Earlier quoted context omitted.
I _know_ there's a disconnect between the share price and the value, I just don't know what direction it's going to go in. This is why straddles are so much fun. :) The efficiency of markets is widely overrated.
It's super annoying when there's a strong and confident initial comment and the clarifying comment is jibber jabber.
Etsy stock has lost 76% of its value in 9 months
151–160 of 276 posts
Re: Etsy stock has lost 76% of its value in 9 months
#152Re: Etsy stock has lost 76% of its value in 9 months
#153Earlier quoted context omitted.
Their lock-in is their network effects. Airbnb has a huge selection of locations in many major cities around the world. Uber has an incredible number of drivers and riders on the system globally at all times of the day. Competitors will have a very hard time replicating that.
airbnb has a real problem: VRBO. VRBO is routinely cheaper than airbnb, has been around longer, and doesn't have the legal issues, and has the support of the baby boomers. Good luck, airbnb.
VRBO is actually starting to copy Airbnb's pricing model because they're losing. It has worse legal issues in many areas because it is outright short term rentals instead of hosted rentals. Additionally, the response rate and speed is much worse than Airbnb which is all that matters to most baby boomer users. My dad gets frustrated as soon as instant booking isn't available like a hotel room
Re: Etsy stock has lost 76% of its value in 9 months
#154Earlier quoted context omitted.
Many multiples? Try two to three, currently. "For instance, there seems to be a consensus that the most lucrative cab market in the world is in Japan, where yearly revenues are estimated to be about $20 billion to $25 billion just in Tokyo, followed by the United Kingdom with revenues of $14 billion, the bulk from London, and the U.S. with $11 billion overall and about $3 billion in New York. Assuming taxi revenues i…
Uber won't capture merely the value of the US cab market, they're going to vastly expand it. People are already using Uber for things that they would never otherwise have tried to hail a cab for due to either cost or inconvenience or annoyance. It has significantly opened up the potential scale of the US taxi market, and will continue to do so. Uber's use is also blatantly going to broaden beyond the classic taxi mar…
In the hedge fund industry we have a saying, pigs dream of flying and get slaughtered
Re: Etsy stock has lost 76% of its value in 9 months
#155speciality ecommerce has always been a moody market and a company like Etsy getting traded at this value is still just sentimental value. The company has had negative margins for a while, along with negative returns on all it's assets.
Operating cash flow is a mere 2% of the current market cap. This defines shambles unless it can really turn it's fortune around in '16-17.
Re: Etsy stock has lost 76% of its value in 9 months
#156Earlier quoted context omitted.
What? AirBnB's valuation is 25B. It could make a trivial dent in the worldwide hotel market and crush that valuation many times over. Uber is 50B. The global taxi market alone is worth many multiples of 50B, and that's not counting all the delivery services, bus/public transit-replacements etc that Uber is pushing for. I'm not saying these companies WILL capture all of their current markets, but it's ridiculous to sa…
Many multiples? Try two to three, currently. "For instance, there seems to be a consensus that the most lucrative cab market in the world is in Japan, where yearly revenues are estimated to be about $20 billion to $25 billion just in Tokyo, followed by the United Kingdom with revenues of $14 billion, the bulk from London, and the U.S. with $11 billion overall and about $3 billion in New York. Assuming taxi revenues i…
Assuming those numbers are all true, we still need to lump in all of the other delivery services and other verticals that Uber/Lyft are attacking.
Then on top of this you've computed $100 billion per year which can easily justify a $50, $100, $150 billion valuation since you'll in theory be getting that $100 billion every single year
Re: Etsy stock has lost 76% of its value in 9 months
#157Earlier quoted context omitted.
Disagree entirely. Twitter? No good way to monetize. Groupon? Failed to monetize effectively after virality faded and without a moat competitors did the same thing. Yelp? A web version of the BBB protection scheme whose profit comes from the shake down protection racket against small businesses, not from users. Zynga had no moat and other companies quickly did the same thing with much leaner overhead, like King and a…
I'll concede that Uber and Airbnb business models are stronger than the others, but they are still massively overvalued based on near future growth prospects. Those two will probably succeed in the long run, but they still won't be good stock picks
Agree. Airbnb's valuation is very close to eBay's. So, that means that it's expected that in the near future AirBnB will generate at least $2-3 billion in net profits per year. Actually, it would have to be more than that, because investors expect even higher valuation on IPO. Peter Thiel stated he thinks AirBnB will be $100+ billion company, which would imply he expects at least $7 billion after tax profits in the near future.
Let's compare eBay to AirBnB.
eBay incorporated in 1996, AirBnB in 2008. After 6 years of existing, eBay's revenue in 2002 was $1.21 billion[profitable]. AirBnB's revenue after 6 years is $400+ million[not profitable].
Now, eBay got that revenue+profits by 2002 when:
> (1) there were only few hundred million people online - 7x less than now. Slow internet connection, ugly websites, no mobile.
> (2) people were somewhat insecure about transacting online and paying was pain in the ass.
> (3) they were only popular in the US, UK, AU and had recently entered Germany.
Compare that to AirBnB, which after the same number of years operates in environment where:
> (1) there are over 3 billion people online.
> (2) payments online are very common(booking hotels pioneered by other companies) and easy.
> (3) says it operates in 190 countries, 20+ languages.
Even after all these advantages, they only got 1/3 of eBay's revenue in 2002 with the same current valuation.
Re: Etsy stock has lost 76% of its value in 9 months
#158Earlier quoted context omitted.
GoPro's stock still has positive EPS and a healthy EPS
Holiday sales were disappointing and the company is planning job cuts.
Well, we can't blame the costumers - what they have is good enough - how do you motivate them to keep buying the new version? It sounds kinda like the conundrum Adobe had :) Maybe there's a market for the GoPro CC edition?
Re: Etsy stock has lost 76% of its value in 9 months
#159Angie's List: from $28 in Jul 2013 to $9[0] Box: from $24 in Jan 2015 to $10[1] GoPro: from $87 in Oct 2014 to $11[2] Groupon: from $26 in Nov 2011 to $2.60[3] GrubHub: from $46 in Apr 2015 to $21[4] Twitter: from $70 in Jan 2014 to $18[5] Yelp: from $97 in Mar 2014 to $21[6] Zillow: from $121 in Feb 2015 to $22[7] Zynga: from $15 in Mar 2012 to $2[8] 0: http://www.google.com/finance?q=ANGI 1: http://www.google.com/f…
Facebook: $38.23 to $94.97 (May '12 - present) [0] Wayfair: $32.18 to $37.81 (Oct '14 - present)[1] TripAdvisor: $27.91 to $70.63 (Dec '11 - Present)[2] Hubspot: $29.05 to $50.04 (Oct '14 - Present) [3] Tesla: $10.40 to $204.99 (Jul '10 - Present ) [4] ZenDesk: $15.25 to $23.10 (May '14 - Present) [5] LinkedIn: $90.09 to $196.10 (May '11 - Present) [6] 0: https://www.google.com/finance?q=facebook&ei=OGyZVsiyEYqNmAG..…
Short list?
Re: Etsy stock has lost 76% of its value in 9 months
#160Earlier quoted context omitted.
Soon we will see uber, airbnb and dropbox added to this list. The problem is the new VC-funded startup model is a sham to rip off the public. Basically build a bunch of hype around fad-based, unprofitable companies with unsustainable business models and capture massive valuation of ~50x sales before going IPO and then insiders dump all the overvalued shares on the naive dumb money and only stick around long enough to…
Disagree entirely. Twitter? No good way to monetize. Groupon? Failed to monetize effectively after virality faded and without a moat competitors did the same thing. Yelp? A web version of the BBB protection scheme whose profit comes from the shake down protection racket against small businesses, not from users. Zynga had no moat and other companies quickly did the same thing with much leaner overhead, like King and a…
On the flip side, every time someone takes an Uber or rents a room on AirBnb, they pay the company.
I think the difference is that Uber and AirBnB's valuation assumes continue, explosive growth over the next decade.
Uber could slow and still grow at a decent rate and the valuation would plummet.