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ByteDance investors value TikTok at $50B in takeover bid

reuters.com

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Re: ByteDance investors value TikTok at $50B in takeover bid

#141

Post by cambalache »

capableweb wrote: post #124
cambalache wrote: post #118

No matter what the future may bring for TikTok, it has surprised me because it definitely showed that the Chinese are coming with their unicorns and coming hard. I was expecting something like that but in a decade or so. You can argue that is not that technically advanced and slightly derivative, but its explosive growth, smart user engagement tactics, polished presentation (a constant weak point with Chinese product…

Name one US unicorn that is not "not that technically advanced and slightly derivative". Basically all the work developers are doing nowadays is in one or another building on the shoulders of giants ("slightly derivative")

SpaceX. In any case there is nothing wrong with being "slightly derivative", especially since the concept is really vague, but there are still degrees. So I would argue that what SpaceX, Tesla or DeepMind(Google) are doing is more difficult and challenging comparing to what tik-tok, twitter or instagram do. Even if you claim all work is derivative.

Re: ByteDance investors value TikTok at $50B in takeover bid

#142

Post by socalnate1 »

paulpauper wrote: post #35

These ppl who say tech is a bubble need to give it a rest. They have been saying since 2009 that Amazon, Tesla, Facebook, Uber, AirBNB, Instagram, etc. are a bubble, and have wrong ever since as valuations keep rising. The pandemic has only made apps more valuable, due to physical stores being closed and unemployed people having more free time to use apps. They, these bubble forecasters, were only right in the 80s (v…

"But this time really is different." Sigh...

Re: ByteDance investors value TikTok at $50B in takeover bid

#143

Post by earthboundkid »

diag wrote: post #119
_6fmb wrote: post #98

Earlier quoted context omitted.

As said in some other comments, TikTok does not use a "follow" model, new content is algorithmically recommended to you. Therefore there is no problem with the content creators you're following burning out or your follow list getting stale. For example my highschool friends are no longer that active on facebook, and in 2020 I'm no longer asking random people to add me to FB, therefore facebook is now kind of dead to…

Youtube does a pretty good job of recommending new content though.

I feel like YT used to be better at recommending stuff to me. Now it just sends me more what I've already seen. It seems like it's falling into the "you just bought a lawnmower. do you want to buy 500 more lawnmowers???" recommendation engine trap.

Re: ByteDance investors value TikTok at $50B in takeover bid

#144

Post by FooBarWidget »

stale2002 wrote: post #139
FooBarWidget wrote: post #61

Earlier quoted context omitted.

You mean, as opposed to other countries, where entities that threaten to overthrow their governments are allowed to continue to operate?

Look if you think it is justified for China to keep out foreign companies, fine. But if that is your opinion then don't come crying to the rest of the world, when they do the same exact thing to Chinese corporations that China has been doing to others, for decades. Fair is fair.

I don't have an opinion on whether or not it is justified. I just think that the statement I replied to, is a very weird one. One reason being the leap of logic.

And frankly I doubt the correctness of the statement altogether. There are a ton of American companies operating in China, much more than the number of banned ones. How many US companies does China really ban?

What all these comments about 'fairness' also don't mention is that under the WTO rules, developing nations (which China officially is) are allowed to take protectionist measures.

Re: ByteDance investors value TikTok at $50B in takeover bid

#145

Post by chillacy »

paulpauper wrote: post #64
reaperducer wrote: post #60

Earlier quoted context omitted.

All of that is only true if you only look at the successes, such as those you’ve illustrated. For every pundit-bashed unicorn, there are tens of thousands of times the pundits got it right.

look at all the articles since 2010 or so about Amazon and Tesla being bubbles. Or before that, articles in 2007-2010 about Facebook being Myspace. Or about Uber dying due to debt (this was in 2014-2016). These are the companies pundits write the most about ,and have been wrong. Yeah, many unicorns do fail or get acquired for sub-billion, but pundits seldom if ever write about them, except when they fail. The media w…

There's an often-shared image of the excitement of a technology looking like a V shape, with a valley of disappointment following a big media hype. I wonder if that's why the Bill Gates quote rings so true: "Most people overestimate what they can do in one year and underestimate what they can do in ten years"

Re: ByteDance investors value TikTok at $50B in takeover bid

#146

Post by 3pt14159 »

earthboundkid wrote: post #140
3pt14159 wrote: post #108

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Yeah but they don't pretend that it is foolproof. It's the typical government "we have to do something" answer to a fundamental problem. Software defined networks are not secure from state level interference and everybody in tech that is honest knows it. And since they are not secure, and not easily monitored with strong encryption they're the perfect delivery vector for targeted malware. I wish we had the political…

There are two questions about the CCP and spyware: is it technically possible and do they have the political will to do it? I don't think the CCP is putting spyware into the iPhone because it's only barely technically possible and they don't have the will to risk it. Getting caught with your hand in the cookie jar there would be the end of their whole economic strategy. Would the CCP put spyware into Tik Tok? It's tr…

What I've learned over the years is that the lines always get tapped. The just do. Whether it's the telegraph, the telephone, or fiberoptic cables under the sea. The lines get tapped if at all possible.

I don't believe for one second that the CCP doesn't leverage Chinese made networking gear for intelligence. They probably even leverage third party gear too. This stuff is all so insecure everyone is in everything anyway.

Re: ByteDance investors value TikTok at $50B in takeover bid

#147

Post by philosopher1234 »

socalnate1 wrote: post #142
paulpauper wrote: post #35

These ppl who say tech is a bubble need to give it a rest. They have been saying since 2009 that Amazon, Tesla, Facebook, Uber, AirBNB, Instagram, etc. are a bubble, and have wrong ever since as valuations keep rising. The pandemic has only made apps more valuable, due to physical stores being closed and unemployed people having more free time to use apps. They, these bubble forecasters, were only right in the 80s (v…

"But this time really is different." Sigh...

Could you explain why you disagree?

Re: ByteDance investors value TikTok at $50B in takeover bid

#148

Post by enumjorge »

paulpan wrote: post #117

It's sort to sad to see TikTok being forcibly sold off due to geopolitical factors, rather than on more business ones (e.g. competitiveness). Despite the controversy with its personal data leakage, TikTok has been massively successful and put the established players like Facebook, Twitter and even YouTube on alert. Competition forces companies to improve and just as we need Android to hold iOS accountable, etc TikTok…

On the other hand I think it’s good for governments to face the consequences of their actions. If the Chinese government wants to treat technology as a surveillance mechanism, they shouldn’t be surprised when other countries want to avoid Chinese apps. Similarly, after revelations that the US government was messing with American companies, we lost business in places like Europe.

It is unfortunate that there’s less diversity of competition, but the loss of trust happened for a reason.

Re: ByteDance investors value TikTok at $50B in takeover bid

#149

Post by freehunter »

paulpauper wrote: post #53
alehul wrote: post #14

Many are suggesting that TikTok would be overvalued at $50B. If that's the case, do you believe FB is overvalued at $662B? Instagram, as of 2018, was estimated to be worth around $100B on its own (with about 1b MAUs, versus TikTok's 800m). TikTok seems at least equally addictive, and its algorithm does a fantastic job at quickly showing good content that matches your interests.

At this point, give how wrong over the past decade pundits have been about Tesla, Uber, Facebook, Shopify, Amazon (and many others), I am inclined to discount/ignore any prediction of a rapidly-growing consumer tech or app company being a bubble. These pundits have a horrible track record of predicting this sort of stuff. A common thread for why these forecasts tend to be so bad is, such pundits ignore the growth of…

A bear would say those pundits have been wrong so far and will eventually be proven right.

Is there any real reason why Tesla should be worth more than the rest of the US auto industry combined? Can Uber ever actually turn enough profit to justify their valuation? At what point does Amazon stop growing and their PE ratio start mattering?

Right now investors seem to believe that these companies have a very bright future ahead of them. Some of these companies have had “a very bright future” for over 20 years now. Some of these companies have very bright futures even though they’re only supported by investors and have never made any money of their own. Uber, for example, lost $8.5b in 2019 and are surely going to lose a ton this year too.

In the long run, how many SV unicorns and traditional companies pretending they’re tech companies will actually prove their valuation was right? A bear would say very few.

Re: ByteDance investors value TikTok at $50B in takeover bid

#150

Post by soulofmischief »

philosopher1234 wrote: post #147
socalnate1 wrote: post #142

Earlier quoted context omitted.

"But this time really is different." Sigh...

Could you explain why you disagree?

You're sampling a 10-year span according to your argument. That's not enough time to ascertain if this is a bubble. I'd hold off on making assertive comments about the trajectory of Silicon Valley for now.
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