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One-third of SF Bay Area residents hope to leave soon, poll finds

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Re: One-third of SF Bay Area residents hope to leave soon, poll finds

#141

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Good mass transit increases demand for housing in its coverage area, increasing prices.

But it doesn't have to increase prices to the point of unaffordability, does it?

Every piece of real estate that sells/rents is affordable to someone.

Re: One-third of SF Bay Area residents hope to leave soon, poll finds

#142
post #119
post #82

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I'm going to clarify that I'm not picking on you, but I loathe this attitude. I see it in Denver constantly. I moved here, but now we're full up. Ironically, it mostly comes from people that are transplants themselves. It's rather elitist to tell people where they can and can't live especially with the "forget you, I got mine" dynamic going on from the transplants themselves.

Denver has so many wonderful things, but this undercurrent of "I hate all the new people" is so gross. I've encountered it in situations where I'm literally handing money over to someone who is bitching about people moving here.

Let me guess; you are one of those new people and are resentful that people you are freeloading and mooching off of are resentful that you are destroying the community and society they built over time.

Its the same thing in Austin, even though Austin has really be fully deconstructed at this point and it is nothing like the nice place it once was. It's become ever more exclusive, ever more restricted, ever more douchy and pretentious, ever more expensive, ever more packed with people that are trampling everything.

What's actually disgusting is people like you who are incapable of understanding why people would rightfully be resentful about freeloaders and moochers trampling and disrespecting things they created and have a bond to. It's easy being a freeloader and moocher, but it really does undercut any incentive to create anything.

I suspect that in the future we will see examples of restrictive legislation or policies that will rightfully penalize newcomers and mooching types that started swarming to the next version of Austin due to the internet brigading effect.

Re: One-third of SF Bay Area residents hope to leave soon, poll finds

#143
post #96
post #5

I'm sure the fact that there's an increasing trend of empty Chinese investment properties isn't helping. I grew up in Cupertino, and when I visit my parents there, I'm rather shocked at how downhill the neighborhood has gone in parts. It's crazy that these old 70's tract homes go for 1.5 million. Even more insane is that they're bought and then left empty to go downhill. Literally broken windows and paint falling off…

> Until the South Bay gets serious about mass transit, merely adding more housing is only going to make the traffic pain worse. This seems very chicken-and-egg. SF has a million dollars in its annual budget tied up in maintaining the status quo for homelessness -- if those people had homes, that money could get redirected into mass transit.

> SF has a million dollars in its annual budget...

A million? If only. Try $241M

http://www.sfchronicle.com/bayarea/article/S-F-spends-record...

Re: One-third of SF Bay Area residents hope to leave soon, poll finds

#144
post #5

I'm sure the fact that there's an increasing trend of empty Chinese investment properties isn't helping. I grew up in Cupertino, and when I visit my parents there, I'm rather shocked at how downhill the neighborhood has gone in parts. It's crazy that these old 70's tract homes go for 1.5 million. Even more insane is that they're bought and then left empty to go downhill. Literally broken windows and paint falling off…

>empty Chinese investment properties

It's like this all over North America. Not just the west coast.

I lived in a chinese-built condominium in Toronto a few years ago, and the rumor was that 50% or more of the building's units were owned by absentee landlords.

Which made sense, because almost the entire building was seemingly vacant.

Hardly any lights on at night. No furniture on most of the balconies. Never had to wait for an elevator (at 30+ floors, that is strange). Always ample visitor parking spots when there was only 15 of them shared between ~300 units. And I knew most of the neighbors on my floor, would see them come and go regularly, but there were always a few apartments that just never made any noise.

Re: One-third of SF Bay Area residents hope to leave soon, poll finds

#145
post #31
post #8

Makes sense. I wrote a piece called "Do millennials have a future in Seattle? Do millennials have a future in any superstar cities?" ( http://jakeseliger.com/2015/09/24/do-millennials-have-a-futu... ) that focuses on Seattle, but the problems in SF are even worse. We're seeing decades of parochial land use policies turn into affordability crises in SF and similar cities. Which is why so many people are moving to Texa…

You can have good mass transit or affordable housing, but not both. This sucks.

With self-driving cars on the horizon [hopefully!?], this will hopefully become false. [ie everywhere that currently has shitty mass transit will get a system with no single point of failure which is hopefully cheap]

Who knows, though?

Re: One-third of SF Bay Area residents hope to leave soon, poll finds

#146
post #68

Earlier quoted context omitted.

What would make it a less interesting investment is if there were a credible threat to add enough supply to devalue it. That's generally how markets keep prices regulated: if they go up enough, more people jump in to producing the good. That mechanism is severely broken in the Bay Area, among other popular places in the US.

Or we could tax foreign investment properties at a higher rate. "Remove barriers and let the market work" isn't the only solution to any given problem.

I'm definitely not a "markets fix all the world's problems" kind of guy. Far from it. But in this case I think it's a big part of the answer, and I'm not alone in that thinking either. This book was particularly good, although a bit high level: http://amzn.to/1rOgoq3 - and it's also noteworthy because the author, like myself, is somewhat left of center in terms of US politics.

Re: One-third of SF Bay Area residents hope to leave soon, poll finds

#147

Earlier quoted context omitted.

We made a pact with the devil when as a society we decided to believe that our primary homes would also double as investment vehicles that will appreciate in value and help us fund our retirement.

Except no one decided that - it falls naturally out of the facts that homes are expensive (and therefore represent a large chunk of the wealth of most people) and that homes do not depreciate very much as a result of people living in them.

> homes do not depreciate very much as a result of people living in them.

I get what you are saying, but this part above isn't a "natural order of things". For example, homes in Japan are expensive (perhaps representing an even larger fraction of lifetime earnings than in the Statse) yet they depreciate like they are cars.

Re: One-third of SF Bay Area residents hope to leave soon, poll finds

#148
post #114
post #68

Earlier quoted context omitted.

What would make it a less interesting investment is if there were a credible threat to add enough supply to devalue it. That's generally how markets keep prices regulated: if they go up enough, more people jump in to producing the good. That mechanism is severely broken in the Bay Area, among other popular places in the US.

Alternatively, repealing Prop 13, so that property taxes rise with the value. Or increasing property taxes as you get more homes. Both of these would decrease housing prices significantly.

Taxing vacant real estate is another tool used in some countries and cities. One way of doing it is via an imputed rental income: if a property is not owner-occupied, then the owners are deemed to be earning a rental income (either market rate, or if rent-controlled, then whatever the set rate is), regardless of whether they actually bother to rent it out or not. That increases the cost of sitting on empty housing.

(Though the real motivation for an imputed-rental-income law is usually to combat tax fraud: people who're renting out apartments under the table and not reporting the income. It just has the secondary effect of making it more expensive to sit on vacant real estate.)

Re: One-third of SF Bay Area residents hope to leave soon, poll finds

#149
post #5

I'm sure the fact that there's an increasing trend of empty Chinese investment properties isn't helping. I grew up in Cupertino, and when I visit my parents there, I'm rather shocked at how downhill the neighborhood has gone in parts. It's crazy that these old 70's tract homes go for 1.5 million. Even more insane is that they're bought and then left empty to go downhill. Literally broken windows and paint falling off…

> "I'm sure the fact that there's an increasing trend of empty Chinese investment properties isn't helping." This. This. This. A couple of years ago, I found myself utterly shocked by the price of homes in San Francisco. In a fit of frustration, I fired off a few emails a few random real estate firms in SF, asking one simple question: "Who the BLEEP can afford these homes?" You see, I was frustrated. I have a great j…

The final slap in the face is that the investment is guarded from rising property taxes by Prop 13.

Re: One-third of SF Bay Area residents hope to leave soon, poll finds

#150

Among the people who voted, this is the number for Taxable household income for 2016 More than $150,000 16% Prefer not to respond 11% Rest of the % are all under $150,000. Good senior engineer/product people make way more than that. I don't think any of those people are leaving. They are the critical-mass who will make/break good technical companies and power the innovation cycle. SV is in no trouble. There is no rea…

I admit this comment might be insensitive and will probably ruffle the feathers of many but I was purely thinking from the point of view of economic impact and who drive(s) the innovation engine here. VCs, People who made it in tech, hungry (for success) people who want to make it in tech, and senior product and engineering people who can build solid products (not charlatans or imposters) have no reason to leave SV. They are all doing well money wise except probably hungry ones who are motivated to make a lot of impact or money or both.

I am interested to hear what other people have to say about this.

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