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USDA Projects Smallest US Wheat Harvest Since 1972 Due to Plains Drought
141–150 of 187 posts
Re: USDA Projects Smallest US Wheat Harvest Since 1972 Due to Plains Drought
#142Earlier quoted context omitted.
Is this relevant in 2026? Are people still claiming land via the 1877 Desert Land Act?
Do you think laws go away just because they're old? The Colorado River compact came into effect in 1922 and I'm almost surprised literal fist fights haven't erupted over it during the modern negotiations.
I think laws become less relevant over time for many reasons. There are entire books written about silly and obsolete laws, e.g.:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Trenton_Pickle_Ordinance_a...
The age of a law or regulation is likely a strong indicator for its relevance in modern times, especially if it’s regarding something quite niche.
Re: USDA Projects Smallest US Wheat Harvest Since 1972 Due to Plains Drought
#143Title claims "due to plains drought" but the article text largely attributes this to increased planting of soy for its lower fertilizer requirements (related to Strait of Hormuz).
Wheat isn’t grown in the same places that beans grow. If you can, you’re rotating beans and corn every year. (“Roundup ready” of course) Wheat is on the marginal drier land. Not that they couldn’t plant wheat there but beans are way more profitable and so they don’t. The plains is by definition more arid, marginal land a step up from pasture/grazing. A lot of traditional wheat/sunflower/barley/oats has gone over to b…
Wheat is absolutely grown on the same place they grow beans. The field directly across from my house did that last year. I don't survey all the farms in my area, but It does seem like there is much less wheat this year on fields where I know it was grown in previous seasons.
Re: USDA Projects Smallest US Wheat Harvest Since 1972 Due to Plains Drought
#144Earlier quoted context omitted.
When China buys from someone else (Brazil - nobody else has significant soy bean surplus) that means whoever was buying from that someone else now needs to go to the US. The US also uses a lot of soy beans internally. Prices are down, but farmers are still selling soybeans and with careful management are making money.
I don't think international trade is so stable that any shift would imply equal and opposite shifts in trade. For example it looks like Brazil's production is up 5% while China's overall usage may be down 6%.
Do you think China's new demand on Brazil could be handled by Brazil with previously idle capacity?
Re: USDA Projects Smallest US Wheat Harvest Since 1972 Due to Plains Drought
#145America was great in 1972 so this is just more evidence America has become great again
. Congratulations:)
Re: USDA Projects Smallest US Wheat Harvest Since 1972 Due to Plains Drought
#146Earlier quoted context omitted.
I don't think international trade is so stable that any shift would imply equal and opposite shifts in trade. For example it looks like Brazil's production is up 5% while China's overall usage may be down 6%.
Do you think China's new demand on Brazil could be handled by Brazil with previously idle capacity?
I think these changes were mostly from earlier factors but will pressure the prices of soybeans in the opposite direction from the wheat shortage which isn't very good (for soy bean farmers) given the risk that higher fertilizer costs isn't adequately reflected at the next harvest time.
Re: USDA Projects Smallest US Wheat Harvest Since 1972 Due to Plains Drought
#147Title claims "due to plains drought" but the article text largely attributes this to increased planting of soy for its lower fertilizer requirements (related to Strait of Hormuz).
Wheat isn’t grown in the same places that beans grow. If you can, you’re rotating beans and corn every year. (“Roundup ready” of course) Wheat is on the marginal drier land. Not that they couldn’t plant wheat there but beans are way more profitable and so they don’t. The plains is by definition more arid, marginal land a step up from pasture/grazing. A lot of traditional wheat/sunflower/barley/oats has gone over to b…
> Wheat isn’t grown in the same places that beans grow.
...
> A lot of traditional wheat/sunflower/barley/oats has gone over to beans and corn bc roundup and GMO.
So wheat absolutely can be grown on the same places that beans grow, despite your leading claim. And I grew up in the Midwest plains; wheat IS a crop that can be grown there. Marginal? The breadbasket of the US? Huh. News to those who live there.
US farmers are planting less wheat, which made the crop harvest marginal, and along came a drought.
Re: USDA Projects Smallest US Wheat Harvest Since 1972 Due to Plains Drought
#148Earlier quoted context omitted.
Fertilizer is pretty fungible and is a global market, so even if the US is primarily supplied by Canada, and overall global demand remained constant, prices would go up since there will be supply reduction due to the Hormuz strait being closed.
Having the two major inputs turned off turns fungible to non-fungible
No, but it makes it pricier. In case you don't know:
"Fungible describes goods, assets, or commodities that are mutually interchangeable, meaning one unit is equivalent to another of the same type and value.
Re: USDA Projects Smallest US Wheat Harvest Since 1972 Due to Plains Drought
#149Earlier quoted context omitted.
You are wrong and the drought attribution is correct: Winter wheat is the dominant variety in the U.S. and is (and is projected to be further) down due to drought. "a severe drought in the U.S. Plains has curbed production of hard red winter wheat, the largest variety grown in the U.S... The USDA projected U.S. wheat production in the 2026/27 season at 1.561 billion bushels, down from 1.985 billion in 2025/26, as a s…
> Winter wheat is the dominant variety in the U.S. and is (and is projected to be further) down due to drought. Both drought and the fertilizer shortage (which, as the article notes, was too late to effect planting decisions but DID impact the costs, and thereby decisions on the applied quantities, of nutrients for the winter wheat crop this year) are impacting winter wheat yields.
Yes, the article points that out, too.
Re: USDA Projects Smallest US Wheat Harvest Since 1972 Due to Plains Drought
#150Earlier quoted context omitted.
> growers expanded plantings of soybeans A year ago China stopped buying soybeans from the US is seems ("China Bought $12.6 Billion in U.S. Soybeans Last Year. Now, It’s $0." - https://www.nytimes.com/2025/09/25/business/china-soybean-sa... ), was that resumed, or who are all these new soybeans going to? Is it all for national use instead of export?
When China buys from someone else (Brazil - nobody else has significant soy bean surplus) that means whoever was buying from that someone else now needs to go to the US. The US also uses a lot of soy beans internally. Prices are down, but farmers are still selling soybeans and with careful management are making money.
Yes, with one change.
If you can sell to 3 markets, you can negotiate. If one stops buying from you, now you only have 2 markets. And they each know that you can't sell to the other, regardless of demand.
The less favourable your selling position, typically the less you get...