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Just own the damn robots

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Re: Just own the damn robots

#141

Post by PhasmaFelis »

richk449 wrote: post #69
anigbrowl wrote: post #22

Why not just seize the means of production? Private (real) property is ultimately rooted in the theft of the commons. This has historically been justified using two assertions: that people don't value what they don't own, and that nobody does anything except for profit. Both are highly questionable, yet when counterexamples are offered they are generally dismissed as 'the exception that proves the rule' or some equal…

> Why not just seize the means of production? I wonder if anyone has tried that before. I guess I will go read a history book and find out.

It's depressing how many people aren't interested in understanding how and why communism failed, and what we can learn from that. The conclusion is always just "capitalism and communism are the only two systems that exist; communism didn't work; therefore capitalism is the best and only way to run things."

Re: Just own the damn robots

#142

Post by gfodor »

It's conditions where most market participants believe future returns are inevitable that often lead to the biggest corrections. Eternal growth of software companies is definitely a great example of "this time it's different", surely one day it will be but the question for the investor today is how confidently they can answer this question.

Re: Just own the damn robots

#143

Post by gcb0 »

sf_rob wrote: post #43
Apocryphon wrote: post #28

"Player Piano" should be required reading for all. It doesn't have to be the future, but it's a future worth examining.

"Manna"[1] as well. While I don't like the writing style, I love the story. Especially since it shows AI gutting middle management in an interesting way before robotics is mature enough to do all the dextrous tasks. 1 http://marshallbrain.com/manna1.htm

only read enough to get the premise. Robot tells fast food employees what to do every second, they like it.

sounds like the summer job version of the original starship troopers short story that started the series. Some teenage joins the army and like because there is always a sargent telling him what to do every second.

Re: Just own the damn robots

#144

Post by aorloff »

Iv wrote: post #106
aorloff wrote: post #102

15 years ago all the software jobs I worked at were retiring clerical workers with software (oh you have 15 people doing spreadsheets ? We can automate that and you won't need them for the same report generation). So this has been going on a lot longer than the article supposes. Yes its true that the sophistication of the automation, and the breadth of its reach (with robots / gig economy) is higher than before, so i…

> but it will also create new jobs managing the automation No, that's bullshit. New jobs will be created that way but far less: there would be no incentive to automation otherwise. This month I visited a warehouse with a team tasked to automate it. If we succeed, phase I should put ~10 people out of job and we don't expect to have to do more than occasional monthly interventions (and that's assuming that we have a hi…

> At this point, there will be a genuine question: why do we need to work to benefit from the goods of these industries?

For the same reason you can't look over to your neighbor's driveway and say, since he doesn't use his truck all day while he's at work, why can't I drive it ?

The people who built those automated industries expended capital, and likely, borrowed against future revenue to do so.

What you are free to do is compete with them. You can drive them into their stupid lender's hands by forcing a collapsing of margins in the industry using your wits.

But nationalizing the factories has, historically, generally led to nasty (the opposite of what your conscious advocates would call desirable) outcomes. And you are saying that a 100% automated factory should be effectively nationalized.

Re: Just own the damn robots

#145

Post by [deleted] »

bufordsharkley wrote: post #113
Waterluvian wrote: post #98

Reads like this are slowly convincing me not to buy into the world of mortgages and debt and to just live the rest of my life paying for everything in cash. I tried to buy a house last year with my wife but the market exploded where I live and suddenly houses were 40% more expensive from last year. So we still rent, which makes me feel incomplete. Like I'm kind of failing my duty of bringing the Canadian Dream to my…

It's no surprise that we're seeing more and more anxiety coalesce around land: this is the classical economic expectation of what would happen as automated output starts to outperform labor, and capital can be automatically produced. When this happens, scarce natural resources (such as location) increase in value. Henry George saw this nearly 140 years ago, with his "Fool's Paradise" thought experiment.[0] As efficie…

[deleted]

Re: Just own the damn robots

#146

Post by knodi123 »

aorloff wrote: post #144
Iv wrote: post #106

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> but it will also create new jobs managing the automation No, that's bullshit. New jobs will be created that way but far less: there would be no incentive to automation otherwise. This month I visited a warehouse with a team tasked to automate it. If we succeed, phase I should put ~10 people out of job and we don't expect to have to do more than occasional monthly interventions (and that's assuming that we have a hi…

> At this point, there will be a genuine question: why do we need to work to benefit from the goods of these industries? For the same reason you can't look over to your neighbor's driveway and say, since he doesn't use his truck all day while he's at work, why can't I drive it ? The people who built those automated industries expended capital, and likely, borrowed against future revenue to do so. What you are free to…

> The people who built those automated industries expended capital, and likely, borrowed against future revenue to do so.

> What you are free to do is compete with them. You can drive them into their stupid lender's hands by forcing a collapsing of margins in the industry using your wits.

So the solution for the hordes of people who were put out of work by automation, is to gamble it all on the bet that they can outcompete powerful, established businesses by operating with far less profit?

Are you really saying "I'm sorry you lost your factory job, but the only moral solutions are a.) let your family starve to death, or b.) every unemployed factory worked just, sorta, becomes an entrepreneur, scrapping with all his former coworkers and bosses over who can survive on the slimmest margins." ?

Nationalizing factories may lead to undesirable outcomes, but your alternative is a different kind of dystopia.

Re: Just own the damn robots

#147

Post by adrianN »

Chathamization wrote: post #86
matthewbauer wrote: post #79

Interesting article but I think the premise that workers are buying tech stocks because they fear automation is incorrect. Gallup found 13% of Americans thought that their jobs would soon be replaced by automation[1]. In fact you usually find more people worried about immigration than automation[2]. Maybe people /should/ be more concerned about automation but they just aren’t right now. [1]: http://news.gallup.com/po…

> Maybe people /should/ be more concerned about automation but they just aren’t right now. Or maybe people should be less concerned about it. The rate of automation/productivity growth has actually been pretty low over the last decade[1], some of the slowest in the past 70 years. [1] https://www.bls.gov/lpc/prodybar.htm

That doesn't mean that the technology hasn't progressed. Cheap labor from countries like China has made it less profitable to invest in automation.

Re: Just own the damn robots

#148

Post by jacobolus »

graeme wrote: post #132
bufordsharkley wrote: post #113

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It's no surprise that we're seeing more and more anxiety coalesce around land: this is the classical economic expectation of what would happen as automated output starts to outperform labor, and capital can be automatically produced. When this happens, scarce natural resources (such as location) increase in value. Henry George saw this nearly 140 years ago, with his "Fool's Paradise" thought experiment.[0] As efficie…

Please don’t encourage the Toronto housing bubble. (Or Vancouver, OP is surely in one of the two) I’m sure Georgianism has its merits, but housing generally hasn’t been a great investment in most of north america, especially once maintenance costs are factored in. Meanwhile, Toronto and Vancouver are in the midst of a speculative housing mania. House prices have far outpaced rents. OP is correct not to buy. (Especial…

If we had land-value taxes plus more permissive zoning, that would add some negative feedback when land prices start rising, and discourage (or tax) speculation and rent-seeking, while encouraging productive land uses like higher-density housing which help to keep cost of living in check.

Re: Just own the damn robots

#149

Post by [deleted] »

ThomPete wrote: post #119
robotresearcher wrote: post #92

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Amazon is, but their customer is themselves. They use 50,000 robots today and that will grow fast. Google doesn't sell robots. I don't know if they use them, apart from a few for research.

Their web spider is a robot. We are far past the time when humans could catalog that much change.

[deleted]

Re: Just own the damn robots

#150

Post by adrianN »

arichard123 wrote: post #21

I just don't buy it. I understand I'm in a minority, so let me indulge myself and explain, for a moment, why I think AI / Robots are nothing to worry about. My claim is: Robots will not replace humans in all jobs. Further, it's more than because of Human preference, I think that Robots will lack cognitive abilities that we have. My expectation is that in each area where they are deficient then they may well become a…

Machines didn't take all the jobs in agriculture either, but they changed the society from >90% of the population working the fields to <10% what we have today. Imagine what would happen if a similar development would affect all kinds of work. Even if structural unemployment is "just" 40% our current social system would be wholly inadequate.
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