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The plans to reopen the economy are scary

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Re: The plans to reopen the economy are scary

#141

Post by Hermel »

gumby wrote: post #86
Hermel wrote: post #50

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I wonder whether taking the temperature is enough when combined with social distancing? For that, it would be interesting to know what percentage of people that are infectuous have an elevated temperature. 50% might already be enough, because that means we could cut the infection rate in half just by quarantining everyone with a slight fever.

I don't really understand the point of temperature taking as asymptomatic patients are contagious (sars-cvd-2 is far from alone in this respect). This testing provides a false negative which allows vectors to mix with healthy people -- a false sense of security. You might as well not do it.

Even if you only find half of all infected, it would already help a lot. The infection rate is cut in half if half the infected are immediately quarantined.

Re: The plans to reopen the economy are scary

#143

Post by fuckknows »

elephantscan wrote: post #135

When are we just going to admit that our choices are: 1) indefinite lockdown 2) everyone gets the virus Between a 0.5% chance of dying, and life imprisonment, I'd take my chances.

Here's the thing though, that binary choice is predicated on what we know right now, tomorrow we may know more, and we will definitely know more in a few weeks, in a month or two we may know enough that we have better choices to make. Our ability to treat this virus is very limited right now, but that may not be true in a month, so just throwing up your hands and saying let everyone die now when we don't have good treatment options is basically just signing peoples death warrant for no good reason.

Re: The plans to reopen the economy are scary

#144

Post by shaneprrlt »

mymythisisthis wrote: post #101
jmt_ wrote: post #77

Earlier quoted context omitted.

But isn't there something to be said about the kind of human experiences each of the "outdated" industries you mentioned provide? Namely schools, stores, going to movie theaters with friends, etc. People like seeing and being around other people. Some really, really don't, but most do. Moving the majority of activities indoors forever will have a negative impact on the psyche of the most people. I agree that what mos…

What I see happening. People are indoors and pursing something that they are really interested in. Maybe knitting, trumpet playing, etc. They are connected with new people online who share the same interests as them. In a few months people will be connecting in person with these people. Modernity will do what modernity always does...connect people who have distinct, unique, interests together. As a society I think th…

You really think everybody is enjoying being isolated inside, alone, with no human contact, no mass gatherings like concerts or games?

> As a society I think that we've outgrown the idea of just going to a movie theater and hanging out with friends.

This is an antisocial and unhealthy perspective. We've yet to see the mental health ramifications from this extended period of isolation. We're not built to sit inside by ourselves all day. Even as great as online connections can be, they are no replacement for the real presence of a human being. Saying we've "outgrown" it is preposterous.

Re: The plans to reopen the economy are scary

#145

Post by SpicyLemonZest »

greedo wrote: post #138
elephantscan wrote: post #135

When are we just going to admit that our choices are: 1) indefinite lockdown 2) everyone gets the virus Between a 0.5% chance of dying, and life imprisonment, I'd take my chances.

Because you're leaving out the third choice: control the rate of infection so that the chance of dying is lowered.

In practice this seems to be a subset of the first choice. Everyone who has a proposal to control the rate of infection also says we need to lockdown indefinitely until their proposal is fully implemented.

Re: The plans to reopen the economy are scary

#146

Post by Melting_Harps »

ethanwillis wrote: post #83
mymythisisthis wrote: post #66

Lots of business are converting to delivery. I think this is good. The warehouse style of store, prevalent since the 1960s is an outdated model. Schools are moving more courses online. Another major upgrade. The restaurant experience hasn't been rewarding for a long time. People should learn to cook at home. Experiment with fancier cuts of organic meat. Movie theaters have been terrible for decades. Sticky floors, to…

I think the last point is rooted in some modern ideas about what it costs to develop and deliver an education. Our education system cost (At least in the States) is absurdly overpriced and most of that money is not going to the professors. You don't need to pay people to take biology courses. You need to pay people UBI so that they could choose to take biology courses. Then you only need a (relatively) modest amount…

> You don't need to pay people to take biology courses. You need to pay people UBI so that they could choose to take biology courses. Then you only need a (relatively) modest amount of money to design the course, pay the graders, and deliver the content.

I agree with your sentiment, forcing people into Biology is entirely the wrong approach--I was and I detested my HS level classes, and even most of my lower division classes in University as it was mainly just rote learning--but because I met a Community of students and professionals online when I was still in HS I got to learn what research they were focusing on and it intrigued me enough to go to the BS level, all while attending upper division University lectures in various subjects during my Junior/Senior years of HS.

While I'm a proponent of UBI, I still think a concerted effort is needed to make the Life Sciences appealing to the masses; I personally subscribe to the Biohacker and Community Science approach, and having (wet) lab extensions built into local community libraries would go so much further.

I've been out of the Industry for 8 years now, but I'd gladly volunteer and teach Plant Science and some Molecular biology labs for free if we had UBI and I could offset some living expenses. I know of 3 or so recent biology grads who wish they could do the same.

Re: The plans to reopen the economy are scary

#147

Post by mymythisisthis »

shaneprrlt wrote: post #144
mymythisisthis wrote: post #101

Earlier quoted context omitted.

What I see happening. People are indoors and pursing something that they are really interested in. Maybe knitting, trumpet playing, etc. They are connected with new people online who share the same interests as them. In a few months people will be connecting in person with these people. Modernity will do what modernity always does...connect people who have distinct, unique, interests together. As a society I think th…

You really think everybody is enjoying being isolated inside, alone, with no human contact, no mass gatherings like concerts or games? > As a society I think that we've outgrown the idea of just going to a movie theater and hanging out with friends. This is an antisocial and unhealthy perspective. We've yet to see the mental health ramifications from this extended period of isolation. We're not built to sit inside by…

In some societies people don't have much a say of what they do, who they hang out with, what jobs they do. In a small rural society everybody was/is expected to conform. Modernity lets us hangout with people that we share interests with. This crisis will push that even further. We'll hang out more with people that share our interests, and less just hanging out randomly.

Re: The plans to reopen the economy are scary

#148

Post by greedo »

mymythisisthis wrote: post #66

Lots of business are converting to delivery. I think this is good. The warehouse style of store, prevalent since the 1960s is an outdated model. Schools are moving more courses online. Another major upgrade. The restaurant experience hasn't been rewarding for a long time. People should learn to cook at home. Experiment with fancier cuts of organic meat. Movie theaters have been terrible for decades. Sticky floors, to…

If you think moving school online is a "major upgrade", you're sadly mistaken outside of a few niches. K-5th grade is really difficult to do. It requires a full time parent at home (which is not tenable for many families), and it's hard to have the curriculum be virtualized. This age range requires a lot of literally hands on teaching.

Even older grades have trouble with virtual learning. Plus an important part of school is learning socialization skills. That's pretty hard to do online. Plus teachers will need more than a few weeks to adjust; curriculum development isn't trivial, and teachers would need to be retrained to use the new pedagogy.

As the father of two, and someone who cut his teeth in online learning, it sounds great to say move "more courses online", but the reality is quite different.

Re: The plans to reopen the economy are scary

#149

Post by lisper »

SpicyLemonZest wrote: post #119
lisper wrote: post #106

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> But should I really throw away on year of my life? You don't have to throw it away. There are plenty of productive ways to spend your time. Yes, social isolation is burdensome. But it's damn sight better than being dead.

I just don't agree with the analysis. If I had a choice between a 2% chance of dying and isolation for the rest of my life, I'd roll the dice.

But it's not the rest of your life. It's just until we come up with a treatment or a vaccine, most likely a year or two. Yes, that's an annoyingly long time, but still better than being dead.

Re: The plans to reopen the economy are scary

#150

Post by [deleted] »

SpicyLemonZest wrote: post #98
asdfasgasdgasdg wrote: post #75

Earlier quoted context omitted.

People have been making this argument since before the lock down. But on the contrary to your prediction, the argument has seemed sillier and sillier the more we see the effects of the virus. Things are really freakin bad, and that's with a lockdown. I suspect that all but a very small minority will be able to see the sense in spending serious effort on mitigation for the foreseeable future. Even if people somehow ma…

The argument against a few weeks of lockdown has seemed sillier and sillier. The situation's very bad, and it's worth spending serious effort to mitigate for the foreseeable future. A ban on all social activity for years is far beyond "serious effort to mitigate". Millions of lives isn't worth a global dystopia.

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