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Russian Assets Reportedly Seized at Baikonur Cosmodrome by Kazakh Authorities

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Re: Russian Assets Reportedly Seized at Baikonur Cosmodrome by Kazakh Authorities

#141

Post by qikInNdOutReply »

cjrp wrote: post #120
mrguyorama wrote: post #105

Earlier quoted context omitted.

In fact that went very poorly. They cut off gas to Europe in an attempt to freeze them and make them come to the bargaining table, but Europe responded very strongly and largely still supports Ukraine. The winter was even very mild. In cutting off the crutch, Russia forced Europe to go cold turkey instead of delaying it for a decade like they wanted to. Now Russia has to settle for selling the gas to other places at…

True, but presumably because of the fear of losing energy supply, Europe chose _not_ to react to earlier provocations, including the invasion of the Crimea.

Yes, the whole salami slice expansion method seems to be designed, to use other diplomats as an abblative layer for empire expansion. Basically using your oponents wish for peace to slowly expand creeping.

And there is a whole diplomat generation standing by to be useful idiots again if not an example is placed like a statue every 3 generations.

Re: Russian Assets Reportedly Seized at Baikonur Cosmodrome by Kazakh Authorities

#142

Post by medo-bear »

sidlls wrote: post #44
jnsaff2 wrote: post #35

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I'm not saying you are wrong but why stop here? Why are the ruling guys stupid? Why do stupid guys get to rule? I also am not sure stupidity is binary or all encompassing. I think they must be doing something right to be rulers to a country. Why do russian citizen take it? Maybe that's where stupid is the final answer, but maybe not. As for international relations, I am more and more coming to the conclusion that eve…

Russia has a nearly unbroken 150-200 year history of tyrannical government (sometimes in just the classical sense of power vested in a single individual, but often in the more modern sense where oppression is added to that). Sometimes there have been rebellions, but always the end result is the same in Russia: power resides in a single individual. Most other countries, east, west, and other, put up more resistance to…

> It's not projecting to postulate that maybe, just maybe, Russians (in aggregate, individual exceptions likely exist) are just okay with that.

just like germans were ok with nazis; italians, spanish, portuguese, with fascists; americans, brits, dutch, french, with slave owners

i mean honnestly, is russia worst than the nato country turkey? not to mention the faithful western ally saudi arabia? is donbas really that different from kosovo? who are we kidding with this virtue hypocricy

i fear that by the time people in large become sober about this hypocricy it will be too late and world will only become more polarized

Re: Russian Assets Reportedly Seized at Baikonur Cosmodrome by Kazakh Authorities

#143

Post by jnsaff2 »

medo-bear wrote: post #142
sidlls wrote: post #44

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Russia has a nearly unbroken 150-200 year history of tyrannical government (sometimes in just the classical sense of power vested in a single individual, but often in the more modern sense where oppression is added to that). Sometimes there have been rebellions, but always the end result is the same in Russia: power resides in a single individual. Most other countries, east, west, and other, put up more resistance to…

> It's not projecting to postulate that maybe, just maybe, Russians (in aggregate, individual exceptions likely exist) are just okay with that. just like germans were ok with nazis; italians, spanish, portuguese, with fascists; americans, brits, dutch, french, with slave owners i mean honnestly, is russia worst than the nato country turkey? not to mention the faithful western ally saudi arabia? is donbas really that…

https://snyder.substack.com/p/playing-the-victim

Re: Russian Assets Reportedly Seized at Baikonur Cosmodrome by Kazakh Authorities

#144

Post by medo-bear »

jnsaff2 wrote: post #143
medo-bear wrote: post #142

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> It's not projecting to postulate that maybe, just maybe, Russians (in aggregate, individual exceptions likely exist) are just okay with that. just like germans were ok with nazis; italians, spanish, portuguese, with fascists; americans, brits, dutch, french, with slave owners i mean honnestly, is russia worst than the nato country turkey? not to mention the faithful western ally saudi arabia? is donbas really that…

https://snyder.substack.com/p/playing-the-victim

how fitting as a response to what i just wrote to post a link to an anglo saxon lecturing slavs about their history and what "rusophobia" really means

but maybe Snyder is right. maybe all these rusophobic, racist statements are made by russian state agents maskarading as hn readers to show russians that their imperial war against ukraine is justified

and then again. shame on russia. US or UK never played the victim when pursuing their imperial ambissions

Re: Russian Assets Reportedly Seized at Baikonur Cosmodrome by Kazakh Authorities

#145

Post by spiralx »

smcl wrote: post #28
The_Colonel wrote: post #24

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Russia isn't currently in a position to invade another country. In the medium-long term, *stans might want to balance the relations between Russia and China (and a bit with the West) which might make further Russian invasions unlikely.

Yeah to me (admittedly a complete outsider) they seem to just barely have the capability to remain in the fight in Ukraine, it's almost unthinkable that they'd try to open another front. I've also been wondering recently if Georgia might see this war as an opportune moment to retake South Ossetia and Abkhazia, or if Moldova might attempt to reestablish control of Transnistria. With Russia underresourced and distracte…

See them refusing military assistance to Armenia - a defensive treaty ally - which has been invaded by Azerbaijan in the last year.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7NOMj7n6QAM

Re: Russian Assets Reportedly Seized at Baikonur Cosmodrome by Kazakh Authorities

#146

Post by jnsaff2 »

medo-bear wrote: post #144
jnsaff2 wrote: post #143

Earlier quoted context omitted.

https://snyder.substack.com/p/playing-the-victim

how fitting as a response to what i just wrote to post a link to an anglo saxon lecturing slavs about their history and what "rusophobia" really means but maybe Snyder is right. maybe all these rusophobic, racist statements are made by russian state agents maskarading as hn readers to show russians that their imperial war against ukraine is justified and then again. shame on russia. US or UK never played the victim w…

oh poor russia, again being attacked by everyone .. oh wait

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/FdhsPQEX0AALM9H?format=jpg&name=...

Re: Russian Assets Reportedly Seized at Baikonur Cosmodrome by Kazakh Authorities

#147

Post by medo-bear »

jnsaff2 wrote: post #146
medo-bear wrote: post #144

Earlier quoted context omitted.

how fitting as a response to what i just wrote to post a link to an anglo saxon lecturing slavs about their history and what "rusophobia" really means but maybe Snyder is right. maybe all these rusophobic, racist statements are made by russian state agents maskarading as hn readers to show russians that their imperial war against ukraine is justified and then again. shame on russia. US or UK never played the victim w…

oh poor russia, again being attacked by everyone .. oh wait https://pbs.twimg.com/media/FdhsPQEX0AALM9H?format=jpg&name=...

lol

Re: Russian Assets Reportedly Seized at Baikonur Cosmodrome by Kazakh Authorities

#148

Post by tablespoon »

chii wrote: post #139
tablespoon wrote: post #96

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Last i heard, china is also being limited in acquiring advanced electronics : In the short term, I'm sure China will be able to get whatever chips it needs (for military applications, at least) that are available on the civilian market, they'll just have to setup front companies, etc. In the medium to long term, this will motivate China to build the capacity it needs. It might ever exactly be cutting edge, but I'm…

> In the medium to long term, this will motivate China to build the capacity it needs. It might ever exactly be cutting edge, but I'm sure they'll get close enough that it won't matter too much. which says to me, that the export bans is a failure in policy then. The cost of the export ban is a drop in business value for all the companies being banned (and without compensation by the US gov't afaict). The ban isn't re…

> which says to me, that the export bans is a failure in policy then.

That's going too far. It's almost like saying "don't fight a battle that won't immediately win you the war." It's important not to overstate their effectiveness (an export ban won't hit some Achilles heel that grind their military to a halt), but that doesn't mean the short term effects aren't valuable and the right thing to do. These bans are delaying tactics, they'll make things harder but not impossible for Russia and China to do certain things, and they might have to make unwanted compromises (e.g. force short-term supply chain issues and redesigning using a less robust common civilian grade chip they can get on the grey market rather than the harder-to-get specialized chip they want).

Basically, don't let the perfect be the enemy of the good.

Re: Russian Assets Reportedly Seized at Baikonur Cosmodrome by Kazakh Authorities

#149

Post by chii »

tablespoon wrote: post #148
chii wrote: post #139

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> In the medium to long term, this will motivate China to build the capacity it needs. It might ever exactly be cutting edge, but I'm sure they'll get close enough that it won't matter too much. which says to me, that the export bans is a failure in policy then. The cost of the export ban is a drop in business value for all the companies being banned (and without compensation by the US gov't afaict). The ban isn't re…

> which says to me, that the export bans is a failure in policy then. That's going too far. It's almost like saying "don't fight a battle that won't immediately win you the war." It's important not to overstate their effectiveness (an export ban won't hit some Achilles heel that grind their military to a halt), but that doesn't mean the short term effects aren't valuable and the right thing to do. These bans are dela…

> don't let the perfect be the enemy of the good.

this assumes that the "good" is enough, given just a bit more time.

My concern is that a delaying tactic is insufficient. The bans will force the domestic production, for real this time, in these technologies.

After all, necessity is the mother of all inventions. If china was able to buy, at "slightly" elevated prices, western produced chips, the gov't would not really be able to convince businesses to take the hit and pay high capital cost to produce a worse version just as a stepping stone. The investment capital is likely to be wasteful, or misspent - since the "fallback" of western products are available (until they go to war like russia, and the cut off is abrupt and sudden).

A pro-longed ban, like what we see today, without the actual war to trigger it, is likely to give the domestic production the reason it needs to actually get their act together. There's no western "fallback" to make them complacent.

So either they fail miserably, or succeed and wipe the west's technological advantage.

The "good idea", might not be so good if that were to actually happen.

Re: Russian Assets Reportedly Seized at Baikonur Cosmodrome by Kazakh Authorities

#150

Post by tablespoon »

chii wrote: post #149
tablespoon wrote: post #148

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> which says to me, that the export bans is a failure in policy then. That's going too far. It's almost like saying "don't fight a battle that won't immediately win you the war." It's important not to overstate their effectiveness (an export ban won't hit some Achilles heel that grind their military to a halt), but that doesn't mean the short term effects aren't valuable and the right thing to do. These bans are dela…

> don't let the perfect be the enemy of the good. this assumes that the "good" is enough, given just a bit more time. My concern is that a delaying tactic is insufficient. The bans will force the domestic production, for real this time, in these technologies. After all, necessity is the mother of all inventions. If china was able to buy, at "slightly" elevated prices, western produced chips, the gov't would not reall…

> After all, necessity is the mother of all inventions. If china was able to buy, at "slightly" elevated prices, western produced chips, the gov't would not really be able to convince businesses to take the hit and pay high capital cost to produce a worse version just as a stepping stone. The investment capital is likely to be wasteful, or misspent - since the "fallback" of western products are available (until they go to war like russia, and the cut off is abrupt and sudden).

What do you mean? This is China we're talking about. Every major company has a cell of Communist party members. If the government makes a decision, you follow and don't complain too loudly or risk political consequences. And, IIRC, the Chinese government already made the decision to build up their chip industry years ago (Made in China 2025).

IMHO, it's quite plausible that not implementing an export ban would have just allowed them to make the transition to domestic production more cheaply and more smoothly.

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