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OpenAI's fall from grace as investors race to Anthropic

latimes.com

131–140 of 161 posts

Re: OpenAI's fall from grace as investors race to Anthropic

#131
post #75

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Aside from the fabricated drama and the trend chasing, OpenAI still has the best overall model and API service. Anthropic is really good, no doubt. But gpt-5.4 is a better model than even Opus, even if its a marginal advantage. I use both.

The advantage is marginal and sporadic, and its slower. Why would I use it over anthropic?

It’s much cheaper, for starters.

Re: OpenAI's fall from grace as investors race to Anthropic

#132
post #2

tl;dr nobody wants OpenAI shares and the secondary market has completely dried up. “We literally couldn’t find anyone in our pool of hundreds of institutional investors to take these shares“ This doesn’t bode well for an IPO. The market is smelling a stinker. Get your popcorn ready for a mad scramble to salvage investments if indeed the shark has been jumped.

Nah you see, the NASDAQ is giving them a out just like SpaceX. Short-circuit the index joining time and allow them to get into index funds within days. After that you shift all the losses onto 401ks as the original investors cash out and the 401ks blindly buy the shares as part of the index.

Re: OpenAI's fall from grace as investors race to Anthropic

#133

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I just appreciate the honesty of Amodei telling us pretty much straight up we’re all fucked because the AIs are taking all the jobs in a couple years or less.

Honesty? Sounds like investor hype to me.

It's not pure hype. The linear trendline of AI in the last couple of years from chatbot to autocomplete to agentic coding does point to developer replacement in a couple years.

Now mind you a trendline is a predictor and the trends don't always travel in a line. The future is unknown but a trendline that makes the prediction of AI taking over in a couple of years is not an unrealistic prediction simply because of past progress. That is the most probably conclusion given the information we have.

Discarding that as just "hype" just means you're not being very rational or logical which is normal given we're on HN.

Re: OpenAI's fall from grace as investors race to Anthropic

#134

I switched to Anthropic briefly to try out Code, it was great (having never tried such a product) and better than their chat bot which found prettier and nicer to talk to but far more often wrong. Then shortly after Codex was released which made that more accessible and instantly preferred that compared to Code since much more generous allotments for $20 plan. Claude constantly kept hitting. And Code actually had a m…

> much more generous allotments for $20 plan

> imagine many haven't tried Codex recently since all we hear about is Claude Code

My theory is Codex allotments are higher because the demand isn't there (yet). Claude users hit their limits because there is so much more usage.

Re: OpenAI's fall from grace as investors race to Anthropic

#135
post #29

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Anecdotally, I would actually argue tbe opposite - Anthropic is overrated, ass-kissed way too much here for mediocre coding abilities (especially for Elixir). ChatGPT most of the time one-shots complex solutions in comparison. The only reason why people shit on OpenAI so much is because of the defence deal, but, it's not like Anthropic is a saint either: https://www.cnbc.com/2026/02/12/anthropic-gives-20-million-t...

cant take anyone seriously who thinks > ChatGPT most of the time one-shots complex solutions in comparison is an intelligible sentence.

Hmm. I can definitely understand what the author was saying.

Paraphrased: ChatGPT often completes complex solutions in one try whereas Claude does not (or performs less well).

I guess you can’t take me seriously?

Re: OpenAI's fall from grace as investors race to Anthropic

#136
The main point here

> large gap between OpenAI’s $852-billion valuation and Anthropic’s $380 billion

IIRC Anthropic's revenue is either roughly at parity with or larger than OpenAI's, and Anthropic is growing faster[1]. All indicators are that Anthropic should be worth more than OpenAI. Given that, one could reasonably expect the relative valuations to change a great deal. In any case, it's not clear why OpenAI would command such a price premium over Anthropic.

1 - OpenAI says they are doing $2B/mo run rate https://openai.com/index/accelerating-the-next-phase-ai/

Anthropic's run rate increased from $12B to $19B in the period between February 12 and the end of the month. If the implied growth rates held through March, Anthropic may well be larger than OpenAI now.

Re: OpenAI's fall from grace as investors race to Anthropic

#137
post #45

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Same thing happened to Blackberry. Tech head start wasn't that big and product wasn't that sticky.

iOS had an API and a platform. Is there any equivalent for turning an AI LLM into a sticky platform? Right now seems like it’s pretty easy to use harnesses and tooling across models, including open weight and locally running ones.

> Is there any equivalent for turning an AI LLM into a sticky platform?

Not with AI specifically. Having a large, private, data store (e.g. GMail, Google Drive) is the biggest advantage.

Re: OpenAI's fall from grace as investors race to Anthropic

#138
post #119
post #94

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I pay for Google Workspace, so pretty much the Gemini Pro included with that suffices my use case. I can't say it will work for everyone, but I do use it for random tasks - all the way from wood working to building complex software projects, and so far I've rarely hit the limit too.

What Gemini Pro comes with Workspace? Is there api allowance? Different than free users?

I guess if you choose the business standard, you get "Pro access to features & models with enterprise-grade security & privacy"

https://knowledge.workspace.google.com/admin/getting-started...

Re: OpenAI's fall from grace as investors race to Anthropic

#139
post #11

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The reality is given how much OAI has raised, they have to get to a place where they are doing insane revenues… We’re talking on the level of meta, google and probably more if they keep raising money. They really went all in with hubris and they’re gonna get punished eventually.

Just like Uber did?

Uber doesn't have to convert hundreds of millions of users to a paid plan - it was paid to begin with. Much easier to raise prices from a low base than to raise them from $0. When push came to shove, Uber also cut payments to drivers and replaced them with a tip screen. Is Nvidia going to accept tip annuities on ChatGPT responses instead of full payment on its chips?

Most importantly, Uber did not have fast-depreciating cars on its balance sheet - OAI meanwhile is planning to spend the GDP of a mid-size nation on owning fast-depreciating datacenters, which they deem necessary to cope with the demand for their services.

Re: OpenAI's fall from grace as investors race to Anthropic

#140

And x.ai is at $2T now, while qwen baba is under $200B…

Silicon Valley valuation numbers are entirely made up to boost their IPO. Actual value is only determined after these companies go public.

Allbirds, the shoe brand, went public at $4bn in 2021 and sold its assets last week for $39 million.

> Neil Saunders, the managing director of the consultancy and market analysis firm GlobalData said: “Allbirds has gone from being a high flyer to a dead parrot.” He said its early success “was driven by Silicon Valley hype, more than deep popularity with consumers in the American hinterland”.

[0] https://www.theguardian.com/business/2026/apr/02/eco-shoe-br...

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