Can I also trade “Will Chelsea win against Barcelona next weekend?”
Launch HN: Kalshi (YC W19) – A regulated exchange for trading on events
141–150 of 185 posts
Re: Launch HN: Kalshi (YC W19) – A regulated exchange for trading on events
#142What about inside trade? Isn’t there a big risk that people at institutions you use as source take bets last minute before they announce the critical information? Or maybe even change what they publish (maybe pretending it to be an honest mistake, which is corrected the next day) to win?
Re: Launch HN: Kalshi (YC W19) – A regulated exchange for trading on events
#143I am naive here. But is it a platform for gambling like features for markets?
Re: Launch HN: Kalshi (YC W19) – A regulated exchange for trading on events
#144Interactive Brokers startem Playing in this space too.
Re: Launch HN: Kalshi (YC W19) – A regulated exchange for trading on events
#145Earlier quoted context omitted.
Great question. A few things here. 1. we spent years working with the regulators on defining and building our surveillance systems. They basically ingest data from the exchange and run stats/some ML to flag suspicious trading patterns to an investigation team in our compliance department (similar to when NYSE flags a Goldman trader for insider trading) -- our systems have gotten really sophisticated and you'd be surp…
Isn't insider trading the entire point of a prediction market as an information aggregator?
No. Some people have information that they are not fiduciarilly bound to keep secret but they may still know things that would allow them to make a profit. That’s not insider trading, that’s knowing private information that isn’t reflected in market prices. That’s the point of a prediction market as an information aggregator.
Re: Launch HN: Kalshi (YC W19) – A regulated exchange for trading on events
#146This is awesome; prediction markets have made massive strides recently, with applications and implementations being useful from crypto to sports to politics. I'm surprised if there wasn't already a pool of smart contracts out there basically already emulating the space. The obvious first principled questions come to mind: definition ambiguity in the event and thus result, the Oracle problem confounds this by essentia…
> prediction markets have made massive strides recently
Note that Kalshi lobbied to shut down its competition (PredictIt), so overall benefits are not clear.
Re: Launch HN: Kalshi (YC W19) – A regulated exchange for trading on events
#147> Before Kalshi, markets that allowed you to trade on economically relevant events were illegal or unregulated. Totally untrue. PredictIt was legal and regulated and well-loved for many years, operating with the permission of the CFTC under a no-action letter. Then Kalshi hired former CFTC commissioner Brian Quintenz and soon, PredictIt was suddenly deemed by the CFTC to have committed still-unenumerated violations o…
Not only that, but at least in the UK, bookmakers take bets for newsworthy events. (Like elections)
Re: Launch HN: Kalshi (YC W19) – A regulated exchange for trading on events
#148Love the idea! Would love to try it out, but it seems it is not available in Europe.
Is there any plans in the near future to open in other regions?
Re: Launch HN: Kalshi (YC W19) – A regulated exchange for trading on events
#149Prediction markets are a fantastic concept with a ton of value I think for everyone. So I wish companies in the field success and I hope they thrive despite regulators doing their best to destroy them, like PredictIt. I think it's a shame Kalshi has managed to get their hooks into the CFTC and, rather than lobby to open the field to all prediction markets, instead lobbied for narrow permissions to operate only their…
Running a bucket shop is not innovation. Running a back-alley card game is not some brilliant new financialization of anything. Hustling financially illiterate or gambling-addicted suckers for their last quarters is really not about to herald a new era of anything interesting at all.
You would have to be a modern American to have so little clue about the types of frauds and scams that continue to be perpetrated to this very day that gave rise to the financial regulations we have now. There's always ways to improve regulation, but it's almost pathological how Americans refuse ever to acknowledge that there could be a huge body of law and volumes of history that might just explain the way things are. RTFM
Re: Launch HN: Kalshi (YC W19) – A regulated exchange for trading on events
#150There used to be betting on horse races, now these guys (well, not just them, but still) let you bet on the results of _human_ races. Will SCOTUS uphold civil right R ? Come make money off of it! Or - hedge your bets, and if the pseudo-democracy gets further downgraded - at least you'll be a little richer, at the expense of the poor saps who believed in "Golden Miller" or "Hoofs of Thunder". Oh, sorry, I meant to say…
That's one view of this - I'd say it's pretty cynical though... Reminds me of how people reacted to insurance when it was first being introduced to the broader population "gambling on human lives/death! terrible!!". While it's true to some extent, insurance is indeed crucial: one of the counter-parties is meaningfully reducing the risk of catastrophe, or extremely detrimental outcome at the very least. This can be ex…
So, what do you think about providing insurance to convenience store robbers against being caught by the cops? This will meaningfully reduce the risk of an extremely detrimental outcome for them.