Earlier quoted context omitted.
There is _one_ other GPU maker.
What the hell is intel doing? I have been holding their stock for a few years now. Where is the moon?
Hoping to build chips for others as they open their foundry business up
Nvidia is now more valuable than Amazon and Google
131–140 of 379 posts
Re: Nvidia is now more valuable than Amazon and Google
#132It's nice to see a company that actually _makes something_ be worth more than companies who just act as middlemen to extract a few dollars from transactions.
Re: Nvidia is now more valuable than Amazon and Google
#133Somehow I wish it weren't true because I hate monopolies in any markets. Nvidia has been enjoying their absurd premium on consumer and production GPUs and intentionally removed the NVLink capability in the GeForce 4090 series (3090 had them) to avoid cannibalizing their A100 and H100 business. With NVLink, people could chain multiple GPUs and increase the overall VRAM without much reduction in bandwidth. But without…
You can do this in software, effectively.
Re: Nvidia is now more valuable than Amazon and Google
#134As much as I’d like to say it’s overpriced, its only potential competitor, AMD, is even more overpriced with an eye watering P/E of 324 as of right now, three times that of NVIDIA. Such numbers are stark raving insanity for hardware companies. For comparison, Apple, fully in possession of the world’s most valuable brand, and a gigantic money printer powered by a loyal, billion+ user strong customer base, and a deep p…
Feel free to short sell both?
Re: Nvidia is now more valuable than Amazon and Google
#135Earlier quoted context omitted.
In the LLM world, each month is a year and each week is a month. AMD hasn't done anything substantive in the past two years since GPT-3/GPT-3.5. Almost every research paper implements their algorithm in CUDA. AMD can't beat software with good hardware.
AMD has rocm and added a CUDA compat layer to it. Nvidia is in the limelight, but their product (GPU compute) is a commodity. Once someone else has it cheaper, then it’s a race to the bottom.
They did not add a compat layer, where did you get this?
The recent news was about AMD giving up on that path.
Re: Nvidia is now more valuable than Amazon and Google
#136Earlier quoted context omitted.
> Somehow I wish it weren't true because I hate monopolies in any markets. If you peel the layers back... isn't the real monopoly ASML?
I am always wondering why ASML hasn’t got any antitrust lawsuits for their monopoly.
Because they're not a monopoly based on anticompetitive practices, they're a monopoly because what they do is so difficult and massively expensive that the monopoly is the only thing that makes it economically viable. The worldwide market for these machines is only perhaps a few dozen a year at most, it just can't support paying the R&D bills of multiple competitors.
ASML is also part-owned by their customers. Intel, Samsung and TSMC all invested in ASML to get EUV tech over the line - see aforementioned capital requirements.
Re: Nvidia is now more valuable than Amazon and Google
#137It seems deeply overvalued to me, as it's pretty likely that NVIDIA's competitors will have parallel computation hardware that competes well enough. I'm personally not a fan of NVIDIA's drivers or the reliability of their hardware.
Feel free to short sell NVIDIA?
Re: Nvidia is now more valuable than Amazon and Google
#138Earlier quoted context omitted.
I’m not sure I would bet an ads/spyware company with admittedly deep deep pockets would beat a specialized hyper focused company at its core business, especially as they have deeper pockets now with 30 years of experience in the sub sector. If Nvidia were wandering in the desert like Cisco I could believe it. But Nvidia isn’t, and I don’t believe Google, Amazon, or others will beat Nvidia at their own game. (Given my…
Have you worked at a large (say 500+ employee) company that you would say isn't "deeply f'ed"? I once read a fascinating corporate history of Xerox, and that company became deeply, deeply f'ed up in ways that are of their time but do have strong parallels to the issues I understand that FAANG, particularly Google, have.
> Have you worked at a large (say 500+ employee) company that you would say isn't "deeply f'ed"?
Perhaps Google until around 2010? Or Goldman Sachs until the 1990s?
Re: Nvidia is now more valuable than Amazon and Google
#139Earlier quoted context omitted.
Then why wouldn't they just make more of them? The excuse is supposed to be fab capacity, but the 3070 has better performance than the 4060 etc. and is built on the older process which should no longer be in short supply.
Is it an issue of supply? I figure they think non-gamers will be willing and able to pay far more for their hardware than most gamers could ever afford. If they sold comparable products to gamers at a low price the non-gamers would just end up buying them up and even if there was enough supply to satisfy the needs of everyone Nvidia would still be out a fortune. It'd be better for them to sell low priced gaming cards…
> If they sold comparable products to gamers at a low price the non-gamers would just end up buying them up and even if there was enough supply to satisfy the needs of everyone Nvidia would still be out a fortune.
That's the point. They're not trying to do gamers a favor, if it was that they'd just make more cards. What they're trying to do is market segmentation, which customers despise and resent.
Re: Nvidia is now more valuable than Amazon and Google
#140Earlier quoted context omitted.
don't underestimate market forces. Same could have been told about Intel, but Apple anyway beat them in some ways and took away big market share
AMD has taken more CPU market share from Intel than Apple. But the weird thing about the "Nvidia will remain undefeated forever" theory is that it seems to assume they have some kind of permanent advantage. Nvidia was well positioned to make an early investment in this because they had the right combination of existing technology and resources. Other companies would have had to invest more because they were starting…
> It's like betting that Tesla will retain their 2022 market share in electric car market even as the market grows and everyone else gets in.
Yes. Especially once you take the Chinese electric car companies into account, that are already outselling Tesla.