Hacker News Board Hacker News, browsed like a classic message board
Live data from Hacker News

The disappearance of Japan's animators

economist.com

Post reply on HN
Print view View original

141–150 of 167 posts

Re: The disappearance of Japan's animators

#141

Post by [deleted] »

TheOtherHobbes wrote: post #60
jdw64 wrote: post #22

Earlier quoted context omitted.

You're not wrong. But there is a common perception that we value things made by humans more. The problem is that grunt work actually serves as a pipeline for industrial training. Even with AI, the distribution of value doesn't get resolved automatically. Of course, I think it would be great if grunt work disappeared, but I believe skilled workers ultimately need grunt work. It's like saying that since AI automates ev…

We do not value things made by humans. Hand-made anything tends to be a Veblen good, which means it's there to signal status, which means it's expensive. But expensive doesn't work in mass-media. So a hand-drawn anime isn't going to be more profitable than an AI-animated one. As for education - possibly, but this is the end of a process that started with digitalisation. I'm a huge fan of hand-drawn pre-Illustrator gr…

[deleted]

Re: The disappearance of Japan's animators

#142

Post by bsenftner »

DanielHB wrote: post #138
frmersdog wrote: post #90

Hey, hi, yoohoo whistles . Everyone gather 'round and reread this part: Lacking proper training and a viable salary, many young animators don’t feel they can keep going. The Japan Research Institute estimated that a quarter of them quit the industry within four years, and two-thirds in eight years. This retention problem has often been viewed as a form of natural selection. “I think this way of thinking is misguided,…

I worked with CNC machining shops in Sweden and the people working there made the exact same points. CNC is not exactly an art form, but programming the machines definitely has some craftsmanship aspects to it. Even considering that after a part is programmed it can then be mass produced. - Very hard to get young people in because entry level pays very poorly AND requires non-trivial amounts of training. - Razor-thin…

Capitalism's core aspect is exploitation, of course this is the result. Capitalism, that "nothing can beat this economic system" winner is a winner because it is immoral, folks. It is based on exploiting those with no alternative. Of course this decimation of competing participants is part of its core operation. Capitalism is a controlled conflict. It is slow violence.

Re: The disappearance of Japan's animators

#143

Post by bell-cot »

ItsYan wrote: post #139
DanielHB wrote: post #138

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I worked with CNC machining shops in Sweden and the people working there made the exact same points. CNC is not exactly an art form, but programming the machines definitely has some craftsmanship aspects to it. Even considering that after a part is programmed it can then be mass produced. - Very hard to get young people in because entry level pays very poorly AND requires non-trivial amounts of training. - Razor-thin…

>It is not so much that, but rather that if you hire average people with average skills or people that require training you go out of business because the shop next door won't. If only workers would form some kind of a community, which would take monthly contributions and that would then be used to upskill. It would unite most, if not all people in the same industry.

> - Razor-thin margins so shops can't afford to pay well

> - Having a shop in China machine the parts for you can be quite acceptable, especially in higher volumes

Yes, in some circumstances, your idea can work. To a degree. But there are plenty of trades and whole industries where domestic employment has fallen by 100X or more, because global capitalism found plenty of cheap workers in distant countries. Where 10X (or more) lower pay didn't seem so bad, compared to their local alternatives.

Re: The disappearance of Japan's animators

#144

Post by roenxi »

DanielHB wrote: post #138
frmersdog wrote: post #90

Hey, hi, yoohoo whistles . Everyone gather 'round and reread this part: Lacking proper training and a viable salary, many young animators don’t feel they can keep going. The Japan Research Institute estimated that a quarter of them quit the industry within four years, and two-thirds in eight years. This retention problem has often been viewed as a form of natural selection. “I think this way of thinking is misguided,…

I worked with CNC machining shops in Sweden and the people working there made the exact same points. CNC is not exactly an art form, but programming the machines definitely has some craftsmanship aspects to it. Even considering that after a part is programmed it can then be mass produced. - Very hard to get young people in because entry level pays very poorly AND requires non-trivial amounts of training. - Razor-thin…

> - Razor-thin margins so shops can't afford to pay well

If the margins are so razor thin that people the shops can't afford to pay well, what is the point of having the shops? Have the people go do something that pays well. There seem to be alternatives if people don't feel pressured to enter the industry in the first place.

If Sweden has picked a policy mix where it can't profitably run an industry then it'll either have to give up some material comfort to do it uneconomically or give up the industry. You don't make it sound like there is a hard conversation being had around intentionally lowering living standards to support machining shops. So let them go.

> Eventually the world is going to run out of countries having demographic booms, then society will have a massive lack of people to maintain existing infrastructure and corporations.

Under such circumstances, margins will have to rise to the point where machine shops will be able to hire some snot-nosed apprentices. Economics is pretty brutal about that sort of thing.

Re: The disappearance of Japan's animators

#145

Post by bsenftner »

dartharva wrote: post #122
bilbo0s wrote: post #94

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> As ever, if you want to know where much of the expertise has gone, look to China (and South Korea) Good news! You don't need to worry about that anymore! I can guarantee you, as the article implies, money from big tech is being funneled to people perfecting models for in-betweeners as we speak. /s I think we may be entering an era where we really have to start thinking about how to organize work at a fundamental le…

Unironically, ever since generative art tech arrived I have been anticipating full automation of in-betweening. I am rather (pleasantly) surprised it hasn't already been done.

Full automation of in-betweening was achieved during the 70's, I was there, it was a big deal, and then nobody used it. Interpolation animation, splines and vector morphing are all versions of that tech. The automation is in-betweens is how modern animation software works, but a lot people want 3D characters, 3D views, and the freedom to change perspectives after beginning. So "in-betweening" is now used more for the creation of certain motions that either cannot be motion captured, or are some signature motion for that character and the motion is designed - and that will be in-betweens for the motions between key poses, but those are all 3D motions, so different views can be chosen later. Even if the final production will appear to be 2D hand drawn, it is 3D production beneath, and our original in-betweening method at the individual joint level within an articulated body.

Re: The disappearance of Japan's animators

#146

Post by DanielHB »

roenxi wrote: post #144
DanielHB wrote: post #138

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I worked with CNC machining shops in Sweden and the people working there made the exact same points. CNC is not exactly an art form, but programming the machines definitely has some craftsmanship aspects to it. Even considering that after a part is programmed it can then be mass produced. - Very hard to get young people in because entry level pays very poorly AND requires non-trivial amounts of training. - Razor-thin…

> - Razor-thin margins so shops can't afford to pay well If the margins are so razor thin that people the shops can't afford to pay well, what is the point of having the shops? Have the people go do something that pays well. There seem to be alternatives if people don't feel pressured to enter the industry in the first place. If Sweden has picked a policy mix where it can't profitably run an industry then it'll eithe…

It is not a problem of Sweden specifically, I imagine this kind of problem will hit China hard in 20-40 years too. Companies in China behave just the same way as in Sweden, they have huge youth unemployment problems there too.

Re: The disappearance of Japan's animators

#147

Post by coldtea »

jimmydorry wrote: post #140
coldtea wrote: post #98

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> we really have to start thinking about how to organize work at a fundamental level Who is this "we"? As if society at large gets a say? Do people owning land and houses ask the homeless of how to organize home ownership?

All it takes is a populist with a good message to make a political group. All functional Western nations have voting mechanisms that allow for radical government change, if there is enough public support for it. It might take a decade to fully manifest, but if we're entering an age of such extreme, then I would expect people to eventually vote for such change.

>All functional Western nations have voting mechanisms that allow for radical government change

Voters never get what they vote for.

Re: The disappearance of Japan's animators

#148

Post by strken »

DanielHB wrote: post #138
frmersdog wrote: post #90

Hey, hi, yoohoo whistles . Everyone gather 'round and reread this part: Lacking proper training and a viable salary, many young animators don’t feel they can keep going. The Japan Research Institute estimated that a quarter of them quit the industry within four years, and two-thirds in eight years. This retention problem has often been viewed as a form of natural selection. “I think this way of thinking is misguided,…

I worked with CNC machining shops in Sweden and the people working there made the exact same points. CNC is not exactly an art form, but programming the machines definitely has some craftsmanship aspects to it. Even considering that after a part is programmed it can then be mass produced. - Very hard to get young people in because entry level pays very poorly AND requires non-trivial amounts of training. - Razor-thin…

There are a bunch of upsides here. Industrialisation increases standard of living compared to an agrarian economy. A service economy, where services mean things like industrial engineering and product marketing, increases standard of living even further.

I get that tool and die is going to be in demand again one day, but that's not an overall downside. For that to happen, every country which could be outsourced to will be too wealthy and have a service economy, and they'll have to use their wealth to hire the last remaining tool and die makers as instructors. Compared to the upsides of nobody being a subsistence farmer or sweatshop worker anymore, and of most people living in advanced economies, that downside is small.

Re: The disappearance of Japan's animators

#149

Post by michael1999 »

ItsYan wrote: post #139
DanielHB wrote: post #138

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I worked with CNC machining shops in Sweden and the people working there made the exact same points. CNC is not exactly an art form, but programming the machines definitely has some craftsmanship aspects to it. Even considering that after a part is programmed it can then be mass produced. - Very hard to get young people in because entry level pays very poorly AND requires non-trivial amounts of training. - Razor-thin…

>It is not so much that, but rather that if you hire average people with average skills or people that require training you go out of business because the shop next door won't. If only workers would form some kind of a community, which would take monthly contributions and that would then be used to upskill. It would unite most, if not all people in the same industry.

Are there countries where trade unions are still active in training? Most places I see they are entirely focused on wage bargaining, and are happy to gut training for the young if they can maintain the generous pensions of the old.

Re: The disappearance of Japan's animators

#150

Post by motbus3 »

frmersdog wrote: post #90

Hey, hi, yoohoo whistles . Everyone gather 'round and reread this part: Lacking proper training and a viable salary, many young animators don’t feel they can keep going. The Japan Research Institute estimated that a quarter of them quit the industry within four years, and two-thirds in eight years. This retention problem has often been viewed as a form of natural selection. “I think this way of thinking is misguided,…

Investing funds don't want to know about 10 years in the future. Next quarter is fine and damn with the rest
Post reply on HN