141–150 of 1001 posts
FTX [0] has President Trump's chances at remaining President in February 2021 at a little over 10%. Numerous legal pathways remain for President Trump to win. https://ftx.com/trade/TRUMPFEB
Calling this a 10% chance he continues to be president in Feb21 is disingenuous at best.
Can we have a conversation about broader implications of the increasing power in the public discourse of Twitter et al.? I’m no Trump supporter but I do wonder if the tables were turned and Twitter e.g. turned Biden’s page into a wall of hidden tweets because of something it disagreed with (there are enough grievances with Big Tech from both sides). Do people think this is isolated (because Trump is, well, Trump) or…
I just realized that Trump could become presidential candidate again in 2024 for a second term. So it might not be over yet.
FTX [0] has President Trump's chances at remaining President in February 2021 at a little over 10%. Numerous legal pathways remain for President Trump to win. https://ftx.com/trade/TRUMPFEB
Can we have a conversation about broader implications of the increasing power in the public discourse of Twitter et al.? I’m no Trump supporter but I do wonder if the tables were turned and Twitter e.g. turned Biden’s page into a wall of hidden tweets because of something it disagreed with (there are enough grievances with Big Tech from both sides). Do people think this is isolated (because Trump is, well, Trump) or…
I’m censored on HN because I subscribe to wrongthink. @dang declared that no matter how calmly and politely I stated mainstream conservative positions, I’m an inherent flame war because the audience wants me silenced. This is here to stay. Edit: Looks like @dang beat me to a citation, but I’d invite readers to review my post history in general.
Interesting fact I noticed: If Biden is to take the presidency after the Electoral Collage voted that would make him the oldest president to take office yet, also interesting that wikipedia already marked Biden as president-elect [0]. [0]: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_presidents_of_the_Unit...
Can we have a conversation about broader implications of the increasing power in the public discourse of Twitter et al.? I’m no Trump supporter but I do wonder if the tables were turned and Twitter e.g. turned Biden’s page into a wall of hidden tweets because of something it disagreed with (there are enough grievances with Big Tech from both sides). Do people think this is isolated (because Trump is, well, Trump) or…
There are a lot of curious statistics about ballot counts in a few swing states, including a record-breaking 90% turn-out in Wisconsin. https://theredelephants.com/there-is-undeniable-mathematical... (Ignore the flame-bait headline, and go right to the charts.)
On the data nerd side I continue to be shocked at how people misinterpret the certainty of polls/forecasts. Forecasts give us probability distributions based on historical polling error data. Not infallible predictions the expected value will 100% happen. It’s fairly revealing of society’s general innumeracy, just as it was 4 years ago when Trump won.
But the polls then and now weren’t just bad, they were shockingly bad and not representative of any real population that matters in an election. I’d expect something like this from junior engineers looking at metrics for the first time, but these are supposedly the most respective organizations in their field that have failed spectacularly for the second presidential election in a row. What value do they possibly ser…
Polls can only guess about turnout and the try to work backwards from there. The turnout estimates were wrong but not shockingly so, and as a consequence a lot of polls ended up having the result be at the far end of their margin of error. Nothing went wrong. Polling is hard. Get over this idea that you can have some sort of certainty regarding an election until we actually hold the election.