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President Putin has announced a partial mobilization in Russia

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Re: President Putin has announced a partial mobilization in Russia

#141

This is really going to screw Russia for generations. Every young Russian I know has either already left, plans to leave, or has to stay but hates their leader. You don't get your country to turn into a superpower by losing the most educated and skilled of the young generations. I only hope as things get more desperate he doesn't feel trapped lash out with the nukes.

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Re: President Putin has announced a partial mobilization in Russia

#142
post #58

Is there any scenario from this point onwards, any at all that results in Russia coming out stronger once the smoke clears? Because I can't see any. Seems to me like the Russian govt are now in a situation where they have no choice but to see this thing through just to try and save face.

Mobilization could be a sign that it's no longer about face but about ass.

What does this mean?

Re: President Putin has announced a partial mobilization in Russia

#143
post #139

Earlier quoted context omitted.

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I don't think that's enough to counterbalance the flow in the other direction.

I agree with this statement, but there is a larger amount of Americans leaving the US than you’d expect.

Re: President Putin has announced a partial mobilization in Russia

#144

It is usually recommended here to read information from sources, here: Address by the President of the Russian Federation (English transcript) [1] (video in Russian, no subs)[2] [1] http://en.kremlin.ru/events/president/news/69390 [2] http://kremlin.ru/events/president/news/69390

Excerpts clarifying what is meant by "partial mobilization":

As I have said, we are talking about partial mobilisation. In other words, only military reservists, primarily those who served in the armed forces and have specific military occupational specialties and corresponding experience, will be called up.

Additionally, the Executive Order on partial mobilisation also stipulates additional measures for the fulfilment of the state defence order. The heads of defence industry enterprises will be directly responsible for attaining the goals of increasing the production of weapons and military equipment and using additional production facilities for this purpose. At the same time, the Government must address without any delay all aspects of material, resource and financial support for our defence enterprises.

Re: President Putin has announced a partial mobilization in Russia

#145

Earlier quoted context omitted.

To push to the extreme, you'd have to mobilize every single Russian to have a "full" mobilization. So anything short of that is a "partial" mobilization, which would be basically be any actual mobilization.

A full mobilisation would imply mobilising all the people who can be mobilised not every single Russian. That’s not what’s happening here hence the partial.

Shigu himself stated there are 25mil people eligible for the mobilization right now in ru. Thats pretty much everyone below 60.

Re: President Putin has announced a partial mobilization in Russia

#146

Their main propaganda news channel has already said (incorrectly) that they are already fighting NATO and US troops in the breakaway areas. Is it time to make this a reality? I really don't see it ending without it happening. russia has shown that it has no regard for the suffering of any troops of any nationality. So purely from a population perspective, Ukraine will fail eventually unless they can effectively force…

A direct war between NATO and Russia will go nuclear and cause tens of millions of casualties in the best case If you want to go and fight, do it yourself

Why? India is fighting China over a border conflict, no nukes used. Why would you think NATO securing Ukraine would end in a nuclear war? It's not as if either NATO or Russia is attacking on the others soil. Ukraine is neither NATO nor Russia, so there is no reason to claim it would be a direct conflict.

Re: President Putin has announced a partial mobilization in Russia

#147
post #102

Earlier quoted context omitted.

If they could conquer Ukraine and effectively quell unrest, the Federation could be said to have come out stronger. That is very unlikely though, with the Ukrainian army getting effective support. If they manage to hold the land bridge to Krim and negotiate a cease-fire, it can be argued that they had limited success in their objectives. But at a huge economic and humanitarian cost. And in a nuclear war, nobody wins.…

Would the West intervene in a nuclear war limited to Ukrainian territory?

In such case i would open NATO armoury for Ukrainians and gift them all the shiny toys they are willing to take.

Re: President Putin has announced a partial mobilization in Russia

#148
post #102

Earlier quoted context omitted.

If they could conquer Ukraine and effectively quell unrest, the Federation could be said to have come out stronger. That is very unlikely though, with the Ukrainian army getting effective support. If they manage to hold the land bridge to Krim and negotiate a cease-fire, it can be argued that they had limited success in their objectives. But at a huge economic and humanitarian cost. And in a nuclear war, nobody wins.…

Would the West intervene in a nuclear war limited to Ukrainian territory?

I wonder what that scenario would bring the Russian army. Tactical nukes against military targets are not that much more effective than a bunch of conventional missiles. Nuking the population would be hard to justify in their narrative.

On the other side, I don't know who would intervene. The risk of further escalation might lead to the acceptance of nuclear genocide limited to Ukraine. And Ukrainian capitulation would be swift if Russia demonstrated they were willing to attack the population with nuclear bombs. The whole scenario is difficult to imagine. The last time civilians got nuked is 77 years ago. And the Japanese people had nobody who could have retaliated for them.

Re: President Putin has announced a partial mobilization in Russia

#149
post #65

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Calling Ukraine "The Ukraine" is a Russian tactic to make Ukraine seem less like a country and more like a region. Quoting from wikipedia: > However, since Ukraine's declaration of independence in 1991, [calling Ukraine "The Ukraine"] has become politicised and is now rarer, and style guides advise against its use. US ambassador William Taylor said that using "the Ukraine" implies disregard for Ukrainian sovereignty.…

> Calling Ukraine "The Ukraine" is a Russian tactic... This is just wrong. If you search for the word Ukraine on the Russian government site kremlin.ru (there is an English-language version), you will find that this word is used there without the article. I am sure you'll get the same results if you search RT's web site. The article isn't the Russians' doing, especially given that there aren't any articles in most Sl…

Russians refer to Ukraine as a territory in their language by using preposition "на" instead of "в". They don't respect sovereignty of Ukraine in their language.

"Ukraine" doesn't mean borderland, it's another Russian attitude with the aim to humiliate Ukrainian nation. You can also look at the map and see who is really a borderland of the civilized world.

Re: President Putin has announced a partial mobilization in Russia

#150

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Nukes are a possibility, but MAD has stopped us all using them for many years so far. As far as conventional arms go: Russia has quite a few planes, tanks, and artillery; however, so long as the USA wills it, the Ukraine will have more anti-air missiles, more anti-tank munitions, and more long-range rockets. In any long-range fight, being able to locate your enemy is key; the pentagons ability to identify the locatio…

Does MAD really protect Ukraine? Edit: suppose the old man has properly lost it. If Putin drops a tactical nuke on a Ukranian military position, will Nato really respond in kind? Seems like damned if you do, damned if you don't situation.

It might not be MAD but there is a really strong incentive from everyone else to maintain the nuclear taboo. Russia can expect NATO to get directly involved in the conventional war as well as losing their remaining allies if they do that. Whether that leads to further escalation or not is up to them.
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