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A case for ending lockdown

ryankemper.io

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Re: A case for ending lockdown

#141

Post by danesparza »

dxsh wrote: post #135
katktv wrote: post #123

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I also just have to point out that Sweden, the country that didn't implement lockdown, has 6 times higher amount of COVID-19 cases than other Scandinavian countries when adjusted. https://www.nationalreview.com/corner/coronavirus-fatality-r...

Sweden has much larger nursing homes than, for example, Norway, and most deaths in Sweden are from nursing homes. The time integral of the curve over 1 year will tell the real story.

So are you arguing those numbers are acceptable because of the size of nursing homes in Sweden? Or am I missing something in your 2 sentences?

Re: A case for ending lockdown

#142

Post by StavrosK »

For a peek into the future, Greece has just ended its lockdown and started reopening everything, after having 0-2 deaths per day for a few days. The number of deaths in total is around 120 after two months, last I checked.

The plan was to shut everything down, ramp up testing and ICU beds, then reopen and carefully watch the situation. Let's see how it goes.

Re: A case for ending lockdown

#143

Post by meheleventyone »

ryankemper wrote: post #20
ohlookabird wrote: post #12

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Thanks, will definitely read it, but on a first glance I couldn't see any information on your background or experience in the field of epidemiology or a related science. It would definitely help to put your thoughts into context and if you have a background in this field it would give your collection of thoughts more weight. With all the misinformation going around I resorted to mainly listen to scientists in the rel…

I have no directly relevant credentials whatsoever and don't claim to. (I actually considered saying as such in the writeup but it's already so verbose that I felt it wasn't worth it). I'm just a dude that likes to read research papers. As an aside, there is totally an archetype of the software engineer that thinks they're equipped to dive into unrelated fields, and I definitely match that trope. I will say in my def…

> I have no directly relevant credentials whatsoever and don't claim to.

IMO this should be a disclaimer in bold right at the very top of the article.

Re: A case for ending lockdown

#145

Post by sgt101 »

Well section 2 presents two cherry picked studies that are off the consensus for IFR (0.4%) and so have been latched onto by those who want them to be true and want everyone else to believe them. And then goes on to demonstrate a novel example of simpsons paradox with an italian study. Just junk. Bin it.

Re: A case for ending lockdown

#146

Post by empath75 »

dxsh wrote: post #135
katktv wrote: post #123

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I also just have to point out that Sweden, the country that didn't implement lockdown, has 6 times higher amount of COVID-19 cases than other Scandinavian countries when adjusted. https://www.nationalreview.com/corner/coronavirus-fatality-r...

Sweden has much larger nursing homes than, for example, Norway, and most deaths in Sweden are from nursing homes. The time integral of the curve over 1 year will tell the real story.

Most deaths in most countries are in nursing homes. Do we not care if older people die?

Re: A case for ending lockdown

#147

Post by orborde »

pbourke wrote: post #115
cjhopman wrote: post #57

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Specifically, once the proportion of recovered in the population reaches 1/(1-R_0), there are no longer enough vectors (infectable indviduals) remaining for a serious outbreak to occur. It’s worth noting that this is the same principle that vaccination relies upon; vaccination is just an artificial way to build immunity without having to undergo a full infection. I should learn to never read anything from random pe…

> I should learn to never read anything from random people working in areas they don't have any expertise in. This is one clear lesson that can be drawn from the pandemic.

I don't think so.

Consider that many governments with professional public health departments, including those of the richest countries in the world, downplayed the unfolding disaster, completely blew it on containment as a result, and are now reduced to using _extremely_ expensive lockdown measures to try to buy time until someone can come up with a better idea.

Meanwhile, plenty of randos on the internet did the straightforward epidemiological math in January/February and correctly deduced what was coming.

I think a clearer lesson is that, sometimes, the designated professional experts will fail to outsmart a fairly simple and very well known system of differential equations.

If you find this conclusion terrifying, well, I agree.

Re: A case for ending lockdown

#148

Post by throwaway0a5e »

quezzle wrote: post #144

This should be flagged. Why is a software engineer qualified to present this? Just misinformation spoken with a tone of authority.

>This should be flagged.

>Why is a software engineer qualified to present this?

The opinions of software engineers about subject outside their area of expertise is the bulk of the commentary on this site. I don't think it's realistic to expect a community to enforce a restriction on submissions when such a restriction would hit so close to home. That would require a level of cognitive dissonance that even HN is probably not capable of.

I agree with you that people should STFU about things they are not experts in, or at the very least not present their opinions on such things with some veil of authority.

Re: A case for ending lockdown

#149

Post by icebraining »

danesparza wrote: post #141
dxsh wrote: post #135

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Sweden has much larger nursing homes than, for example, Norway, and most deaths in Sweden are from nursing homes. The time integral of the curve over 1 year will tell the real story.

So are you arguing those numbers are acceptable because of the size of nursing homes in Sweden? Or am I missing something in your 2 sentences?

I think they're saying that Norway would also have the same number of deaths as Sweden if they had the same number of nursing homes.

Re: A case for ending lockdown

#150

Post by quezzle »

throwaway0a5e wrote: post #148
quezzle wrote: post #144

This should be flagged. Why is a software engineer qualified to present this? Just misinformation spoken with a tone of authority.

>This should be flagged. >Why is a software engineer qualified to present this? The opinions of software engineers about subject outside their area of expertise is the bulk of the commentary on this site. I don't think it's realistic to expect a community to enforce a restriction on submissions when such a restriction would hit so close to home. That would require a level of cognitive dissonance that even HN is proba…

One of the big issues in the pandemic is the spread of misinformation.

I don’t think media channels ... and I’m including HN here ... should be giving a megaphone to random opinions. Now it the time for experts voices to be amplified, not random people with an opinion.

I notice in the comments dang supports this post which is a surprise.

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