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Indiana life insurance CEO says deaths are up 40% among people ages 18-64

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Re: Indiana life insurance CEO says deaths are up 40% among people ages 18-64

#141

Post by arcticbull »

nerdbaggy wrote: post #98
ganoushoreilly wrote: post #57

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Within my brothers circle of friends / former friends etc, amongst those that participate in recreational drug use, there have been a crazy number of Fentanyl related deaths. They're all between the ages of 25 - 30. I can't help but wonder how much this has an impact.

Correct! “ The synthetic and highly addictive drug has claimed more lives than COVID-19, auto crashes, gun violence, cancer and suicide in the year 2020.” https://www.abc12.com/news/fentanyl-number-one-cause-of-deat...

> "The synthetic and highly addictive drug"

Funny use of the word 'synthetic' to add extra spookiness. Something like 60% of first-world medicines are natural origin or secondary metabolites of natural origin - the other 40% are all synthetic. [1]

[1] https://www.spandidos-publications.com/10.3892/br.2017.909

Re: Indiana life insurance CEO says deaths are up 40% among people ages 18-64

#142

Post by truffdog »

newacc9 wrote: post #113
yehosef wrote: post #106

Here's an interesting video about an increase in sports-related deaths and heart-attacks. Maybe it's related? https://rumble.com/vpnxkr-are-these-side-effects-extremely-r...

There's funeral directors on youtube and bitchute that say their workload has increased 5x and the deaths are all heart related.

That's a potential COVID complication, right?

Re: Indiana life insurance CEO says deaths are up 40% among people ages 18-64

#143

Post by leni536 »

brianwawok wrote: post #104
brilee wrote: post #81

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Assuming risk is evenly distributed between birth and death, you would expect a 1 in 80 chance of dying in any given year. But since the risk is loaded towards the later years of life, 1 in 200 during the earlier years sounds about right. Perhaps it's 2x higher than I would have guessed otherwise, but it's the right order of magnitude.

No that is bad math around 1/80. If the average person had a 1/80 chance to die each year, the average life expectancy would be 40 years. Think about this another way. You have a gun with 80 chambers and 1 bullet. How many times on average can you point it at your head and pull the trigger before it goes off? Would you still argue 80 times? On average it is the last chamber?

That's not how it works. For a geometric distribution with p=1/80 the mean or expected value is indeed 80.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Geometric_distribution

Your gun example has a uniform distribution between 1 and 80 with an expected value of roughly 40 if you don't spin the chamber each time between pulling the trigger. If you spin it each time, then it's again the geometric distribution and the expected value is 80.

If you don't spin the chamber between each time, then each time you pull the trigger the probability of dying at that round is not 1/80, the probability goes up and up at each round, it's only 1/80 on the first round.

Re: Indiana life insurance CEO says deaths are up 40% among people ages 18-64

#145

Post by truffdog »

sudosysgen wrote: post #121
jfim wrote: post #67

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> P2P meth For those confused by the P2P acronym as I was, it's apparently a synthesis route that was developed in response to the crackdowns on OTC ephedrine products. It's apparently a lot more pure than the older stuff, at least according to https://dynomight.net/p2p-meth/

Huh wasn't that a plot point in breaking bad?

Yup. Apparently some of the broad strokes of the plot are accurate, including the move to industrialized p2p production.

Re: Indiana life insurance CEO says deaths are up 40% among people ages 18-64

#146

Post by joenathanone »

newacc9 wrote: post #113
yehosef wrote: post #106

Here's an interesting video about an increase in sports-related deaths and heart-attacks. Maybe it's related? https://rumble.com/vpnxkr-are-these-side-effects-extremely-r...

There's funeral directors on youtube and bitchute that say their workload has increased 5x and the deaths are all heart related.

Link(s)?

Re: Indiana life insurance CEO says deaths are up 40% among people ages 18-64

#147

Post by lordnacho »

jb1991 wrote: post #76
k2enemy wrote: post #6

I'm actually surprised it is not higher. For 40-64 year old in the US, the annual chance of death is about half a percent (before covid) so a 40% increase is still a very low mortality rate. https://hdpulse.nimhd.nih.gov/data/deathrates/index.php?stat...

I’m surprised it is as high as you claim! You’re saying that for that age group, in a given year, the chances are 1 in 200 of dying? That seems like pretty bad odds on something that is literally life and death.

How old are you? How many people from your high school years have passed? Say, in your year and the years adjacent, where you might be told the news?

Out of about 90, I can count 4. Graduated 1999. 1 in 200 per year sounds like it might be ballpark, though of course from my limited set it's hard to tell. Assuming the rate is low at around 40 but a fair bit lower when you've just graduated, and a fair bit higher as you pass 60.

Re: Indiana life insurance CEO says deaths are up 40% among people ages 18-64

#148

Post by lukeschlather »

hn_throwaway_99 wrote: post #109
TRossi wrote: post #75

“Just to give you an idea of how bad that is, a three-sigma or a one-in-200-year catastrophe would be 10% increase over pre-pandemic,” he said. “So 40% is just unheard of.” This sounds very strange indeed, I'd like to see the numbers. For instance Euromomo https://www.euromomo.eu collects the statistics about death rates, here is a plot for the Italian death rate and you can see the mortality spikes with the covid wa…

Doesn't seem that is unbelievable at all to me. Instead I think it just highlights how humans can discount the severity of something when it moves slowly and continues for years. Remember the Boxing Day tsunami in 2004 that was a major catastrophe around the world? According to a Google search it killed 227,898 people. Last I checked Covid had killed about 5.5 million, which is worse that every single war since WWII.…

Covid has obviously caused infrastructure problems, though the contrast with a war is similar. There are tons of minor maintenance tasks where there are one or two people who need to do some thing every week. Maybe all the people who are responsible for the task are laid up for a week and incapable of doing the maintenance. Multiply that by hundreds of thousands of people getting infected every week you end up with a lot of missed maintenance. And of course the risk that those one or two or three key people die and the task never gets done again until the system just hits the failure mode that the task was intended to avoid.

Re: Indiana life insurance CEO says deaths are up 40% among people ages 18-64

#149

Post by mlyle »

jeffbee wrote: post #114
nerdbaggy wrote: post #98

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Correct! “ The synthetic and highly addictive drug has claimed more lives than COVID-19, auto crashes, gun violence, cancer and suicide in the year 2020.” https://www.abc12.com/news/fentanyl-number-one-cause-of-deat...

No byline. No sources. Bad article. The article appears to attribute all accidental poisoning to fentanyl. That seems like an error.

> The article appears to attribute all accidental poisoning to fentanyl. That seems like an error.

I don't think it does. Sure, they throw out the 100k overdoses number at the end, which isn't specific to fentanyl, but the other numbers they cite are around 40k/year and a run rate of 64k/year by Deceber 2021.

Current data is here:

https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/nvss/vsrr/drug-overdose-data.htm

It's about 62k deaths from synthetic opioids/year (excluding methadone) at the end of the series-- the vast majority of these are fentanyl. Plus a bunch of heroin deaths which are rapidly becoming "really fentanyl" deaths. And that's up to April, not December.

Re: Indiana life insurance CEO says deaths are up 40% among people ages 18-64

#150

Post by cperciva »

encoderer wrote: post #138

> Just to give you an idea of how bad that is, a three-sigma or a one-in-200-year catastrophe would be 10% increase over pre-pandemic,” he said. “So 40% is just unheard of.” Do we have an actuarial crisis on our hands? We’ve seen the same thing in finance, disaster preparedness and other unrelated industries. We have “once in 200 years” events happening it seems far more often than once in 200 years. And how does it…

I doubt there's an actuarial crisis brewing, for the simple reason that changes in life expectancy are a known risk which can be hedged. In the case of life insurance companies, the usual solution is to also sell life annuities; if insurance payouts go up, annuity payouts go down.
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