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AI subscriptions are a ticking time bomb for enterprise

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141–150 of 426 posts

Re: AI subscriptions are a ticking time bomb for enterprise

#141

Post by djeastm »

HarHarVeryFunny wrote: post #71
Sharlin wrote: post #18

I think I'm going to puke if I see one more "It's not X. It's Y." phrase or the word "load-bearing" used metaphorically.

I guess the good news may be that if/when there is a major pricing correction, that many of the people using free or $20/mo subscriptions to generate social media commentary may balk at the real cost and go back to writing it themselves. One can at least hope.

I think there will always be a free tier that they'll be willing to use. Even if it sounds hackneyed, those folks will still use it because many people are not discerning readers anyway.

Re: AI subscriptions are a ticking time bomb for enterprise

#142

Post by rogerrogerr »

slashdave wrote: post #140
christopherwxyz wrote: post #136

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I would readjust your convictions. We are only 2-4 years away from consumer grade immutable-weight ASICs.

We are discussing how rapid development has been, and now you want to freeze your model in silicon?

Genuine question from a place of ignorance: what in the silicon pipeline makes it take 2-4years to produce chips with a new model on them? Curious what the process bottleneck is.

Re: AI subscriptions are a ticking time bomb for enterprise

#143

Post by stingraycharles »

evo_9 wrote: post #79

Every AI subscription is a ticking time bomb for the frontier provider; within a few years we will be running local models as good as today’s frontier models with almost no cost burden. The floor will fall out of the enterprise market for all the frontier companies.

The economics of local AI just doesn’t make sense. A model like Opus is - supposedly - something like 5T parameters, which is likely something like 3TB of GPU memory.

Local models never reach the % utilization that cloud providers have (80%+), and they’re always going to be much better than local models for this reason.

Re: AI subscriptions are a ticking time bomb for enterprise

#144

Post by manmal »

__s wrote: post #137
alsetmusic wrote: post #115

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Local modals are 6 months to 18 months behind frontier. Even if the performance of a cloud model is faster, it's clear that local is catching up.

You still need the hardware I've got a 128GB strix halo staying warm at home, it has nothing on top models with big budget. It's good supplement to low end plans for offloading grunt work / initial triage

Have you looked into DwarfStar 4?

Re: AI subscriptions are a ticking time bomb for enterprise

#145

Post by otterley »

evo_9 wrote: post #79

Every AI subscription is a ticking time bomb for the frontier provider; within a few years we will be running local models as good as today’s frontier models with almost no cost burden. The floor will fall out of the enterprise market for all the frontier companies.

People who are this certain of their predictions should be forced to put real money on them on Kalshi or Polymarket instead of drive-by blowharding on HN.

Re: AI subscriptions are a ticking time bomb for enterprise

#146

Post by derektank »

nijave wrote: post #109
andyfilms1 wrote: post #75

Replacing your workers with AI: --You lose control over their "salary" --You lose control over their "schedule" --Your company becomes reliant on another party that does not share your interests or values, and can stop working for you on a whim for any reason But AI is definitely good and trade unions are definitely bad, apparently...

>Your company becomes reliant on another party that does not share your interests or values, and can stop working for you on a whim for any reason That's the same as human workers. In both cases there are contracts/money to help align interests

Exactly, the principal-agent problem applies to all agents, be they human, corporate, or robotic

Re: AI subscriptions are a ticking time bomb for enterprise

#149

Post by chermi »

vb-8448 wrote: post #112
evo_9 wrote: post #79

Every AI subscription is a ticking time bomb for the frontier provider; within a few years we will be running local models as good as today’s frontier models with almost no cost burden. The floor will fall out of the enterprise market for all the frontier companies.

> within a few years we will be running local models as good as today’s frontier Unless there isn't some important breakthrough in hw production or in models architecture, it's quite the opposite: bigger, more expensive and more energy-intensive hw is needed today compared to 1 or 2 years ago.

Per frontier token. You're not calculating the cost of a fixed quality asset here. Old hw running non-frontier models will be very valuable. In fact, we have two direct examples: older server gpus actually appreciating and the very obvious fact that not everyone always use MAX FULL EFFORT BEST MODEL no matter what.

Re: AI subscriptions are a ticking time bomb for enterprise

#150

Post by manmal »

utopiah wrote: post #21
returnInfinity wrote: post #3

Brad Gerstner confirmed that tokens aren't being sold at a loss. Whatever the formula, API + Subscription split, the companies are making a profit on net token sale. They maybe running at loss after all the salaries and stock comp, but tokens are in profit now.

It's like witnessing a rocket using the most powerful engine on Earth then once it escaped orbit turn off the engine and said "It is flying without power!". Yes, sure, right now it is ... but that's NOT how it got here. There are trillions invested to recoup and at most billions in sales. It doesn't add up to tokens making a profit any time soon.

Certainly not trillions. The models costing tens of billions to train are a very new development.
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