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NHTSA’s full investigation into Tesla’s Autopilot shows 40% crash rate reduction

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Re: NHTSA’s full investigation into Tesla’s Autopilot shows 40% crash rate reduction

#151

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Then sell the customers list to law enforcement to make side money! What a fantastic time to live in SV!

Sell the list of those using social media in the car to existing advertisers too. Extra high levels of engagement!

Then post a joke thread about it on HN. Maximum Reddit!

[Seriously, though. I don't want to downvote everyone in a chain but there's probably a more HN/SNR-friendly way to comment on potential abuses of automaker access to social media feeds.]

Re: NHTSA’s full investigation into Tesla’s Autopilot shows 40% crash rate reduction

#152

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The car should immediately pull over and shut down if it detects any activity on the driver's Twitter or Facebook feeds: Social Media Strike Out!

Would require you to link your social media accounts to your car so easily avoided.

Oh, I think the car would be able to learn your social media accounts after a while, just looking for any geotagged posts that tend to match the car's position

Re: NHTSA’s full investigation into Tesla’s Autopilot shows 40% crash rate reduction

#153
post #23

The 40% number isn't very informative. The report has multiple notes about it: ODI analyzed data from crashes of Tesla Model S and Model X vehicles involving airbag deployments that occurred while operating in, or within 15 seconds of transitioning from, Autopilot mode. Some crashes involved impacts from other vehicles striking the Tesla from various directions with little to no warning to the Tesla driver. ODI analy…

That really looks like a terribly small dataset on the "before autosteer" side. According to footnote 21, we are looking exclusively at the sum of miles Teslas had on the clock when someone paid for the post-factory activation. Due to the growth of Tesla sales, that set is likely biased quite a bit towards younger cars with few miles at time of update availability. Tens of millions of miles might sound impressive for a statistical base, but tens of airbag activations does not.

At least they did not compare "all Teslas" vs "Teslas with Autopilot Technology Package checkbox checked", since that would select for drivers who do a lot of miles in boring long distance driving. That kind of driving happens to be the one where any car has an "airbag mileage" far above average, so it would be just natural that they have a lower crash rate, autosteer or not.

But a part of that effect might still be present in the numbers if customers are less likely to pay for a post-factory update than while ordering the car (which I do suspect). If this holds, then the subset of drivers who activated post factory (with miles already on the clock, so that this part of their car usage appears in the "before autosteer" column) will have, on average, a bigger desire for autosteer (and more naturally safe long distance cruising in their driving patterns) than the average of those who got the car with the option factory-activated (and who thus appear only in the "after autosteer" column).

Edit: oh, and here's the really big one: the "before autosteer" number only includes cars that where upgraded. How is this important? All airbag activations that happened in an event that messed up the car beyond repair cannot appear in the "before update" dataset, because nobody spends thousands of dollars on an autopilot update for a car wreck.

[edit 2]: This should actually make the "before" number much better than the "after" number, so i really wonder what's going on here.

Re: NHTSA’s full investigation into Tesla’s Autopilot shows 40% crash rate reduction

#154
post #53

Earlier quoted context omitted.

There is zero chance I'd stay awake behind the wheel of a level 2 or 3 vehicle.

I'm in the same boat as you here. Level 2 and 3 are unsafe for me as an individual. When I drive, actively focusing on the road and driving keeps me awake. When I'm a passenger, the lack of mental concentration plus the gentle rocking motion of a moving car knocks me out within ten minutes. The current Tesla autopilot is obviously working well for many people, but for myself I have to wait until level 4. Anything mor…

It's the reverse for my wife. She starts driving and within minutes gets tired. She'll switch to passenger and be wide awake for hours.

Re: NHTSA’s full investigation into Tesla’s Autopilot shows 40% crash rate reduction

#155

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I think you pointed to the wrong link. That's a study about ethics, not safety.

If you read the abstract you will see that the studies involve driver behavior. "Results Studies 1 and 2. Our first two studies were naturalistic field studies, and examined whether upper-class individuals behave more unethically than lower-class individuals while driving. In study 1, we investigated whether upper-class drivers were more likely to cut off other vehicles at a busy four-way intersection with stop signs…

Did they account for bias in their observers?

Re: NHTSA’s full investigation into Tesla’s Autopilot shows 40% crash rate reduction

#156

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Would require you to link your social media accounts to your car so easily avoided.

Oh, I think the car would be able to learn your social media accounts after a while, just looking for any geotagged posts that tend to match the car's position

How many driving seats does this car have?!

Re: NHTSA’s full investigation into Tesla’s Autopilot shows 40% crash rate reduction

#157

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Except there are "autopilot" miles in the before bucket. They are comparing before and after Autosteer so Autosteer is in the after bucket only. TACC however is in both buckets, aka this is supposed to be a comparison showing the increase in safety when going from level1 to level2 systems but both buckets have tons of human driven miles mixed in.

Level 1 = cruise control. All cars in the entire world are level 1 autonomous these days.

It's not just "cruise control", it's "adaptive cruise control". From the report PDF (emphasis theirs):

the driving mode-specific execution by a driver assistance system of either steering or acceleration/deceleration using information about the driving environment and with the expectation that the human driver perform all remaining aspects of the dynamic driving task

Re: NHTSA’s full investigation into Tesla’s Autopilot shows 40% crash rate reduction

#158
post #54

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Varying insurance rates based on age and gender seem to indicate that, yes, demographics play a role in driving responsibility. A Tesla is not a cheap car. I kind of suspect the average Tesla driver is more responsible than the average driver. It may be the case that the average Tesla driver is very well off, and treat the cars as expensive toys though, so it's tough to say without numbers. If i had to bet right now,…

I suspect the average Tesla driver is more irresponsible than the average driver, simply because they're rich and are used to getting their way. If you study rich drivers I have no doubt that you would find that they cut people off more, overtake in more dangerous situations, use their indicators less, drive over the speed limit more, proceed through amber signals later, run red lights more often, and generally show…

Do the people you are describing with such harsh prejudice have more accidents? That's the real question.

Re: NHTSA’s full investigation into Tesla’s Autopilot shows 40% crash rate reduction

#159

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> wealthy (probably better educated) drivers. You mean drivers like the ones behind the wheel of all the BMWs and Audis that cut me off with no turn signals, speed, make aggressive lane changes, tailgate, and generally act like giant douches because a simple traffic ticket is nothing to their pocketbook while their time == money? Those people are going to be a hell of a lot safer behind the wheel of an autonomous (le…

He said less wealthy, better educated drivers.

Pretty certain he meant it the way I quoted it.
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