Tesla Model 3 Hits Production • Hacker News Board

Re: Tesla Model 3 Hits Production

#141

Post by chronic6a5 » Wed, Jul 05, 2017, 3:12 PM UTC

FussyZeus wrote: post #106

maxsilver wrote: post #98

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Because (personal opinion) the Tesla Model S isn't a particularly great car. Their success is largely in marketing, network, and visual appeal, not in the product itself. If you pick a better (albeit less appealing) electric car, the reliability rate skyrockets. For instance, using your own source -- https://www.truedelta.com/Nissan-LEAF-vs-Tesla-Model-S-relia...

^ This. The Model S has a lot more in common with a mid-high range Mercedes or a low end Ferrari. Anybody who owns an exotic car like that will tell you, you do not buy those for the reliability. It's also worth noting the Model S is, and is marketed to the audience for, a performance car. When you put down that kind of money, you're going to drive it like one. If you drove a Honda like a Ferrari you'd likely break a…

> If you drove a Honda like a Ferrari you'd likely break a whole lot of it's "reliable" parts too.

You really need to stop drinking the Tesla kool-aid. Of course people drive Honda's like Ferraris. And guess what, the Honda's don't break as easily as the Teslas.

Re: Tesla Model 3 Hits Production

#142

Post by feld » Wed, Jul 05, 2017, 3:14 PM UTC

nradov wrote: post #72

stupidcar wrote: post #67

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I'm reminded a little of how the Blackberry board supposedly watched the iPhone announcement and insisted it was fake, as there was "no way" someone could build and profitably sell a phone with that feature-set. Tesla might not do what they're promising. Hell, they probably won't do what they're promising. But pronouncing something impossible on the basis of industry experience can be a dangerous thing. Some things a…

If electric cars are so simple, why is the Tesla Model S so unreliable? https://www.truedelta.com/Tesla-Model-S/reliability-1095 Conversely, the Toyota Prius is one of the most reliable cars. Yet it is mechanically complex with both an internal combustion engine and an electric motor, plus a CVT. So clearly engineering skill and manufacturing quality are bigger factors than the drive train.

My friend put 100,000 miles on his Tesla in a year and was never stranded. He drove 30,000 miles on a known faulty motor.

It's not more unreliable than an ICE vehicle. It's significantly more simple in design and for repair. These claims are FUD.

Re: Tesla Model 3 Hits Production

#143

Post by Tloewald » Wed, Jul 05, 2017, 3:15 PM UTC

cptskippy wrote: post #125

arethuza wrote: post #86

Earlier quoted context omitted.

How unreliable are ICEs these days - maybe its just me, but I've never had an engine problem in nearly 20 years of owning cars. Electrical problems, suspension problems, drainage problems - had all of them but never had a problem with the actual engine.

Maybe it depends on the age of your car and how you drive it? I've had 4 Honda Accords from an 88 up to an 07 that all started exhibiting the same engine problems around the 200k mile mark. Blown head gaskets, burning oil, timing belt issues, etc.

I assume you were replacing the timining belts on schedule. Given the near legendary reliability of the Honda Accord it makes me wonder if there's something about the way you drive.

Even so, 200,000 miles is not too shabby. I don't think we have useful data on electric vehicles with that kind of mileage.

Re: Tesla Model 3 Hits Production

#144

Post by Tloewald » Wed, Jul 05, 2017, 3:17 PM UTC

saturdaysaint wrote: post #123

arethuza wrote: post #119

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I had a Passat a few years back and it had a design flaw where the tray that holds the battery has drain holes that can get blocked and if they do it overflows into the interior of the car. I used to park my car under trees that dropped leaves which blocked the battery compartment drainage holes and as I am in Scotland it can get quite wet. Ended up with car filled with 1" of water.... Interior of car had to be strip…

I'm always tempted to test drive stylish German cars but I swear 90% of the maintenance horror stories I've heard in the last 15 years have involved a German car.

VW in particular has a pretty poor reputation for long term reliability (also see Consumer Reports et al). The stories I hear about American cars, by contrast, tend to be poor reliability soon after purchase (followed by solid long term reliability)

Re: Tesla Model 3 Hits Production

#145

Post by davewritescode » Wed, Jul 05, 2017, 3:23 PM UTC

mikeash wrote: post #128

calafrax wrote: post #115

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I would have more confidence in this announcement if it was not made a day before Tesla announced that they are experiencing falling demand for their existing line and barely hit the bottom of their production forecast. Their initial "hand over" is to employees, not real customers, so it is really just internal testing and does not indicate anything about when actual deliveries will begin. Hitting delivery deadlines…

Those employees are still paying their own personal money for the car. They're as much "real customers" as you or me.

I suspect they're not paying what customers will pay and they're likely to be leases since they're effectively pre-production models and you'd have to be a big knucklehead to bet on the resale value of a pre-production Model 3.

Re: Tesla Model 3 Hits Production

#146

Post by sqeaky » Wed, Jul 05, 2017, 3:29 PM UTC

Munkum wrote: post #71

stupidcar wrote: post #67

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I'm reminded a little of how the Blackberry board supposedly watched the iPhone announcement and insisted it was fake, as there was "no way" someone could build and profitably sell a phone with that feature-set. Tesla might not do what they're promising. Hell, they probably won't do what they're promising. But pronouncing something impossible on the basis of industry experience can be a dangerous thing. Some things a…

The body on an electric car is basically no different to an ICE car. The floor is flatter and thicker to accommodate the battery pack and no need for a tunnel to accommodate the drive train, but other than that they're about the same. Tesla will almost certainly be using a combination of materials on the model 3; mild steels (cheap and cheerful, easy to press), aluminium (lightweight) and boron steels (strong). To jo…

Is it possible that Musk has solved the problem, much like he or his employees have solved countless other tech problems, but Musk also knows what makes a sexy headline. Spot welding is hard to sell as flashy and new. If you can't do it on mars, it might not make good headlines.

Re: Tesla Model 3 Hits Production

#147

Post by csours » Wed, Jul 05, 2017, 3:40 PM UTC

sqeaky wrote: post #146

Munkum wrote: post #71

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The body on an electric car is basically no different to an ICE car. The floor is flatter and thicker to accommodate the battery pack and no need for a tunnel to accommodate the drive train, but other than that they're about the same. Tesla will almost certainly be using a combination of materials on the model 3; mild steels (cheap and cheerful, easy to press), aluminium (lightweight) and boron steels (strong). To jo…

Is it possible that Musk has solved the problem, much like he or his employees have solved countless other tech problems, but Musk also knows what makes a sexy headline. Spot welding is hard to sell as flashy and new. If you can't do it on mars, it might not make good headlines.

Spot welding isn't hard, and wasn't claimed to be hard. Mixed Materials welding and joining is Hard (steel + aluminium/mild steel + high strength steel/ etc).

Re: Tesla Model 3 Hits Production

#148

Post by sqeaky » Wed, Jul 05, 2017, 3:43 PM UTC

feld wrote: post #142

nradov wrote: post #72

Earlier quoted context omitted.

If electric cars are so simple, why is the Tesla Model S so unreliable? https://www.truedelta.com/Tesla-Model-S/reliability-1095 Conversely, the Toyota Prius is one of the most reliable cars. Yet it is mechanically complex with both an internal combustion engine and an electric motor, plus a CVT. So clearly engineering skill and manufacturing quality are bigger factors than the drive train.

My friend put 100,000 miles on his Tesla in a year and was never stranded. He drove 30,000 miles on a known faulty motor. It's not more unreliable than an ICE vehicle. It's significantly more simple in design and for repair. These claims are FUD.

This seems unbelievable. That is 500 charge discharge cycles at 200 miles apiece. Since there are only 365 days in a year This means that your friend was driving more than 270 miles a day meaning he was at 55 mph that is 5 hours a day. This is on the order of a professional trucker once you count weekends.

This also discounts the difficultly of finding well space out chargers. It also discounts the schedule of your friend. This also makes me wonder what time you have left to socialize with your 'friend'.

If you are going to make bold claims some explanation of the detail would go a long way towards making them seem plausible.

Re: Tesla Model 3 Hits Production

#149

Post by mjamesaustin » Wed, Jul 05, 2017, 3:48 PM UTC

davewritescode wrote: post #145

mikeash wrote: post #128

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Those employees are still paying their own personal money for the car. They're as much "real customers" as you or me.

I suspect they're not paying what customers will pay and they're likely to be leases since they're effectively pre-production models and you'd have to be a big knucklehead to bet on the resale value of a pre-production Model 3.

Tesla offers zero employee discounts on their cars. Even Musk pays full price, on principle.

https://www.quora.com/Do-Tesla-employees-get-a-discount-on-T...

Re: Tesla Model 3 Hits Production

#150

Post by sqeaky » Wed, Jul 05, 2017, 3:49 PM UTC

baq wrote: post #100

brianwawok wrote: post #94

Earlier quoted context omitted.

So these all sound like very true and good things. No reason to doubt there is a reason current big auto does it the way they do. On the other hand, Musk hasn't been one to just say stuff and totally fail. By and large he is getting what he says he is getting, and on a close to reasonable time frame. If we stuck to what big auto said, there would be no autopilot, and EVs would still be a toy with a tiny range. I have…

> and on a close to reasonable time frame woah, let's not get ahead of ourselves here. when elon says years, it's martian years as the meme goes, and not without reason. he's getting a better at estimation but is still an extreme optimist.

But Musk's numbers are much lower than everyone else's and he usually some percentage late, Not decades. Sometimes he is even on time.

He does things that many claim are literally impossible, who cares if they come 10% later and that is 3 months. If Telsa hits the production numbers by June they are still doing something that GM and Ford once said was decades in the future.