Lumber crash leads to 'blowout' sales as prices crater

Post by dboreham » Thu, Sep 16, 2021, 5:14 AM UTC

hellbannedguy wrote: post #37

mgkimsal wrote: post #13

"If high prices held you back from building, you are in luck, as the tables have now turned" Except... many builders will find some other reason/excuse where prices are high to keep prices high. We were looking at building a house - talked to builder last November and... looking at $470-$480k range (ballpark estimate). Lumber was going higher, but we'd reduced the house plan size. Lumber kept going up... and up... Th…

I would wait. I'm an licensed inactive General Contractor. If 14 months ago, they were building them for $450,000, I'd wait. I'd shop around for another contractor too. A young guy starting out, might save you a lot. (There's no way to verify he knows what he's doing though.) If you are some what handy, it's not that difficult to owner build your own house. That is if you get the blueprints past the town's council. G…

Post by Dylan16807 » Thu, Sep 16, 2021, 5:20 AM UTC

tayo42 wrote: post #124

Dylan16807 wrote: post #118

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Hang on let me check your other comments in this thread. You do! Most people, when they get a mortgage, they're going deep into debt. You have about that much in liquid assets. You can definitely afford it.

Ehh I think it would be irresponsible to use all my savings like that, plus you need to buy the land to build on and pay for your current place

Post by Igelau » Thu, Sep 16, 2021, 5:22 AM UTC

throwaway984393 wrote: post #71

edrxty wrote: post #57

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Assuming you are very mechanically inclined but not particularly well versed to traditional construction, what does one do to learn more about this process?

Spend 3 months watching YouTube, you'll probably learn more tips than many contractors know. Then 3 months practicing small mock-ups - building forms, frames, stairs, windows, roofs, installing insulation, vapor barriers, sheeting, drywall. A fancy shed isn't a bad place to start. Plan on hiring a plumber, electrician, and HVAC specialist. Probably another 3-6 months to figure out all the paperwork.

Post by vmception » Thu, Sep 16, 2021, 5:29 AM UTC

JohnJamesRambo wrote: post #42

xnx wrote: post #35

Multi-year chart of lumber prices puts some of these "skyrocketing" and "cratering" headlines in perspective: https://tradingeconomics.com/commodity/lumber

I don’t understand your comment and scare quotes, do you think a quadrupling in price of a commodity is not skyrocketing? That’s a cool website thank you for sharing it.

Post by RNCTX » Thu, Sep 16, 2021, 5:37 AM UTC

octopoc wrote: post #60

hellbannedguy wrote: post #37

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I would wait. I'm an licensed inactive General Contractor. If 14 months ago, they were building them for $450,000, I'd wait. I'd shop around for another contractor too. A young guy starting out, might save you a lot. (There's no way to verify he knows what he's doing though.) If you are some what handy, it's not that difficult to owner build your own house. That is if you get the blueprints past the town's council. G…

If I may ask, what are your thoughts on BuildZoom? If I go through them can I be more certain about quality work? I have heard many horror stories of people who had houses built and the builders made terrible mistakes. The person having the house built had to micromanage them and kept finding bad mistakes, like "forgetting" to put insulation in walls before the drywall, putting a window in the wrong spot, or putting…