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Stanley Druckenmiller warns the stock market will be ‘flat’ for an entire decade

fortune.com

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Re: Stanley Druckenmiller warns the stock market will be ‘flat’ for an entire decade

#141

Post by hotpotamus »

coldcode wrote: post #81
mattbrewsbytes wrote: post #38

And Michael Burry has been predicting crashes every few years since the 2008 one. And Bill Ackman predicted 'hell is coming' at the onset of the pandemic and made $2B [0]. And there were US Senators that also did possibly illegal things to pull money out of the market before the public knew about the pandemic. Outside of disclosures filed with the SEC, stock trading is anonymous yet they will have all sorts of headli…

I read a lot of these type of predictions, often you see some people say it's a great time to buy, and others it's a bad time to buy, and generally you will only remember the people who guessed correctly, so none of this helps you today at all. Every time those people who got lucky will appear in some future ad or article making a new prediction, and generally fewer will be lucky twice. In the long run, everyone is l…

It turns out it's hard to make predictions; especially about the future.

Re: Stanley Druckenmiller warns the stock market will be ‘flat’ for an entire decade

#142

Post by danielmarkbruce »

nprateem wrote: post #130
anm89 wrote: post #128

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Yeah some clowns named Ray and Warren also keeps crying wolf about how the economy has issues too. These guys have no idea what they are talking about! I don't think they even trade.

Buffett has also been predicting the mother of all crashes since 2016. Lesson: never listen to experts unless you discover one with a time machine. Like they say, more wealth has been lost trying to time the market than in crashes.

Source? I haven't seen Buffett say anything of the sort and am pretty certain he hasnt.

Re: Stanley Druckenmiller warns the stock market will be ‘flat’ for an entire decade

#143

Post by taylodl »

serioussecurity wrote: post #139
taylodl wrote: post #101

Earlier quoted context omitted.

This is why the dollar cost averaging technique works so well. No, it's not likely to provide you a financial windfall, but it's also not likely to yield you financial devastation either. If you're investing for retirement then it generates quite a bit of wealth in the long term.

This is incorrect. https://static.twentyoverten.com/5980d16bbfb1c93238ad9c24/rJ...

Yeah, no. Us normal working stiffs don't typically have a $20M windfall we're looking to invest. That's a whole other ballgame.

Re: Stanley Druckenmiller warns the stock market will be ‘flat’ for an entire decade

#144

Post by twawaaay »

KptMarchewa wrote: post #131
twawaaay wrote: post #97

Earlier quoted context omitted.

What you do is look at the rationale that was given before it happened. You look at their reasoning and figure out if it was actually what happened in reality. Just make sure you are not picking up on their rationalisation after the fact.

The fact that they had good reasoning in the past does not guarantee they will continue in the future.

You are right, but it is not very useful way of looking at the world.

Sometimes you just need to trust people on certain things to be able to make useful decisions having very little or no knowledge in the subject.

One useful way of dealing with this is to look at the past performance of the person.

Assuming you have no other information about the market, if you see a person having track record of well-reasoned, accurate market predictions it is probably as good signal as it gets that you should trust their predictions.

Ideally you would want to check this with other people having knowledge in the topic (and also good track record), check that their knowledge is still applicable to circumstances (if they were able to give good predictions in peace maybe they are not suited to doing this in the time of war) and hopefully also educate yourself just a bit to be able to ask clarifying questions and spot obvious problems.

Re: Stanley Druckenmiller warns the stock market will be ‘flat’ for an entire decade

#145

Post by fullshark »

mattbrewsbytes wrote: post #38

And Michael Burry has been predicting crashes every few years since the 2008 one. And Bill Ackman predicted 'hell is coming' at the onset of the pandemic and made $2B [0]. And there were US Senators that also did possibly illegal things to pull money out of the market before the public knew about the pandemic. Outside of disclosures filed with the SEC, stock trading is anonymous yet they will have all sorts of headli…

My knee jerk reaction was yours, but he does flesh out his argument in the piece, and it makes sense...

Re: Stanley Druckenmiller warns the stock market will be ‘flat’ for an entire decade

#146

Post by danielmarkbruce »

twawaaay wrote: post #97
foobarian wrote: post #88

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Your comment makes me realize that in the medium term, after most of the unlucky predictors drop off, you are statistically likely to be left with a few really lucky ones (i.e. if a thousand people are tossing coins, you're likely to get one guy with a streak of 10 heads), and these individuals are perfect to put on pedestals as rare and brilliant talents.

What you do is look at the rationale that was given before it happened. You look at their reasoning and figure out if it was actually what happened in reality. Just make sure you are not picking up on their rationalisation after the fact.

The rationalizations before they happened are always very intelligent sounding, even in retrospect. If you have 100 intelligent sounding speculators lay out their reasoning and one hits the jackpot, it doesn't mean much.

The general problem is each has a mental (or computer) model of the world that is a vast simplification of the world. When they get it right it sounds like they understood and accounted for all the variables. They never did.

Re: Stanley Druckenmiller warns the stock market will be ‘flat’ for an entire decade

#147

Post by ericbarrett »

foobarian wrote: post #88
coldcode wrote: post #81

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I read a lot of these type of predictions, often you see some people say it's a great time to buy, and others it's a bad time to buy, and generally you will only remember the people who guessed correctly, so none of this helps you today at all. Every time those people who got lucky will appear in some future ad or article making a new prediction, and generally fewer will be lucky twice. In the long run, everyone is l…

Your comment makes me realize that in the medium term, after most of the unlucky predictors drop off, you are statistically likely to be left with a few really lucky ones (i.e. if a thousand people are tossing coins, you're likely to get one guy with a streak of 10 heads), and these individuals are perfect to put on pedestals as rare and brilliant talents.

The inverse of this is an old, old scam:

1) Send out a bunch of letters predicting moves on (usually) penny stocks; a different set of stocks is used for each letter

2) A few days later, cull the recipients whose predictions didn't work out. Send another batch of predictions, again individually varied, to the remainder

3) Repeat once or twice more and you've got a small list of people who've received three or four correct predictions in a row. Hammer them with solicitations to invest in your "foolproof" scheme

4) Collect (via a pump-and-dump, or just solicit the money directly and run)

Nowadays it's probably happening in Telegram groups or some such. Or you could do this on Reddit et al. using different usernames, and only keep the accounts that were right.

Re: Stanley Druckenmiller warns the stock market will be ‘flat’ for an entire decade

#148

Post by mountainriver »

I have a very different position on this. I think we will see the most growth we’ve ever seen in the next decade and it will be powered by AI.

I think most of these investors don’t really understand how close we are to have very useful AI and what it’s impact will be. We are roughly on the verge of another industrial revolution

Re: Stanley Druckenmiller warns the stock market will be ‘flat’ for an entire decade

#149

Post by twawaaay »

danielmarkbruce wrote: post #146
twawaaay wrote: post #97

Earlier quoted context omitted.

What you do is look at the rationale that was given before it happened. You look at their reasoning and figure out if it was actually what happened in reality. Just make sure you are not picking up on their rationalisation after the fact.

The rationalizations before they happened are always very intelligent sounding, even in retrospect. If you have 100 intelligent sounding speculators lay out their reasoning and one hits the jackpot, it doesn't mean much. The general problem is each has a mental (or computer) model of the world that is a vast simplification of the world. When they get it right it sounds like they understood and accounted for all the v…

You are not looking if they "sounded" intelligent. You are looking if they were true.

Re: Stanley Druckenmiller warns the stock market will be ‘flat’ for an entire decade

#150

Post by thingification »

twawaaay wrote: post #144
KptMarchewa wrote: post #131

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The fact that they had good reasoning in the past does not guarantee they will continue in the future.

You are right, but it is not very useful way of looking at the world. Sometimes you just need to trust people on certain things to be able to make useful decisions having very little or no knowledge in the subject. One useful way of dealing with this is to look at the past performance of the person. Assuming you have no other information about the market, if you see a person having track record of well-reasoned, accu…

So who has done well on this score in your book? :-)
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