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The Demoralization is just Beginning

geohot.github.io

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Re: The Demoralization is just Beginning

#131

Post by crq-yml »

I think the brain drain idea is fine. Making a goldbug argument is surprisingly regressive. Currency is a socially constructed phenomenon in all times and places, and gold is only special in that at this moment, reverting to it would cause a violent reset to the balance sheet - a temporary, painful fix.

The progressive option would be to deeply question "what lies beyond trade?" and to search for answers beyond the conventional regulated/unregulated spectrum, answers that are compatible in some degree with our starting place but allow broad movement. We know what trade is and does, but the economies it produces are no match for the hivemind efficacy of an ants or beavers. The frameworks of trade are negotiated around maintenance of fiefdoms, and economic activity is regularly blocked because the power structure will push against it and normalize "we can't have that here".

At the same time, we know that power needs checks and balances, and the capitalist mode of power creates some checks on power through its use of trade. That is what has kept it ahead of command economies.

What I find appealing about continuing down a crypto-oriented route is that it's a data structure with a balance sheet as a frontend. The frontend can change - it is a thing that can be experimented with. Valorizing the numbers on the balance sheet as gold-equivalent has always been an adaptive, "this is the only way we know how to do things" kind of social construction. If we can construct a different kind of game to play, the motives can shift.

Re: The Demoralization is just Beginning

#132

Post by ryandamm »

rayiner wrote: post #109
rat87 wrote: post #72

Earlier quoted context omitted.

India despite flaws is a democracy same as the US. It's a very different country then China. Plenty of immigrants from tyrannical countries are as if not more committed to democracy as those born here And just because someone was born in China or India it doesn't make them any less American then someone born in Iowa. Their children might be born in Iowa

Democracy isn't created by intentions or "commitment," but rather the culture of the people, their attitudes, and mental processes. An Iowan born in Iowa to Iowan parents who were born to Iowan parents is steeped from birth in a culture that is very different from someone born in India or China--or even the American-born children of Indians and Chinese immigrants. Immigrants may become legally American overnight, but…

I think America in its best expression is an amalgamation of many different backgrounds and attitudes. Even differing opinions on the functioning of democracy, though I personally think some opinions denigrating democracy are a bit out of bounds and "unamerican" -- though that's obviously a "no true Scotsman" argument, I'm sticking to it.

I guess I'm just arguing for a more expansive view of what constitutes an American. If it was some precious fragile thing that gets diluted by immigration and threatened by cultural mixing and new ideas, well...

Oh... darnit.

Re: The Demoralization is just Beginning

#133

Post by lxgr »

kawaiikouhai wrote: post #128
lxgr wrote: post #87

Earlier quoted context omitted.

My suspicion is that for a lot of people that grew up in and only know the US, there's a sense of impending doom if "American hegemony" ever were to be replaced by something else. But since there's no real practical experience of how that would actually feel (or rather, how a very high quality of life and subjective happiness are possible without an US salary in many other countries), they instead project from someth…

Exactly. I had this exact thought experiment of "What if America were no longer Hegemon". So, I looked at other historic examples. The British, Dutch, and Spanish. (You can add German/Austrian and the French, close contenders). They're all still very well-off!

I actually grew up in one of these, and I fully agree.

Yes, my country was significantly larger and more influential a century ago. It even was an empire, with an emperor and all! But no, I don't feel like the average person born back then had a better life than me.

Re: The Demoralization is just Beginning

#134

Post by systemf_omega »

lxgr wrote: post #122
systemf_omega wrote: post #118

Earlier quoted context omitted.

This has been done before, and America comes out consistently on top. Even the median purchasing power parity (PPP) in the US is frequently ranked highest in the world. The majority of American households in the poorest US states are doing better than the majority of Europeans. This gets amplified if you're a highly sought after professional. Top senior engineers are getting paid $500k-$1M in the US. These are figure…

Yes, if you're a professional in high demand, you can live a great life in the US. But how does the quality of life of everybody below the median look like? > This gets amplified if you're a highly sought after professional. Top senior engineers are getting paid $500k-$1M in the US. These are figures you'll never find in Europe or Asia, not even close. But what does that buy you really, in a high cost of living area?…

> But how does the quality of life of everybody below the median look like?

This discussion is about whether or not the US is a top brain drain destination. That means we're talking about exceptionally skilled or promising scientists/engineers/doctors at the top of their field. I'm not claiming life is great for everyone in America. I agree it isn't.

> But what does that buy you really, in a high cost of living area?

Look at the PPP in CA. It buys you a lot. People in HCOL cities that manage their finances well can become multi-millionaires in their early 30s. They will already be able to retire in 99% of the world, with enough savings to lead incredibly comfortable and luxurious lives. Meanwhile, people in Europe have on average lower assets and savings, low levels of home ownership, and lower likelihood to retire early at a comparable standard of living. Not to mention the pension crisis many of them are or will be facing in the near future.

Re: The Demoralization is just Beginning

#135

Post by jazzyjackson »

unethical_ban wrote: post #129
jazzyjackson wrote: post #26

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Im reading a charming book called Tramps and Ladies, an autobiography of a ship captain of the Cunard line in the transition from sail to steam. The last chapter I read paints a picture of the unrestricted immigration of the 1900s - anyone with 5 pounds could hop on a ship in Hamburg, Liverpool, or Piraeus and start a new life in the States, and people poured into New York in the millions. I wonder if the mass emigra…

What cruise line? I want to do a true transatlantic crossing, not some Caribbean jaunt.

Cunard’s Queen Mary 2 is all that’s left of the oceanliners (As Janet from the Good Place might say, “not a cruise ship!” ;) she’s built to handle the North Atlantic weather.

If you’re lucky enough to be able to fuck off for 42 days you might also be interested in ocean crossings by sail, here’s the offering ive considered, the Europa: https://www.barkeuropa.com/en/our-voyages

Re: The Demoralization is just Beginning

#136

Post by cuteboy19 »

rayiner wrote: post #109
rat87 wrote: post #72

Earlier quoted context omitted.

India despite flaws is a democracy same as the US. It's a very different country then China. Plenty of immigrants from tyrannical countries are as if not more committed to democracy as those born here And just because someone was born in China or India it doesn't make them any less American then someone born in Iowa. Their children might be born in Iowa

Democracy isn't created by intentions or "commitment," but rather the culture of the people, their attitudes, and mental processes. An Iowan born in Iowa to Iowan parents who were born to Iowan parents is steeped from birth in a culture that is very different from someone born in India or China--or even the American-born children of Indians and Chinese immigrants. Immigrants may become legally American overnight, but…

after jan6 we can pretty much put all asian democracies (minus pakistan) above the US in terms of democracy. SK recently had a similar coup-lite situation, not tolerated there.

accepting loss is a core tenet of democracy

Re: The Demoralization is just Beginning

#137

Post by cuteboy19 »

systemf_omega wrote: post #59
ryandamm wrote: post #11

I prefer my economic takes from economists, or people who actually study these things. -there is more to an economy than manufacturing. Using manufacturing metrics to rate an economy is like scoring a soccer game based on how far your players run: in some contexts correlated with “winning” but in others it’s not. -gold is not a good currency or basis for monetary policy. -these ideas only sound self consistent withou…

The US is already the brain drain destination #1. Nowhere else can highly skilled people generate comparable levels of income.

a chinese student graduating from Harvard is 60% likely to voluntarily return to china. its on borrowed time now

Re: The Demoralization is just Beginning

#138

Post by ryandamm »

janalsncm wrote: post #38
ryandamm wrote: post #20

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Arguing that manufacturing is strategic is not the same thing as manufacturing being “all that matters in an economy.” There’s a logical fallacy in your rebuttal.

There are other important outcomes of an economy, like better healthcare, education, housing, and well-being. But it seems like those real, tangible outcomes have become decoupled from “the line goes up” economy. I think the original reply was itself a strawman of the point the article was trying to make. Manufacturing isn’t the only important thing about an economy but it’s an important one.

I don't think my point was straw-manning the article. The article directly conflates economic output with manufacturing output, by using manufacturing signals (like power consumption!) as a corollary for some hidden, Real Economy.

That's crackpottery. I was succinct in my criticism, but there is plenty of room for elaboration.

If the essay instead took those economic indicators and delved into why manufacturing output should matter more than other output in determining the Real Economy, then hey, we've got an essay to discuss. But just eliding that and saying "manufacturing is real because atoms are real, everything else is b.s." -- that's not really an argument, that's just laying your biases extremely bare. Which I pointed out.

That said, geohot is close to some real points, I just don't think he has the background to articulate it rigorously. And for the record, I do think the US economy is entirely too financialized.

But again, that's a different -- likely better -- essay.

Re: The Demoralization is just Beginning

#139

Post by 0dayz »

Yet another prodigy turned to a "know it all" with no actual education to back anything said about specific topics.

You can critic America for failing to transition away from the manufacturing economy or how awfully bad they are at utilizing government to drive innovation or extra market value (look at the dogshit railway infrastructure) but pointing to manufacturer graph and doing soy face ain't it.

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