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The turbulent AI era is here

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Re: The turbulent AI era is here

#141

Post by sltkr »

mcmcmc wrote: post #118
sltkr wrote: post #102

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> When the data fed into an AI model is based on real data you can get predictability. When the AI inputs start coming from the AI outputs the wobble is introduced which results inevitably into delirium. This is asserted without evidence. There is absolutely no proof that AI requires humans in the loop to function or improve itself. Compare it with Deepmind's go-playing program, AlphaGo, which mainly involved trainin…

You have no evidence that self improvement can work at generalized tasks. Go is a simple game with a clear win condition, but deep strategy and near infinite permutations of how a game plays out. Winning a game of Go is a task well suited to machine learning. One might say you are engaging in wishful thinking by believing it’ll just continue to work across all domains. The world is much bigger than a Go board.

> You have no evidence that self improvement can work at generalized tasks.

I never made that claim. I just said it's way too early to rule it out: there is no logical reason why AIs will (always) need to have a human in the loop, and we don't have enough experience with LLMs to know what their true limits are.

I referenced AlphaGo not because the game of Go is exactly like every other task AI might perform in the future, but because the evolution from AlphaGo (which was trained on human games) to AlphaGo Zero (which was not) shows that at least in certain domains, it's not only possible to take the human out of the loop, it can actually make AI perform better.

I'm not claiming this will definitely be possible in every other domain, but people who state it definitely won't be, are jumping the gun.

Re: The turbulent AI era is here

#142

Post by WillAdams »

chasd00 wrote: post #61
egonschiele wrote: post #51

Does anyone else feel incredibly nostalgic for the time when Bill Gates and Warren Buffet were the richest people on earth? I remember feeling pretty good about the fact that they were trying to do so much good, and about the giving pledge. Things feel so different now.

Few people were more vicious than Gates when he was running Microsoft. Maybe Larry Ellison but Gates was smarter and more cunning. I don't feel nostalgic about those days and Gates is just trying to buy his way into heaven and a positive view on his wikipedia page.

Classic example of Gate's avariciousness at the expense of others is:

https://www.folklore.org/MacBasic.html

Re: The turbulent AI era is here

#143

Post by eariogn »

heaney-555 wrote: post #99
lukeschlather wrote: post #15

If AI is really that powerful, shouldn't someone like Gates be able to end hunger and homelessness with a one-time capital expenditure? Somehow "give people jobs" is the primary problem he wants to solve, not ending poverty. It borderline seems like he's most worried about maintaining the working poor as a valuable societal institution.

>end hunger and homelessness with a one-time capital expenditure? A significant percentage of the world's hungry live under warlords, militias and dictatorships that would simply kill anyone trying to peacefully give their subjects food. Unless you're proposing AI military interventionism, you cannot fix this. Homelessness on the other hand is mostly a mental health and drug addiction problem. Fixing it, in many case…

[dead]

Re: The turbulent AI era is here

#144

Post by rglover »

egonschiele wrote: post #51

Does anyone else feel incredibly nostalgic for the time when Bill Gates and Warren Buffet were the richest people on earth? I remember feeling pretty good about the fact that they were trying to do so much good, and about the giving pledge. Things feel so different now.

In a sense [1].

[1] https://youtu.be/HEMbp6Epfz8?is=D6YFfNuYQo3o0VTi

Re: The turbulent AI era is here

#146

Post by tintor »

sltkr wrote: post #102
mcnichol wrote: post #83

I feel this is merely stating the obvious. It goes back to the industrial revolution and every revolution before and after. There was a point where they thought a majority of people would be working as switchboard operators and then telephone switching came along. Horses to cars, etc. Jobs transition, new space is created, people are caught in tbe crossfire of supply and demand curves. Incan agree the bullwhip of thi…

> When the data fed into an AI model is based on real data you can get predictability. When the AI inputs start coming from the AI outputs the wobble is introduced which results inevitably into delirium. This is asserted without evidence. There is absolutely no proof that AI requires humans in the loop to function or improve itself. Compare it with Deepmind's go-playing program, AlphaGo, which mainly involved trainin…

AlphaZero works in simple and fully observable environments like board games.

RLVR for LLMs works for coding and math domains which can be verified by code.

AlphaZero, RLVR and other RL methods don't work for learning dextrous manipulation for robotics, for example. Learning in robotics depends on human data.

Re: The turbulent AI era is here

#147

Post by rglover »

newspaper1 wrote: post #58
egonschiele wrote: post #51

Does anyone else feel incredibly nostalgic for the time when Bill Gates and Warren Buffet were the richest people on earth? I remember feeling pretty good about the fact that they were trying to do so much good, and about the giving pledge. Things feel so different now.

No because Bill Gates was hanging out with Jeffery Epstein that entire time. I also feel like people forgot his insanely evil business practices from the 80s and 90s? Bill Gates has always been one of the worst people out there. Every bit as bad as Musk. It's a big club, we're just not in it.

"He's dead, so..." [1]

[1] https://youtu.be/LNAwUxZ5nfw?is=OK_2b_dUdH8t1F2C

Re: The turbulent AI era is here

#148

Post by regular_trash »

recursive wrote: post #134
azan_ wrote: post #117

Earlier quoted context omitted.

If AI would become better at cognitive work than humans, I don't really see what new jobs would be created.

Construction for data centers?

Well clearly. But the above comment was about jobs that didn't exist before AI that AI will lead to the creation of.

Tiktok arguably led to more datacenters being created, AI is not unique in this regard and it's silly to imply that datacenter jobs meaningfully contribute to employment on the same scale as the loss of jobs AI could potentially lead to.

Re: The turbulent AI era is here

#149

Post by harimau777 »

ryeights wrote: post #36
matherial wrote: post #16

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Show me a person who truly revised their priors to put forward a novel solution to AI that isn't just "do the thing that I like and that benefits me in some way". The discourse around all this is a mix of quasi-religious beliefs (pro and con) and blatant opportunism. For Dario and Sam, the solution is "give us a monopoly on this tech". For Gates, it's "create an supranational organization with unprecedented taxation…

https://www.pacingthefrontier.com/ https://ai-2040.com Can you describe a method of slowing frontier AI development that you yourself would not classify as monopoly-seeking by US AI companies or power-seeking by governments and technocrats? Limiting the development of powerful AI requires restricting free enterprise in some way, backed by the threat of force; hence, there will always be a cynical framing available.

Many people would be fine with restricting free enterprise. It hasn't exactly given us great quality of life, at least in America.

Re: The turbulent AI era is here

#150

Post by hahajk »

numeri wrote: post #110
mcnichol wrote: post #83

I feel this is merely stating the obvious. It goes back to the industrial revolution and every revolution before and after. There was a point where they thought a majority of people would be working as switchboard operators and then telephone switching came along. Horses to cars, etc. Jobs transition, new space is created, people are caught in tbe crossfire of supply and demand curves. Incan agree the bullwhip of thi…

> new space is created That seems to be the crux here. You think it will be, I (and a lot of other people) aren't sure it will. If new space for jobs are created, I am certain we'll be fine long term. What do you think will happen if it isn't (I know you have strong evidence for and reasons to believe it will be, but just indulge the hypothetical)?

> What do you think will happen if it isn't

Since such a thing has never happened, I doubt anyone, even scholars of history and anthropology, know.

Capitalism probably won't work in a world of ultra abundance though.

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