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Americans Are Putting Billions More Than Usual in Their 401(k)s

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Re: Americans Are Putting Billions More Than Usual in Their 401(k)s

#142
post #109

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I'm not sure if "crash" is the problem. Crashes happen in markets, it's part of the business cycle. OP is discussing a 30+ year time horizon, though. I can think of a few potential things that would precipitate not just a crash, but a long-term economic malaise: - Climate change - Political/social unrest (extrapolate Brexit, Trump, etc) - Mass unemployment caused by automation (you can't "retrain" 5MM 50yo truck driv…

> OP is discussing a 30+ year time horizon, though. I can think of a few potential things that would precipitate not just a crash, but a long-term economic malaise ... > Climate change The climate change consequences big enough to cause a long-term economic malaise are far enough out to not affect most of today's workers. We'll mostly just get things that cause short term disruption, like more large storms, more weat…

> The climate change consequences big enough to cause a long-term economic malaise are far enough out to not affect most of today's workers.

Source?

Re: Americans Are Putting Billions More Than Usual in Their 401(k)s

#143
post #14

Earlier quoted context omitted.

S&P 500 is up 20% in 2016... not sure what you're talking about.

S&P 500 gained approx 9.5% in 2016

Ah you're right, I went in a bit later than the start of the year, looks like it took a dive a bit and then went back up. So I'm up ~20% following the S&P500, just not for the full calendar year.

Re: Americans Are Putting Billions More Than Usual in Their 401(k)s

#144
post #116
post #95

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Note that Reagan increased the SS tax in order to pad the fund and prepare for Boomers retiring. That surplus of the last 30 years is invested in special government bonds gauranteed with the "full faith and credit" of the US government.

Who is going to be paying the taxes needed to pay off those bonds?

Ideally the same people whose taxes Reagan lowered https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/8/8c/Historic...

Re: Americans Are Putting Billions More Than Usual in Their 401(k)s

#145

Anyone else around here that does not have a pension account? On the basis that technology will have changed the economic system (for good or worse) in such fundamental ways so we either have greatly expanded life span, "free" handouts such as basic income, or major financial busts that have wiped out most pension savers.

I would ask the inverse: anyone around here have a pension account?

When I joined my current company I was given an option to join the pension (maybe the last year it was offered to new people??). I didn't take it for a couple reasons:

  1. figured I probably wouldn't be here for 30 years (!!!!)

  2. Stories of rampant pension mismanagement scare me off. (Reasonably sure it wouldn't happen with my employer, but...)

Re: Americans Are Putting Billions More Than Usual in Their 401(k)s

#146

Earlier quoted context omitted.

You think the stock market will be around when you are old enough to need your 401k? I max my contributions but I have no faith they won't be wiped out in some future crash.

You buy shares in the stock market, not dollars, so a crash shouldn't hamper your ability to retire, unless you want to retire during the crash itself (although diversity of assets would help with this). The stock market recovered years ago from the Great Depression and is doing really well again.

it took 30 years for people's stocks to recover that bought them right before the great depression.

Re: Americans Are Putting Billions More Than Usual in Their 401(k)s

#147
post #118

Earlier quoted context omitted.

SS is not a money transfer from today's young to tomorrow's old--it's a transfer from today's young to today's old. Don't think of it as "savings" you're "contributing" toward.

Isn't this similar to investments or savings where you put in money expecting to receive something in the future? That money isn't static, it's actively being used in other ways. For example, money I deposit in my bank account today is going out into loans the bank is issuing today. I'm not taking a position on Social Security, just wondering if the analogy does much useful work.

No; investments go toward productive work to create economic value. Social Security doesn't have any element that would actually create wealth. It works exactly like a Ponzi scheme.

Re: Americans Are Putting Billions More Than Usual in Their 401(k)s

#148
It's interesting when the 401k was introduced it was meant to be one leg in a "three-legged stool" for retirement planning.

Those three legs consisting of pension, social security and savings when it was introduced.

For people in the private sector that is now a two-legged stool as pensions went the way of the evening news paper and indemnity health care plans.

Its interesting to note that law makers in Washington DC all have pensions and indemnity health care plans. Only the best for them. I've often wondered at how different things would be if they were subject to the same health care and retirement options as the rest of the population.

http://www.investopedia.com/ask/answers/09/three-legged-stoo...

http://financialanswers.com/page.php?b=24549975-0&c=1027

Re: Americans Are Putting Billions More Than Usual in Their 401(k)s

#149
post #25

Earlier quoted context omitted.

They'd qualify but I'm pretty sure when the law was first written it didn't have them in mind. It was specifically to prevent top level executives or business owners (>=5% of company) from creating 401k plans for only themselves.

> They'd qualify but I'm pretty sure when the law was first written it didn't have them in mind. It was specifically to prevent top level executives or business owners (>=5% of company) from creating 401k plans for only themselves. Even if that was the rhetoric used when creating the rule, I'd be very skeptical of assuming that was the case, rather than it being motivated by a desire to increase tax revenue, as a lot…

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Re: Americans Are Putting Billions More Than Usual in Their 401(k)s

#150
post #122

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Trump easily won the popular vote for the 48 states that aren't California and New York. Popular vote indeed. There's a very good reason the electoral college exists.

And if you take out a couple states, Clinton won the electoral college. What's your point? That we should ignore the votes of two of the largest states because they don't agree with you?

> That we should ignore the votes of two of the largest states because they don't agree with you?

Ahh, yeah. That's the point. So America isn't CaliforNewYork.

The electoral college isn't a scam, it exists to bring balance, so your hipster javascript developer gets the same weight as a coal miner in rural Ohio.

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