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July 2015 was warmest month ever recorded

ncdc.noaa.gov

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Re: July 2015 was warmest month ever recorded

#141

Post by jeromeflipo »

scarmig wrote: post #103
mturmon wrote: post #65

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Here is a proof of your concept. The Climate Corporation ( https://www.climate.com ) is a SF based company founded in 2006 by two ex-Googlers. Its purpose is to help agriculture adapt to climate change. It was acquired by Monsanto in 2013 for $1.1B. [ETA: I had a feeling you knew this, and indeed while I was writing, you captured this info below as well. Hope your project is going well.]

Another proof of concept: Opower ( http://opower.com/careers ) is a DC- and SF-based company. It uses behavioral science to drive increases in energy efficiency among consumers, a competency it sells to utilities who use it to meet government EE regulations.

This is mainly marketing, to help utilities improve their reputation (according to Opower's employees I've met this year).

Re: July 2015 was warmest month ever recorded

#142

Post by logfromblammo »

sanderjd wrote: post #87
jedberg wrote: post #37

Has anyone else noticed that the conservative rhetoric has quietly switched from "global warming doesn't exist so we don't have to do anything" to "global warming isn't caused by people so there is nothing we can do"?

I've always found it incredibly frustrating that both sides focus so much on "is it caused by people". It makes things personal, it sounds to many people like an accusation – " you're ruining the world just by living your life" – which (understandably!) makes people defensive, and it's completely beside the point. There are only two relevant questions: 1. Is it happening? and 2. What can we do right now to fix it? Th…

The question I would like answered is "What is the optimal mean surface temperature of the Earth?"

It's hard for me to get all worked up over climate change when no one can tell me whether the observations indicate a trend towards or away from an overall improvement. It's easy to show that things are changing. It's slightly more difficult to show that such changes are resulting from human activity. But no one seems to know whether things are accidentally getting better or accidentally getting worse.

How would anyone know what to "fix" if they can't even identify what is broken? It's like everyone is engaged in an archery contest, and the location of the bulls-eye is revealed only after everyone shoots. You can't correct your aim if you don't know what you're shooting at.

Re: July 2015 was warmest month ever recorded

#143

Post by andyl »

patrickaljord wrote: post #109
jedberg wrote: post #37

Has anyone else noticed that the conservative rhetoric has quietly switched from "global warming doesn't exist so we don't have to do anything" to "global warming isn't caused by people so there is nothing we can do"?

I don't think it's called global warming anymore, it's called climate change. Besides, I don't understand why it's ok for liberals to make fun of conservatives using "extreme snow" during winter as an argument against climate change but that liberals using exceptional heat during summer as an argument for climate change is ok. A few months of extra cold or heat is not enough to prove or disprove climate change. Last…

I'm conservative. I want to heavily tax fossil and subsidize renewable, storage, thorium. Carbon tax now.

Re: July 2015 was warmest month ever recorded

#144

Post by downandout »

patrickaljord wrote: post #109
jedberg wrote: post #37

Has anyone else noticed that the conservative rhetoric has quietly switched from "global warming doesn't exist so we don't have to do anything" to "global warming isn't caused by people so there is nothing we can do"?

I don't think it's called global warming anymore, it's called climate change. Besides, I don't understand why it's ok for liberals to make fun of conservatives using "extreme snow" during winter as an argument against climate change but that liberals using exceptional heat during summer as an argument for climate change is ok. A few months of extra cold or heat is not enough to prove or disprove climate change. Last…

> I don't think it's called global warming anymore, it's called climate change.

Global warming and climate change are one in the same. "Global warming" became the rallying cry for so many environmentalist quacks citing bunk science - people like Al Gore were universally skewered in the mainstream media - that it was toxic from a PR perspective. So they came up with a new term. "Climate change" has the exact same beliefs, political backers, scientists, corporate interests, and studies behind it as "global warming". It's just a new name.

> I think we should start focusing on real solutions.

The issue is that there is no scientific evidence that solutions are possible. The earth has gone through many dramatic "climate change/global warming" events, and these last occurred long before cars or other man-made pollutants existed. It will go through them again, regardless of how many carbon taxes are levied by liberals or Tesla's are sold. It's just a reality - mankind will eventually cease to exist on this planet regardless of what it does or does not do.

Re: July 2015 was warmest month ever recorded

#145

Post by melling »

jnbiche wrote: post #131
melling wrote: post #93

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Yeah, your comment about weather is an FAQ. I started a little blog FAQ a few weeks ago so I wouldn't have to repeatedly answer the same questions. https://2cco2.wordpress.com/2015/08/04/the-difference-betwee...

Well, you didn't answer it in your blog, either. You simply posted link to a video that many HNers will not even click on, given our well-known preference for text presentations and the fact that many of us browse from work locations where video playing is not appreciated (even if the presenter in the video happens to be a pretty cool guy in this case). I'd recommend at least writing a brief summary to the video if y…

Just watch Neil deGrasse Tyson walk the dog while explaining it. I can't really do it any better than him.

Re: July 2015 was warmest month ever recorded

#146

Post by inversionOf »

mikeash wrote: post #140
inversionOf wrote: post #136

Earlier quoted context omitted.

This new record high for the month beat the previous record from 17 years ago , to begin. Do you really think you want to understand? Again, the irrational histrionics of so many to this discussion (such as the conflation of billions of years with a period of time that is a tiny, tiny sliver of human history, much less periods of the Earth). It is impossible to discuss nuances without the predictable, boorish stompin…

I don't understand what the fact that the previous record was 17 years prior has to do with my response, or your response to my response. You're right, the discussion is mostly awful. Climate change has been turned into a political issue, and awful discussion is a predictable result of that. On the other hand, I don't see how your comment improves that any.

Conflating six heads in a row with a periodic new record is unproductive. For any given area of the country we generally have several record highs per year, and record lows per year, and have every single year since 1880. That's the nature of having a very small period of records.

People acting outraged about a simple statement of fact like "since 1880", or the notional, obvious statement that a sporadic high or low is, by itself, not compelling, diminishes everyone.

Re: July 2015 was warmest month ever recorded

#147

Post by jrs235 »

criley2 wrote: post #119
rnovak wrote: post #41

Earlier quoted context omitted.

To be honest, and this is my opinion only, but 2-3 day forcasts, at least in my area, are horribly inaccurate . In my state, it's a common joke that being a meteorologist is the only job you can have where you can be wrong 95% of the time, and still keep your job. Seriously, our forecasts are nearly always wrong. So.....saying we can make as accurate of forecasts for 200 years ago...that's not really saying much. Thi…

>To be honest, and this is my opinion only, but 2-3 day forcasts, at least in my area, are horribly inaccurate. In my state, it's a common joke that being a meteorologist is the only job you can have where you can be wrong 95% of the time, and still keep your job. Meteorologists lower the quality of the data they receive. People don't want bad news. People don't want to hear that it's going to rain on their weekend.…

> People don't want bad news ... People won't tune in to hear constant bad news.

Where do you live? Every time I turn on the news its 90+% FUD.

Re: July 2015 was warmest month ever recorded

#148

Post by OniBait »

verandaguy wrote: post #5
bnolsen wrote: post #2

sure. more than half the data used in their models is fake made up numbers. Can't trust anything noaa has to say. using non made up temperature data shows we're actually very slightly cooling.

What's your source on this? As someone who doesn't normally follow these kinds of reports, does NOAA have a history of falsifying data? Further, what's your source on your last statement, that global temperatures are dropping?

I suspect it is from Tony Heller (aka Stephen Goddard). Looks like he has a blog post about it here [1]. (note: Heller is nuts so it is hard to take what he says at face value, but it would appear he has a valid point on all the temperature adjustments going on).

The NOAA does adjust the data (and continues to do so) based on various factors like time of observation (TOBS), urban heat island effect (UHI). As well as infilling data when a station drops or they don't have the coverage.

As for the global temp dropping. That is most likely based on the satellite data showing a slight decrease (the hiatus).

[1] https://stevengoddard.wordpress.com/2015/08/17/the-majority-...

Re: July 2015 was warmest month ever recorded

#149

Post by logfromblammo »

mikeash wrote: post #114
jellicle wrote: post #107

Earlier quoted context omitted.

And don't forget "global warming is inevitable now, so there's nothing we can do". In my experience a good Fox News segment can use all three of these, at the same time, and switch back and forth among them, with no cognitive dissonance apparent. I don't think any of them are really being phased out, it's just that if any particular one is defeated in conversation, the arguer switches to one of the other arguments. E…

It has been that way for a very long time now. The right-wing angle on the debate has always included: - It's not happening. - It's happening but it's natural. - It's happening and might be man-made, but it's beneficial. - It's happening and might be man-made, and it's harmful, but it's not worth the cost to mitigate. - It's happening and might be man-made, and it's harmful, and free-market solutions will solve it. A…

There are four dimensions there: happening/not, natural/anthropogenic, beneficial/harmful, and the relative economic impact of intentional terraforming efforts.

Of those four, only the last two are worth debating, and they're really almost the same thing. Everyone who screams about those first two dimensions are probably profiting more by perpetuating a meaningless conversation than by solving an identifiable problem.

Sounds like a lot of political issues, actually. Some people can make a curiously prosperous living just out of getting other people to shout at each other.

Re: July 2015 was warmest month ever recorded

#150

Post by scarmig »

twoodfin wrote: post #134
scarmig wrote: post #51

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Temperature measurement is a hard problem, hard enough you could write a PhD on it. Asking questions about methods etc. is entirely acceptable. The issue is when people refuse to recognize that thousands of scientists have made this their career, and thousands of PhDs actually have been written on temperatures past and present, and think that talking heads on Fox News reciting memos paid for by fossil fuel companies…

think that talking heads on Fox News reciting memos paid for by fossil fuel companies contain even the semblance of a real critique. When did this happen?

Pretty much any time Fox News talks about climate change temperatures?

http://www.politifact.com/punditfact/statements/2015/feb/13/...

  "They're (the White House) actually kind of lucky that we don't cover climate change as much as we should," Perino said.

  "Because yesterday, it was reported that the temperature readings have been fabricated and it's all blowing up in their faces."

  Co-host Kimberly Guilfoyle interjected that it was "fraud science" and Perino said, "Yes, I agree."
That took me less than 10 seconds to Google.
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