131–140 of 246 posts
Earlier quoted context omitted.
Randomly sifting through data in search of patterns is not an experiment in the usual sense. With a big enough data set, you're guaranteed to find one in a billion, one in a trillion events by random chance.
Finding correlations is not the same as finding one in a trillion events.
Related : Earthquakes here on earth DO emit light !! https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Earthquake_lights
At least one of the videos linked from the references in that article is pretty dramatic, with frequent pulses of blue light from different locations near the ground.[1] If there is a link between cosmic radiation and earthquakes (and that's a very big "if"), could it be Cherenkov radiation caused by super-high-energy particles exceeding the speed of electromagnetic radiation in bedrock/soil/whatever (not C, obviousl…
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It would be better than anything else we have at the moment
From https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_earthquakes_2021%E2%80... there were 44 earthquakes with a magnitude >= 7.0 in the last 2.5 years. That is one every 17 days. The GP is almost correct: There is a high chance [1] of an earthquake somewhere in the world, including oceans, in 17 days. [1] If you want to be fancy with probabilities, 64% of at least one earthquake. In some 17 days periods you will get no earthqu…
The 64% is still 64% because if N is big enough it almost doesn't depend if you consider something with a probability of 1/17 in 17 days or something with a probability of 1/21 in 21 days.
The key claim in the paper ( https://arxiv.org/pdf/2204.12310.pdf ) is that there are detectable changes in cosmic ray activity around 15 days before major seismic events. One posited mechanism is that stuff happens deep in the earth that affects the magnetic field first, and then kicks off some big earthquake. But they don't rule out loopier ideas (like sunspot activity driving changes in the Earth's dynamo that the…
I think it's telling that none of the authors are geophysicists, and they definitely aren't statisticians either. The causality they're claiming just does not have any physical plausibility. > Dr. Homola states, “In the scientific world, it is accepted that a discovery can be said to have been made when the statistical confidence level of the corroborating data reaches five sigma, or standard deviations.” > Homola co…
I agree with you regarding p-values. But why are you appealing to credentials and dismissing the idea with your own boldly unsupported claim? > The causality they're claiming just does not have any physical plausibility. Survey the literature and you’ll find plenty of evidence that there is some credence to the idea.
The central claim is that changes in cosmic ray frequencies can predict earthquakes. The proposed causal mechanism is changes in the geodynamo affecting the propagation of cosmic rays. The effect on cosmic rays is secondary to the changes in geomagnetism. Despite decades of people looking for evidence, changes in geomagnetism are not associated with earthquakes[0].
If this paper's hypothesis is true, geomagnetic fluctuations should co-occur with fluctuations of cosmic ray counts - thus geomagnetic fluctuations should also predict earthquakes. But they don't.
Claims of being able to predict earthquakes have had a long and not great history. Earthquake prediction is the faster-than-light travel of geophysics. Any claims that it is possible should be viewed with extreme scrutiny.
[0] https://www.usgs.gov/faqs/are-earthquakes-associated-variati...
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Or there's a common trigger event, like, say, a large gravitational wave or a passing cloud of weakly interacting matter(dark matter?) which triggers both increased cosmic ray emissions along with earthquakes. Not that I believe any of this, but it seems we're just pulling stuff out of our asses so I figured I'd give it a shot.
One aspect of gravity waves is that other than being extremely weak, they cannot perform work. So they don't cause mechanical forces.
Edit: ah, you mean for any practical purposes. Duh.
Earlier quoted context omitted.
Or there's a common trigger event, like, say, a large gravitational wave or a passing cloud of weakly interacting matter(dark matter?) which triggers both increased cosmic ray emissions along with earthquakes. Not that I believe any of this, but it seems we're just pulling stuff out of our asses so I figured I'd give it a shot.
One aspect of gravity waves is that other than being extremely weak, they cannot perform work. So they don't cause mechanical forces.
The key claim in the paper ( https://arxiv.org/pdf/2204.12310.pdf ) is that there are detectable changes in cosmic ray activity around 15 days before major seismic events. One posited mechanism is that stuff happens deep in the earth that affects the magnetic field first, and then kicks off some big earthquake. But they don't rule out loopier ideas (like sunspot activity driving changes in the Earth's dynamo that the…
It's fine to form a hypothesis from old data ... but it's not a theory yet until that hypothesis is challenged by (and isn't falsified by) future data :-)
This was discussed quite a bit after 2004 asian tsunami, which was triggered by an earthquake near Antarctica and there was also some massive gamma ray burst (or something) occurring about the same time. I wouldn’t be surprised. It’s a connected universe. No thing is an island.
Well, islands are islands, aren't they?
The key claim in the paper ( https://arxiv.org/pdf/2204.12310.pdf ) is that there are detectable changes in cosmic ray activity around 15 days before major seismic events. One posited mechanism is that stuff happens deep in the earth that affects the magnetic field first, and then kicks off some big earthquake. But they don't rule out loopier ideas (like sunspot activity driving changes in the Earth's dynamo that the…
I believe in particle physics this is known as the “look-elsewhere effect”. Basically if look long and hard enough for a pattern, you will eventual find it if your parameter space is large enough: https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Look-elsewhere_effect