Germany shelves Nord Stream 2 pipeline • Hacker News Board

Re: Germany shelves Nord Stream 2 pipeline

#141

Post by [deleted] » Tue, Feb 22, 2022, 1:59 PM UTC

littlestymaar wrote: post #114

piokoch wrote: post #93

Earlier quoted context omitted.

China is not stupid to become depended on Russian gas or oil supply. The deal they signed with Russia is for 38 billion cubic meters of gas sent through "Power of Siberia" gas pipe (for comparison, in 2006 Poland purchase from Russia 206 billion cubic meters) and this throughput will be reached in 2025. Russia has no practical way to transfer gas designated for Europe to China, there is no pipe they can use as gas co…

> Taiwan, Philippines, Japan... Come on, China is bad enough as it is, no need to overdo it with imaginary threats. (Edit: wow impressed by how fast these downvotes came. I wonder if it was triggered by the “China is bad” part or my point that a Chinese invasion of Japan or Philippines is a complete fantasy. In case it's the second part, you should probably take a break from American news…)

[deleted]

Re: Germany shelves Nord Stream 2 pipeline

#142

Post by dustinmoris » Tue, Feb 22, 2022, 2:00 PM UTC

enriquto wrote: post #124

dustinmoris wrote: post #96

Am I the only one who thinks that the reality of this crisis is a lot more nuanced than what Western media shows us? Same as with Taiwan. It's an island off China and rebels flew there at some point and started to govern Taiwan as if it was theirs. China always insisted that Taiwan is part of China but because they never used military force to put an end to the game which those rebels played on that island it became…

> Same as with Taiwan. It's an island off China and rebels flew there at some point That's a subjective way to put it, isn't it? You could also say that "rebels" took all of mainland China and Taiwan is the last remaining standoff of the "true" China.

Disagree. Objectively speaking this is not how it works and never has worked in history. The winner takes it all, that's how it worked across the globe in all other territories across the world.

EDIT: Also this argument if completely flawed because Taiwan has no leg to stand on. The only reason why it existed the way it has for so long is because China has actually been nice and not exercised its power. If China was to move troops into Taiwan next week there would be no actual opposition apart from fake outrage in the West, same as what happened with Hong Kong. HK was always part of China historically and the West initially agreed a deal with China to be allowed to have a base there and as time has moved on they thought they could infiltrate from within HK to make the independent and make it a US proxy state, but China, just like Russia now probably, has remained firm to the original roots of HK and now re-exercised their right claim over it and as we have seen the West has done nothing abou tit because they know they 1. cannot and 2. have no real right.

Re: Germany shelves Nord Stream 2 pipeline

#143

Post by darebak » Tue, Feb 22, 2022, 2:00 PM UTC

_ph_ wrote: post #87

yostrovs wrote: post #42

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Germany doesn't care about Ukraine. They have to look like they do. Once the Ukrainian issue settles down again like it did after 2014 and everyone in the west moves on to other things, Germany will simply push the start button and gas will flow.

No, certainly not. First of all, Germany does care about the Ukraine. Both on a political level as on a social one. Many Germany have friendships with people from Ukraine. I myself have several in my wider social circle. There is also the European perspective. The cornerstone of European piece policy has been the integrity of state borders. This is now violated, so this is of very grave concern. Putin himself stated…

>The cornerstone of European piece policy has been the integrity of state borders. This is now violated, so this is of very grave concern.

Now? What about Kosovo* and to lesser degree other conflicts in ex-Yugoslavia? Germany even had an active role in that.

Re: Germany shelves Nord Stream 2 pipeline

#144

Post by jonathanstrange » Tue, Feb 22, 2022, 2:00 PM UTC

chrisseaton wrote: post #62

Bud wrote: post #52

Earlier quoted context omitted.

This honestly just isn't that significant. Germany's navy, and indeed, German military forces generally, are not relevant to this crisis and will play basically zero part in it. So all of this analysis and blame-gaming you're trying to do just are not of much import.

I wonder what contingencies the Germany navy is planned for and capable of handling, if they couldn't even get their heads around this being a possibility?

The German navy consists of more than one guy (who, by the way, didn't state what you claimed he stated).

Re: Germany shelves Nord Stream 2 pipeline

#145

Post by [deleted] » Tue, Feb 22, 2022, 2:00 PM UTC

credit_guy wrote: post #45

Here's some quick numbers I just googled to understand the big picture. This pipeline has an annual capacity of 55 billion cubic meters. It's the same capacity as the Nord Stream 1, which is already in operation. If Germany was truly meaning business, they'd stop Nord Stream 1 the moment Russian boots enter Ukrainian territory. But let's leave that aside. 55 billion cubic meters translate to about 0.6 billion MWh. Th…

[deleted]

Re: Germany shelves Nord Stream 2 pipeline

#146

Post by rad_gruchalski » Tue, Feb 22, 2022, 2:01 PM UTC

piokoch wrote: post #93

Loic wrote: post #53

My personal opinion: All this Ukraine stuff is also supported by China. I bet they are ready to buy Russian oil and gas to compensate even if this costs them more than getting them from the open market. Why? Because this is a wonderful test drive to check how the West (sorry for the approximation) is reacting to a country theoretically supported by the West being invaded by another one. For me, the next one on the li…

China is not stupid to become depended on Russian gas or oil supply. The deal they signed with Russia is for 38 billion cubic meters of gas sent through "Power of Siberia" gas pipe (for comparison, in 2006 Poland purchase from Russia 206 billion cubic meters) and this throughput will be reached in 2025. Russia has no practical way to transfer gas designated for Europe to China, there is no pipe they can use as gas co…

Uh, it’s a 30 year contract and China is also investing in Russian lng related companies:

https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/a-property-sells-10-....

From another source: https://lngprime.com/asia/chinas-zhejiang-energy-to-buy-stak...

> Furthermore, A-Property said that the project involves building a 1358 kilometers long pipeline that would connect Yatek’s fields in Yakutia to the 18 mtpa LNG plant near Ayan on the Sea of Okhotsk.

From there, it seems to be pretty close to China.

I said this in another thread yesterday:

I very much think that this contract is what gave Russia the upper hand. When the Western Europe was the majority market gor Russian gas, things were status quo. Once China starts buying more and more gas from Russia, Russia doesn’t have to please Europe anymore and Europe can impose any sanctions it wants.

Re: Germany shelves Nord Stream 2 pipeline

#147

Post by chess_buster » Tue, Feb 22, 2022, 2:01 PM UTC

chrisseaton wrote: post #62

Bud wrote: post #52

Earlier quoted context omitted.

This honestly just isn't that significant. Germany's navy, and indeed, German military forces generally, are not relevant to this crisis and will play basically zero part in it. So all of this analysis and blame-gaming you're trying to do just are not of much import.

I wonder what contingencies the Germany navy is planned for and capable of handling, if they couldn't even get their heads around this being a possibility?

None whatsoever.

Re: Germany shelves Nord Stream 2 pipeline

#148

Post by larksimian » Tue, Feb 22, 2022, 2:01 PM UTC

codewithcheese wrote: post #112

csee wrote: post #90

Earlier quoted context omitted.

South Korea's demography is crashed but their economic growth is still strong. There is more to growth than that. There's no reason why China can't double its GDP in the next few decades and then assert itself much more strongly after it has achieved that.

Why has South Korea continued to grow, despite the demography crash? And how do you think it compares to Japan? Genuine questions.

Not op, but. SK demographics are only now starting to stagnate and are not decreasing. Japan has had stableish/declining population for a while. Different situations.

China is not really comparable since there is still a substantial reserve army of rural inhabitants that can be drawn into industry (900 mil urban/500 mil rural). Until the rural pop is drained you'll continue to see strong growth in china.

Re: Germany shelves Nord Stream 2 pipeline

#149

Post by JumpCrisscross » Tue, Feb 22, 2022, 2:02 PM UTC

_ph_ wrote: post #127

cinntaile wrote: post #102

Earlier quoted context omitted.

You can also use the heat directly (district heating) without having to go to electricity and back. This limits the electricity output efficiency but increases the overall efficiency of the plant. It requires changes to the turbines and the buildout of a district heating system though.

Sure you could heat with nuclear directly. Actually that sounds like something that should have been done when nuclear was in fashion. But you would have to produce a lot of new infrastructure and most of all, new nuclear plants. None of the existing nuclear plants is suitable for that. And that is sure, while keeping the remaining nuclear power plants in service a little bit longer might be a consideration (though u…

Germans can barely get their heads around nuclear energy. Pumping fluids that have been anywhere near a reactor into homes will be untenable.

Re: Germany shelves Nord Stream 2 pipeline

#150

Post by hannasanarion » Tue, Feb 22, 2022, 2:02 PM UTC

fsh wrote: post #94

bungle wrote: post #78

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> First of all, a lot of gas gets used for heating - nuclear isn't useful there All electricity basically turns to heat at some point. So why not?

You lose something like 70% of the thermal output of the reactor in the conversion to electricity. Also the capacities a nowhere near large enough. Nord Stream 2 alone can transport something like 63 GW worth of gas. This is more than the total electricity consumption of Germany.

And for a home heater, 80% of the heat from the gas you burn goes up the chimney.

Larger energy capture devices can be more efficient. One highly-efficient fuel burning plant providing power to a hundred thousand electric resistive heaters can produce more useful heat per unit fuel than a hundred thousand small-scale self-maintained home furnaces.