I read articles like this I wish I had a better grounding in economics, I guess specifically macroeconomics? Is there a well-known, digestible textbook?

This is good as an alternative take: https://www.amazon.com/Debunking-Economics-Revised-Expanded-...

Re: Bernanke Says U.S. Economy Faces a ‘Wile E. Coyote’ Moment in 2020

#34

Post by cobbzilla »

Bucephalus355 wrote: post #10

Ben Bernanke’s point in his recent memoir is that central banks can only do so much. At the end of the day, monetary policy is not social change, moral evolution, or political coalition building. These things happen outside the Central Banking system and are just as important for a functioning economy. I know this sounds controversial, but at this point quite frankly the deficit does not matter. There is so much debt…

Writing off sovereign debt always comes with strings attached for the creditors - the terms will by definition be anti-democratic and could be incredibly dangerous. An improvement in global inequality is not a likely outcome.

Re: Bernanke Says U.S. Economy Faces a ‘Wile E. Coyote’ Moment in 2020

#36

Post by Clubber »

komali2 wrote: post #28
matte_black wrote: post #6

This is consistent with what I’ve heard. Seems no one expects a recession until at least 2020 or 2021. Be ready.

Conveniently, my finances should be in order for a house purchase around then.

Don't downvote. The best time to invest is during a recession. Everyone should be saving money today for the next one, then buy.

Re: Bernanke Says U.S. Economy Faces a ‘Wile E. Coyote’ Moment in 2020

#37

Post by the_watcher »

Bucephalus355 wrote: post #10

Ben Bernanke’s point in his recent memoir is that central banks can only do so much. At the end of the day, monetary policy is not social change, moral evolution, or political coalition building. These things happen outside the Central Banking system and are just as important for a functioning economy. I know this sounds controversial, but at this point quite frankly the deficit does not matter. There is so much debt…

> There are journal articles out there claiming that Alibaba, a company as big as Oracle, is making up whole cloth 95% of it’s accounting statements.

Do you have a source for this? I'm not doubting you, but I've never heard this and would like to learn more if possible.

Re: Bernanke Says U.S. Economy Faces a ‘Wile E. Coyote’ Moment in 2020

#38

Post by coliveira »

smallnamespace wrote: post #5

The combination of tax repatriation, tax cuts, and large-scale deficit spending (fiscal expansion) late in the economic cycle (recessions typically happen every 8 years or so, and the current expansion has been going on for ~10 yrs now) while the Federal reserve is raising interest rates (monetary 'contraction') is more or less unprecedented (we've never seen it happen in modern times in the US or any other large dev…

The so called business cycle is created by the FED itself. Left uncontrolled, the market will disconnect from reality and create bubbles that can destroy the economy, as it did in 1929. The unrecognized work of the FED is to increase the interest rates periodically to force these bubbles to pop and create a minor recession before they can collapse the economy. The real risk of this cycle is that the FED has already lost the opportunity to contain a major bubble which is already forming in the stock market.

Re: Bernanke Says U.S. Economy Faces a ‘Wile E. Coyote’ Moment in 2020

#39

Post by hmate9 »

mandeepj wrote: post #35
alex_young wrote: post #24

Remember that economists have predicted 15 of the last 7 recessions. Hold on to your hats.

> predicted 15 of the last 7 recessions Did you mean to say 17 instead of 7?

I don’t think so. He’s basically saying there is always somebody saying the economy will collapse and there are always people saying the economy is going to be stronger than ever.

Re: Bernanke Says U.S. Economy Faces a ‘Wile E. Coyote’ Moment in 2020

#40

Post by ianai »

komali2 wrote: post #23
ianai wrote: post #14

Earlier quoted context omitted.

You’re probably basing that on data benefiting from a supervisory political institution. If that data exist.

If you're about to argue that there wouldn't be business cycles or depressions if we managed to overthrow capitalism, I don't think people are going to disagree with you lol

No, I’m saying that without the Fed and the federal government acting to rationally steer markets the markets will go off a cliff and not come back. Just like Bernanke said here. Regulators matter. When the government stimulates the already hot market with lax taxes and high spending it’s like pouring liquid oxygen onto a flame.
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