Scroll to the end. This is a $30M grant to the guy's roommate and future brother-in-law. Unbelievable.
I scrolled to the end and can see why someone would question that. But framing it as a personal grant is misleading. If we're going to keep telling users that on HN we want them to make substantive points thoughtfully and apply the principle of charity, it's only fair to say so here as well. We like pith, but fairness more. (In case anyone is curious, I don't know anything about the story; I just saw it on HN.)
Open Philanthropy Project awards a grant of $30M to OpenAI
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Re: Open Philanthropy Project awards a grant of $30M to OpenAI
#152Can someone explain why both orgs contain the world "Open" - I would say pretty misleading. OpenAI hasn't released any open code or anything open. And is OpenAI even about A.I.? (as several other here mentioned it's not AI)
Re: Open Philanthropy Project awards a grant of $30M to OpenAI
#153Earlier quoted context omitted.
I scrolled to the end and can see why someone would question that. But framing it as a personal grant is misleading. If we're going to keep telling users that on HN we want them to make substantive points thoughtfully and apply the principle of charity, it's only fair to say so here as well. We like pith, but fairness more. (In case anyone is curious, I don't know anything about the story; I just saw it on HN.)
Do you/YC have any personal or financial connection to the "Open Philanthropy Project"? Just curious.
Re: Open Philanthropy Project awards a grant of $30M to OpenAI
#154Earlier quoted context omitted.
I don't see this as a problem. If I had tons of money and knew someone (by any connection) who was doing amazing work I would definitely chip in.
It's not his money, though. Also, when you invest in your friend's business, you don't get to deduct that in your taxes.
Re: Open Philanthropy Project awards a grant of $30M to OpenAI
#155Re: Open Philanthropy Project awards a grant of $30M to OpenAI
#156Earlier quoted context omitted.
Do you/YC have any personal or financial connection to the "Open Philanthropy Project"? Just curious.
I don't, and only hear of these things when they show up on HN. No idea about YC but I doubt it.
Re: Open Philanthropy Project awards a grant of $30M to OpenAI
#157Earlier quoted context omitted.
There are always going to be more important causes, under any particular person's view of "more important", which depends very strongly on both subjective values and (in the case of AI alignment work) on precise probabilities of far-future outcomes. A dollar given to the Against Malaria Foundation will do a lot more good, in QALY terms, than the same dollar spent in Flint. And both dollars will do more (direct) good…
Nothing about OpenAI actually addresses any real world problem. So i have a problem with their rhetoric as much as their research agenda. Nothing they're writing about addresses any of the real world problems with how AI can or might be applied in society. They're a non-profit research lab with no clear agenda and no clear connection to how they plan to interrogate the world which seems like an important part of the…
I'm not sure I buy it, but that's what I think it is.
Re: Open Philanthropy Project awards a grant of $30M to OpenAI
#158Earlier quoted context omitted.
Experts in the field of AI have a long history of being wrong. "AI is 20 years" away has become the standard joke in the field. There is no reason to grant expert opinion on this topic any weight.
What's your suggested alternative? It's really easy to criticize, but a lot harder to do any better. If you aren't suggesting any other methods, you're implicitly saying we should just ignore the problem. I really don't think that will end well.
You can do better solving a terrible problem that does exist than solving a sci-fi problem that doesn't exist.
I know it's usually uncouth to compare different charities like this, but that's exactly what Effective Altruism was supposed to be about, and this cause directly competes with curing malaria.
If more than zero AGI technology starts existing, we can re-prioritize. It makes no sense for a field to go from not existing to superhuman performance without anyone noticing.
Re: Open Philanthropy Project awards a grant of $30M to OpenAI
#159Earlier quoted context omitted.
"We can formally prove what a system is capable of." This is not true. By Rice's theorem, either the system is too dumb to be useful, or we can't prove what it can do.
This is an abuse of Rice's theorem (which seems to be getting more common). Rice's theorem says that no program can correctly decide what an arbitrary program will do , not that no properties of programs can be proven. There are useful programs about which non-trivial properties can be, and have been, proven, and Rice's theorem is no limit on the complexity of an individual program about which a property may be prove…
* Building AI is a race against time, and in such races, victory is most easily achieved by those who can cut the most corners while still successfully producing the product.
* As a route to general AI, a neural architecture seems plausible. (Not at the current state-of-the-art, of course.)
* Neural networks (as they currently stand) are famously extremely hard to analyse: certainly we have no good reason to believe they're more easily analysed than a random arbitrary program.
* A team which is racing to make a neural-architecture AI has little incentive to even try to make their AI easy to analyse. Either it does the job or it doesn't. (Witness the current attempts to produce self-driving cars through deep learning.) Any further effort spent on making an easily-analysable AI is effort which is wasting time that another team is using just to build the damn thing.
* Therefore, absent a heroic effort to the contrary, the first AI will be a program which is as hard as a random arbitrary program to analyse. And, as much as I hate to appeal to Wolfram, he has abundantly shown that random arbitrary programs, even very simply-specified ones, tend to be hard to analyse in practice.
(My argument doesn't actually require a neural architecture of the AI; it's just a proxy for a general unanalyseable thing.)
Re: Open Philanthropy Project awards a grant of $30M to OpenAI
#160Earlier quoted context omitted.
I didn't address airgappedness at all, but you may still be wrong: we use the superintelligence's output, or else why would we have created it, so we are the channel by which it affects the world. Anyway, who knows what can be done by a superintelligence which can control a stream of electrons emitted from its own CPU!
Well, exactly as much as any other cpus can do by solely controlling it's output electrons: not much. Let's not ascribe deity-like powers to things that we can understand fairly well.