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California leaders report four to six weeks worth of gasoline and diesel supply

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Re: California leaders report four to six weeks worth of gasoline and diesel supply

#131

Post by jshen »

GenerWork wrote: post #106
annoyingnoob wrote: post #98

Earlier quoted context omitted.

We could die chocking on the air that produces too. Understand the history in CA and the reasons we have special gas. Would you really want to hurt children for cheaper gas? Really? https://today.usc.edu/las-environmental-success-story-cleane...

Those rules around special gasoline were made when both federal and California car exhaust regulations were much looser than today, and electric cars were a complete pipe dream. I've seen estimates ranging for savings from $.25 to $1 per gallon if California dropped the requirements. >Would you really want to hurt children for cheaper gas? Nice appeal to emotion.

You didn't really address his main point. Will this lead to higher levels of pollution that will have real health consequences? Oddly you suggest it's not valid to raise concerns around health consequences.

Re: California leaders report four to six weeks worth of gasoline and diesel supply

#132

Post by johnvanommen »

daedrdev wrote: post #36
rconti wrote: post #31

I'm a bit perplexed on this one-- Yes, we refine our own blend of gasoline, but it's based on market oil -- nothing about the war we started with Iran impacts our domestic refining capability. Also, oil takes longer to get from Iran to the west coast than to the east coast. Shouldn't the east coast be the first to notice decreased shipments, because the west coast essentially has a stock still in transit for longer?…

CA’s requirement that it gets its own blend of gas is combined with how its openly hostile towards its ever decreasing refineries and that it is impossible for a new refinery to ever open makes it’s supplies absurdly limited

> CA’s requirement that it gets its own blend of gas is combined with how its openly hostile towards its ever decreasing refineries and that it is impossible for a new refinery to ever open makes it’s supplies absurdly limited

A big one is a lack of pipelines.

As I understand it, California sits on so much oil, nobody has built a pipeline.

Building an energy pipeline in California is like bringing sand to the beach. The energy is already there.

Re: California leaders report four to six weeks worth of gasoline and diesel supply

#133

Post by com2kid »

dylan604 wrote: post #115
com2kid wrote: post #55

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Bicycle doesn't carry a family of 4, or carry loads of dirt or pick up lumber or tow a trailer. Also my e-bike needs more maintenance than my EV. Go figure.

I was very pleasantly surprised at how much my single cargo e-bike can handle. It is big, nearly the size of a tandem bike, but it served me well for 5 years of not having a car. Curious about your maintenance needs. I have a guy that comes out once a year for service and tunes it up for me. After 3 years, I replaced the chain. I've upgraded to hydraulic brakes by the same guy. Other than that, it's been smooth ridin…

I haven't had to do any work on my EV in the 2 years I've had it.

I'm due for a cabin air filter change in another couple years.

So yes the bike is costing me more in maintenance! It is hard to compete with 0.

Re: California leaders report four to six weeks worth of gasoline and diesel supply

#134

Post by JumpCrisscross »

linksnapzz wrote: post #16
JumpCrisscross wrote: post #10

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> California leaders have done everything they possibly can to chase refiners out of state The refiners are running out of crude. Having more refiners wouldn’t solve the problem.

There's plenty of crude oil in CA. Certainly enough for California's needs, in fact.

> There's plenty of crude oil in CA. Certainly enough for California's needs

California has 1.7 billion barrels of proven reserves [1] and imports 373 million barrels a year [2]. That's 5 years of imports in the ground. (At current rates, California depletes its proven reserves in 2040.)

[1] https://www.eia.gov/dnav/pet/hist/LeafHandler.ashx?n=PET&s=R...

[2] https://www.energy.ca.gov/data-reports/energy-almanac/califo...

Re: California leaders report four to six weeks worth of gasoline and diesel supply

#135

Post by johnvanommen »

ceejayoz wrote: post #54
doug_durham wrote: post #47

Earlier quoted context omitted.

People in LA need to breathe during the summer time. So yes we demand a blend that protects our residents. And the refiners are choosing to close refineries. They are not being compelled.

Yeah, I remember flying into LAX in the late 80s and early 90s. Smog so thick it looked like a physical obstacle. Whatever they're doing seems to be working nicely.

Car emissions are far lower now. I lived in CA when the air was grey in July.

That ended a long time ago. A modern Honda generates something like 1% as much pollution as a car from the eighties.

Re: California leaders report four to six weeks worth of gasoline and diesel supply

#136

Post by JumpCrisscross »

pear01 wrote: post #53
tpurves wrote: post #45

What this article fails to mention is that there are also a record number of empty tankers routed to the US refineries right now, with the intention of shifting still-relatively cheap US oil products to overseas markets where the prices are already much higher and shortages have already hit. The effects of the Iran war on the US economy will really start to kick in over the next several months.

In such a situation - especially heading into the midterms - an export ban may be increasingly probable.

> an export ban may be increasingly probable

"U.S. crude oil and lease condensate proved reserves decreased 1% from 46.4 billion barrels to 46.0 billion barrels at year-end 2024" [1]. At February's 180 million barrel/month import rate, that's only 21 years of supply in the ground.

Reliance on oil, for America, is a long-term reliance on foreign oil.

[1] https://www.eia.gov/naturalgas/crudeoilreserves/

[2] https://www.eia.gov/dnav/pet/hist/LeafHandler.ashx?n=PET&s=M...

Re: California leaders report four to six weeks worth of gasoline and diesel supply

#137

Post by shadow28 »

throw03172019 wrote: post #76
kyrra wrote: post #64

Earlier quoted context omitted.

California also needs a special blend that is only required in California (CARBOB). A lot of that is refined outside of the US, because there is not the capacity domestically. Cali could immediately have more fuel and cheaper prices by dropping their special requirements.

Is this an emissions reducing based blend?

Yep, it's a low sulfur, lower volatility gasoline blend (https://thebreakthrough.org/issues/energy/how-california-reg...) which apparently cuts harmful exhaust emissions like carbon monoxide and NOx.

Re: California leaders report four to six weeks worth of gasoline and diesel supply

#138

Post by jandrewrogers »

mjhay wrote: post #68
pear01 wrote: post #53

Earlier quoted context omitted.

In such a situation - especially heading into the midterms - an export ban may be increasingly probable.

An export ban wouldn’t really help much: US oil production is (now) predominantly light crude, while US refinery capacity is oriented towards heavy crude from the gulf or Venezuela. We produce more oil than we use, but we can’t refine it all.

Refining light crude is essentially the same process as heavy crude with fewer steps. US refineries are designed to handle virtually any kind of crude and are highly configurable. That flexibility is part of what makes their refinery business so successful. US refinery capacity is ~50% larger than their domestic oil production; it is a major export business for the US.

The real cost to not processing heavy crude oil is that many refinery assets will be sitting idle because they aren't needed to process light crude.

Re: California leaders report four to six weeks worth of gasoline and diesel supply

#139

Post by flumpmaster »

colechristensen wrote: post #97
kyrra wrote: post #64

Earlier quoted context omitted.

California also needs a special blend that is only required in California (CARBOB). A lot of that is refined outside of the US, because there is not the capacity domestically. Cali could immediately have more fuel and cheaper prices by dropping their special requirements.

Does this have anything to do with the extensive and happening now or very recent shutdowns of several california refineries?

Yes. Between 2020 and present The refining capacity in California declined by 35% from 1.9 MM BPD to 1.2 MM BPD with the closure of 4 refineries:

Marathon Martinez (2020) converted to renewables. Crude capacity 157 MBD, Renewables capacity 48 MBD

P66 Rodeo (2022) converted to renewables. Crude capacity 120 MBD, Renewables capacity 50 MBD

P66 LA (2025) shutdown. Crude capacity 139 MBD

Valero Bencia (2026) shutdown. Crude capacity 145 MBD

The California Air Resource Board (CARB) has promulgated a revised Cap and Invest rule that threatens the viability of the remaining refineries. All the remaining California refineries have sent CARB, the Governor and the CA legislature letters pointing this out.

California is now a net importer of gasoline following these refinery closures.

Re: California leaders report four to six weeks worth of gasoline and diesel supply

#140

Post by traderj0e »

neaden wrote: post #28
iqihs wrote: post #5

the entire economy of California being dependent on how Iran is feeling on a given day is crazy work

Who do you think started the current war?

This is oversimplifying war. Whoever struck first isn't necessarily the one who created the conflict.
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