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Tesla Model 3 Hits Production

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Re: Tesla Model 3 Hits Production

#152
post #34

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The Fiat 500e is extremely cheap to lease ($87/month). Last year there was even a point where it was $1500 down, since you get a $2500 incentive check from California if you got that deal you were basically being paid to take it. Most people would be fine with an EV given how much they actually drive, it's not just for rich people.

and then you ignore that a cheap ev can't be the only car for a person, specially out of san fran. so now you have two insurances. two garages or live well enough to have two street parking. two maintenance bills. etc. etc.

Why can't a cheap EV be the only car for a person? Most people drive I drive a four door sedan currently. It doesn't handle 100% of my motoring needs, that doesn't mean I need to own a moving van for that 0.1% of the time I need it. I just go rent it. It also isn't able to be checked as luggage when I travel, and so I rent a car when I arrive at my destination (if needed). I don't pay someone to transport the car to wherever I'm going.

This argument that EVs need to support 100% of all driving needs before they are acceptable is ridiculous. No vehicle handles 100% of driving needs.

My current car is a BMW M3, but I'm replacing it with a 530e (plugin hybrid). The 530e can't do everything the M3 could do from a performance standpoint, but it will be able to handle 80-90% of my driving needs in 100% electric mode. I'm 100% confident that my fiance's next car will be a pure electric vehicle (likely a next-gen Nissan Leaf or Chevy Bolt) that will handle 100% of her average daily driving needs. The only time we'll need to rent a car for her is when she needs to go on drives longer than 200 miles or so. That only happens 3 or 4 times a year, so we're not too worried about it as Enterprise will "pick us up."

Re: Tesla Model 3 Hits Production

#153

Earlier quoted context omitted.

^ This. The Model S has a lot more in common with a mid-high range Mercedes or a low end Ferrari. Anybody who owns an exotic car like that will tell you, you do not buy those for the reliability. It's also worth noting the Model S is, and is marketed to the audience for, a performance car. When you put down that kind of money, you're going to drive it like one. If you drove a Honda like a Ferrari you'd likely break a…

> If you drove a Honda like a Ferrari you'd likely break a whole lot of it's "reliable" parts too. You really need to stop drinking the Tesla kool-aid. Of course people drive Honda's like Ferraris. And guess what, the Honda's don't break as easily as the Teslas.

My own observations of Honda vehicles suggest differently, but I have very few observations of Tesla vehicles, so I don't really have enough of a point of comparison to really disagree with that assertion.

Re: Tesla Model 3 Hits Production

#154

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I had a Passat a few years back and it had a design flaw where the tray that holds the battery has drain holes that can get blocked and if they do it overflows into the interior of the car. I used to park my car under trees that dropped leaves which blocked the battery compartment drainage holes and as I am in Scotland it can get quite wet. Ended up with car filled with 1" of water.... Interior of car had to be strip…

I'm always tempted to test drive stylish German cars but I swear 90% of the maintenance horror stories I've heard in the last 15 years have involved a German car.

Not sure I would describe a Passat as "stylish" :-)

Re: Tesla Model 3 Hits Production

#155

Earlier quoted context omitted.

^ This. The Model S has a lot more in common with a mid-high range Mercedes or a low end Ferrari. Anybody who owns an exotic car like that will tell you, you do not buy those for the reliability. It's also worth noting the Model S is, and is marketed to the audience for, a performance car. When you put down that kind of money, you're going to drive it like one. If you drove a Honda like a Ferrari you'd likely break a…

> If you drove a Honda like a Ferrari you'd likely break a whole lot of it's "reliable" parts too. You really need to stop drinking the Tesla kool-aid. Of course people drive Honda's like Ferraris. And guess what, the Honda's don't break as easily as the Teslas.

I'm not drinking anybody's kool-aid. If you think a 691 bhp Tesla is going to wear it's parts the same way as a 278 bhp Accord, I have no words for you. That's not even taking into account the much higher acceleration forces, G-forces, etc. that the parts in a Tesla are going to be dealing with, plus the fact that it has a completely different center of gravity and that affects how every component of the suspension wears.

I'm not saying Tesla build quality is higher or lower, I'm saying it's comparing apples and oranges. Once Tesla has a production everyman's car available, then you can actually say something. I know five people who own Model S's and they do not drive them like Accords, and if their stories are anything to go by, most people who own them drive them like performance cars. That means hard corners, rapid acceleration and deceleration, and high speeds (and given the crap quality of our roads around here, a lot of turbulence too).

It's also worth noting that Honda's have decades upon decades of previous models to build off of. Tesla's been around since what, 2003? And they didn't have a car to show until 2008.

Re: Tesla Model 3 Hits Production

#156
post #45
post #27

Earlier quoted context omitted.

No worries, they will add more. Before you disagree, remember there was a time they went from exactly zero HOV lanes to one.. which is an infinite increase. This time they will go from whatever they have now (usually one) to two, which is at most only a 100% increase. Also keep in mind the day will come that all roads will only permit electric vehicles, essentially meaning all lanes are "HOV". So from 2017 -> the fut…

> Also keep in mind the day will come that all roads will only permit electric vehicles, That would be pretty dumb. This is a very strange claim from an overlander (assuming you agree with it); surely you're aware that batteries are nowhere near the energy density of chemical fuel, and probably won't be for a long time. We're even further away from practical electric ATVs or motorcycles. Banning gas vehicles in the n…

>We're even further away from practical electric ATVs or motorcycles

I literally googled "electric motorcycles" and the first result proved you wrong: http://www.zeromotorcycles.com/motorcycles/

Googling "electric ATV" again proves you wrong: http://www.polaris.com/en-us/ranger-utv/ranger-ev-avalanche-...

As far as banning non-zero emission vehicles? In cities, especially in Europe, it's likely to happen a lot sooner than you might think.

And sure, rural areas will depend on ICE vehicles for longer than urban areas. That's no different than how there are plenty of places where it still makes more sense to ride a horse than to drive a vehicle. Edge cases are edge cases.

Re: Tesla Model 3 Hits Production

#157
post #62

There is no way on god's earth that Tesla can ramp up production like that. I suspect the first cars that they sell will roll off the VP tools and not off the main lines anyway. With a lack of product maturation the quality of the first cars will be appalling too. I'd bet that the guys at the coal face are wanting to kill their PR people right now for making promises that they know will get broken. Disclosure: work i…

People said the exact same thing when Musk announced SpaceX. Then they said no big deal after the Falcon 1 worked, and laughed when Musk said he was going to land the Falcon 9 on a barge in the ocean, then he did. Next they said there was simply no way SpaceX would be able to refly a used first stage, which they've now successfully done twice.

History of his accomplishments show us "industry knowledge" doesn't really matter as he's trying to do things explicitly different than the rest of the industry.

Re: Tesla Model 3 Hits Production

#158

I wonder if Tesla is worried that this new model might cannibalize its more expensive, more profitable model S? Also, I should think that the level of automation required to produce a mass market car on the scale necessary to be profitable would be insane... And I bet Toyota, GM and all the others have patents on many, if not all of these production automation technologies.

My fear is more that due to model S many people have unrealistic expectations about a $35k car and end up disappointed.

Re: Tesla Model 3 Hits Production

#159
post #157
post #62

There is no way on god's earth that Tesla can ramp up production like that. I suspect the first cars that they sell will roll off the VP tools and not off the main lines anyway. With a lack of product maturation the quality of the first cars will be appalling too. I'd bet that the guys at the coal face are wanting to kill their PR people right now for making promises that they know will get broken. Disclosure: work i…

People said the exact same thing when Musk announced SpaceX. Then they said no big deal after the Falcon 1 worked, and laughed when Musk said he was going to land the Falcon 9 on a barge in the ocean, then he did. Next they said there was simply no way SpaceX would be able to refly a used first stage, which they've now successfully done twice. History of his accomplishments show us "industry knowledge" doesn't really…

What's more, a lot of the materials science and metalworking "lessons learned" (particularly when it comes to working with aluminum) at SpaceX are available to Tesla.

Re: Tesla Model 3 Hits Production

#160
post #157
post #62

There is no way on god's earth that Tesla can ramp up production like that. I suspect the first cars that they sell will roll off the VP tools and not off the main lines anyway. With a lack of product maturation the quality of the first cars will be appalling too. I'd bet that the guys at the coal face are wanting to kill their PR people right now for making promises that they know will get broken. Disclosure: work i…

People said the exact same thing when Musk announced SpaceX. Then they said no big deal after the Falcon 1 worked, and laughed when Musk said he was going to land the Falcon 9 on a barge in the ocean, then he did. Next they said there was simply no way SpaceX would be able to refly a used first stage, which they've now successfully done twice. History of his accomplishments show us "industry knowledge" doesn't really…

Musk seems to set high goals with the full intention of meeting them, but shrugging it off if he's wrong in the end so long as progress was made. In the end the goal doesn't matter, just the progress, which was certainly affected positively by the goal.
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