Tesla Says Model 3 on Track as Quarterly Loss Beats Estimates • Hacker News Board

Re: Tesla Says Model 3 on Track as Quarterly Loss Beats Estimates

#151

Post by erikpukinskis » Thu, Feb 23, 2017, 4:53 AM UTC

zump wrote: post #70

austenallred wrote: post #57

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Definitely not something any sane money manager would recommend. I accept the risk. I could go to zero and crawl my way back pretty quickly.

Err, how?

If you can earn $150k a year, and your living expenses are $30k and you have no kids, you can squirrel away cash pretty fast.

Tesla is certainly a risk, but it's one of the few companies that actually has a plan which would lead to a trillion dollar market cap if successful. It's not insane to put the bulk of your net worth in an investment like that if you only care about potential upside, not the downside.

Re: Tesla Says Model 3 on Track as Quarterly Loss Beats Estimates

#152

Post by erikpukinskis » Thu, Feb 23, 2017, 5:11 AM UTC

dingo_bat wrote: post #119

toomuchtodo wrote: post #48

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Huge fan boy here. I'm not saying he does no wrong; he's ruined his first, second, and third marriages. He's probably not around at all for his five kids. Its assuredly soul crushing (workload/expectation-wise, not mission, which makes a huge difference) working for him. But he's changing the world. So I give the guy wide latitude with my opinion. At least he's not yet another useless silicon valley billionaire. He i…

> He is the least terrible billionaire industrialist IMHO. I'd say Bill gates still retains that title.

Only if you ignore his time at Microsoft.

Yes, he has done great things since he left. But he set the computer industry back decades with his predatory business tactics.

A big part of the reason why we have so many walled gardens now is because he started the trend. And we're lucky we have multiple walled gardens. If he had succeeded a little longer we'd still only have one big one.

Re: Tesla Says Model 3 on Track as Quarterly Loss Beats Estimates

#153

Post by sumedh » Thu, Feb 23, 2017, 5:19 AM UTC

vanattab wrote: post #107

mdasen wrote: post #97

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Shorting seems to often be about the short-term prospects of the stock. Long term, Tesla looks like it will be a reasonable company. But will it justify its stock price? Tesla is a $45B company right now. Toyota is $188B (4.1x more valuable), VW is $78B (1.7x), GM is $58B (1.3x), Ford is $51B (1.1x), Nissan is $42B (0.9x), Fiat Chrysler is $17B (0.4x), Honda is $58B (1.3x), BMW is $56B (1.2x), Daimler is $79B (1.8x),…

Thanks for taking the time to write this. I was an investor for a while in tesla and had a good ride for sure but sold for many of the reasons you articulated. At this point the hype machine is totally out of control there is no way justify the realitive evaluations of tesla verse the other car companies.

> At this point the hype machine is totally out of control there is no way justify the relative evaluations of tesla

I have been hearing the same argument for the last 3 years now.

Re: Tesla Says Model 3 on Track as Quarterly Loss Beats Estimates

#154

Post by tokipin » Thu, Feb 23, 2017, 5:28 AM UTC

aerovistae wrote: post #3

It's fun to read Mark Spiegel's twitter feed. I've never seen someone so desperately try to force a theory. I wonder why some people want to see Tesla fail so badly.

Its politicization during Obama's first term (Solyndra et al) threw it into the conservative news grinder, and for many people it's still spinning in that context. This is probably where the whole "Tesla is only alive because of government life support. And look at SpaceX just SIPHON cash straight outta NASA's coffers!" stuff comes from.

Re: Tesla Says Model 3 on Track as Quarterly Loss Beats Estimates

#155

Post by tokipin » Thu, Feb 23, 2017, 5:35 AM UTC

paulpauper wrote: post #20

People who lose money shorting Tesla are losing their shirts for the same reason as those who shorted Amazon: cash flow + growth matters more than profitability, PE ratios, or EPS. Tesla's car business is cash flow positive but the quarterly losses are due to infrastructure investments. This is how finance can be more subtle than meets the eye. Tesla's car business is very profitable: Tesla also reported an automotiv…

The stock is fascinating to watch because of how binary the perception of the company is. After doing some sophisticated psychoanalysis™, the sharpest distinction I've found between the two opposing viewpoints is design. People who don't understand Tesla tend to be the same people who didn't (and still don't) understand the iPhone. For these people, the Model S is just another car, in the same way that the iPhone would have seemed like "just another cell phone". The idea that "just another car" is going to beat companies that are already making cars (and have been doing so since forever) doesn't make sense.

Related to this is people getting stuck on the idea of an "EV market", which I don't think was ever really a thing. Tesla has been competing in the same car market that every other car company competes in. The electric drivetrain may be a major factor in enabling a superior design, but most people don't care. I think many short sellers are attributing Tesla's sales to "EV buyers" rather than to "people that buy cars that are better than other cars". These are two very different beliefs about what's going on.

The financial arguments are (in my opinion) largely after-the-fact rationalizations.

Re: Tesla Says Model 3 on Track as Quarterly Loss Beats Estimates

#156

Post by semi-extrinsic » Thu, Feb 23, 2017, 5:51 AM UTC

tbabb wrote: post #116

mstachowiak wrote: post #113

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I would propose viewing Tesla as an energy storage company, not a car company (JB and Elon both think of Tesla this way). The car is a battery on wheels, and the battery is the product. They're not trying to be the next BMW, and attempts to value them through this lense will miss the mark.

> I would propose viewing Tesla as an energy storage company Yeah, I'd say it would not be unfair to compare future Tesla to a company like GE ($270B mkt cap). Optimistic, but not irrational.

I beg to differ - GE is not an energy company, it's a multinational conglomorate heavily involved also in a dozen other fields like oil&gas, aviation, healthcare, home appliances, finance, research and transportation.

GE Healthcare alone employs >40 000 people and does >4x the revenue of Tesla today.

Maybe if Tesla merged with SpaceX and also with five-six other large companies you'd be about right.

Re: Tesla Says Model 3 on Track as Quarterly Loss Beats Estimates

#157

Post by intrasight » Thu, Feb 23, 2017, 6:09 AM UTC

mdasen wrote: post #97

paulpauper wrote: post #20

People who lose money shorting Tesla are losing their shirts for the same reason as those who shorted Amazon: cash flow + growth matters more than profitability, PE ratios, or EPS. Tesla's car business is cash flow positive but the quarterly losses are due to infrastructure investments. This is how finance can be more subtle than meets the eye. Tesla's car business is very profitable: Tesla also reported an automotiv…

Shorting seems to often be about the short-term prospects of the stock. Long term, Tesla looks like it will be a reasonable company. But will it justify its stock price? Tesla is a $45B company right now. Toyota is $188B (4.1x more valuable), VW is $78B (1.7x), GM is $58B (1.3x), Ford is $51B (1.1x), Nissan is $42B (0.9x), Fiat Chrysler is $17B (0.4x), Honda is $58B (1.3x), BMW is $56B (1.2x), Daimler is $79B (1.8x),…

Upvoted for making a good argument that was worth my time reading it. That's what I come to HN for.

Re: Tesla Says Model 3 on Track as Quarterly Loss Beats Estimates

#158

Post by intrasight » Thu, Feb 23, 2017, 6:14 AM UTC

Reason077 wrote: post #105

mdasen wrote: post #97

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Shorting seems to often be about the short-term prospects of the stock. Long term, Tesla looks like it will be a reasonable company. But will it justify its stock price? Tesla is a $45B company right now. Toyota is $188B (4.1x more valuable), VW is $78B (1.7x), GM is $58B (1.3x), Ford is $51B (1.1x), Nissan is $42B (0.9x), Fiat Chrysler is $17B (0.4x), Honda is $58B (1.3x), BMW is $56B (1.2x), Daimler is $79B (1.8x),…

Tesla is a $45B company right now. Perhaps that sounds like a lot. But consider that Uber is valued at $68B.

Tesla should buy Uber and get that house in order. Also makes sense since the future is "mobility services" and neither alone can deliver on that promise.

Re: Tesla Says Model 3 on Track as Quarterly Loss Beats Estimates

#159

Post by linkregister » Thu, Feb 23, 2017, 6:14 AM UTC

erikpukinskis wrote: post #147

isaacn wrote: post #128

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I think the strategic direction of Tesla is going to create considerable value in the long term - not just in selling cars, but in the industry dominating direction they seem to be headed. For example, I think of the charger network alone as the future of the gas station, and could be a deciding factor when consumers are considering one brand of electric car vs. another. Self driving technology is another race where…

> I can see a world where consumer decide to purchase cars based on their technology and charger networks alone Once there's an autonomous driver it's really just about the cabin accoutrements.

Safety? Reliability? Cost? Maintenance burden? Maybe some other stuff too.

Re: Tesla Says Model 3 on Track as Quarterly Loss Beats Estimates

#160

Post by deboflo » Thu, Feb 23, 2017, 6:25 AM UTC

austenallred wrote: post #78

zump wrote: post #70

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Err, how?

By making a lot more now than I used to

Seems crazy, but is actually a smart move.

I own 3,000 Tesla shares. Purchased most shares at $30 after driving my model s from the factory. I have seen my net worth get cut in half when tsla went from $280 to $140, but never sold any.

LinkedIn, a crappy website, was recently purchased by Microsoft for $30 billion. That's about how much Tesla's market capitalization was 2 months ago.

Take a look at the all of the industries that will be impacted by the convergence of self driving cars, electric cars, and ride sharing.

The global parking industry alone, is a $100 billion dollar industry. Other impacted industries include oil, traditional auto, car insurance, auto repair/servicing/maintenance, auto dealers, etc.

Batteries are getting cheaper than anyone ever expected at this point. Solar recently became more competitive for electricity generation than fossil fuels.

The dam is about to burst.