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Nearly 12M Square Feet of Vacant Office Space in S.F

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Re: Nearly 12M Square Feet of Vacant Office Space in S.F

#131

Post by dang »

flurben wrote: post #87
digitaltrees wrote: post #77

Earlier quoted context omitted.

You seem to be hinting at interesting things here but its hard to follow, the writing feels like a disjointed short hand with unstated context that requires experience to unpack. What are "those empty Walgreens shelves", not having been there I don't know what you mean. Further, SF was not unique in experiencing that. I experienced it in North Carolina and Utah. What do you mean "squalor that is not that real?", what…

I agree, linguistically that comment borders on gibberish.

Please don't be rude in comments here, and please don't pile on.

digitaltrees' reply gives vmception a nice invitation to expand, which would benefit all of us. Swipes like the one in your comment unfortunately have the opposite effect on conversation.

https://news.ycombinator.com/newsguidelines.html

Re: Nearly 12M Square Feet of Vacant Office Space in S.F

#132

Post by ChuckMcM »

sebmellen wrote: post #2

A close relative of mine is a top real estate appraiser based in San Francisco, and she's terrified about what happens in Q2 2021, when leases will start terminating en masse. She's had a call with the St. Louis Fed, as they're trying to get an idea of what this will look like. She thinks it will be a bloodbath, and deal a death blow to corporate real estate (and other capital markets by extension).

This is a good point. I explained it to my mother with an analogy to a cruise ship heading toward shore at full speed. Everyone knows this means the ship will run aground, but few appreciate that given the mass (and thus momentum) the ship would travel far inland just scraping across the ground.

The coming economic response to the pandemic has the potential to be like that, basically 10x the 2009 "great recession" and a lot of second and third order effects.

Hard to predict what to do and it's nice to hear the Fed doing their research. The TARP program in 2009 was pretty creative and managed a pretty big thwack without nearly as much pain as their could have been.

Re: Nearly 12M Square Feet of Vacant Office Space in S.F

#133

Post by [deleted] »

javajosh wrote: post #94
OpticalWindows wrote: post #15

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Im suddenly having a vision of a corporate housing commune. Starting a hydroponics lab in the middle of office space /s

So, I know you were joking but this idea has more than a little validity. In my vision, it would be a small group of families that would meditate daily together, and collaborate on chores and child-raising, and (this part I haven't figured out yet) work on the same project, or perhaps WFH on software-like things. Ideally there would be daycare, gardening, and some sort of exercise (yoga) involved. I mean, yeah its ea…

[deleted]

Re: Nearly 12M Square Feet of Vacant Office Space in S.F

#134

Post by paulgb »

perardi wrote: post #111
sjg007 wrote: post #99

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It’s based on IRS direct deposit.

…yes, and? I said that. Quote: “salaried job with direct deposit”

I'm not the above poster, but I took your comment to mean direct deposit from your employer to your account, not direct deposit from the IRS to your account (for tax refunds, which is what I assume the above poster means).

Re: Nearly 12M Square Feet of Vacant Office Space in S.F

#135

Post by [deleted] »

flurben wrote: post #87
digitaltrees wrote: post #77

Earlier quoted context omitted.

You seem to be hinting at interesting things here but its hard to follow, the writing feels like a disjointed short hand with unstated context that requires experience to unpack. What are "those empty Walgreens shelves", not having been there I don't know what you mean. Further, SF was not unique in experiencing that. I experienced it in North Carolina and Utah. What do you mean "squalor that is not that real?", what…

I agree, linguistically that comment borders on gibberish.

[deleted]

Re: Nearly 12M Square Feet of Vacant Office Space in S.F

#136

Post by sebmellen »

dang wrote: post #127
OpticalWindows wrote: post #5

We haven't even seen the extent of the depression yet. Combined with congressional inaction on social spending a lot of people are going to be in very deep finanical issues. This is a systemic problem that we needed fixed 3 months ago.

(We detached this subthread from https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=24890196 .)

How do subthreads work? I assume they're just hidden due to divisiveness / flamewar risk?

Re: Nearly 12M Square Feet of Vacant Office Space in S.F

#137

Post by albacur »

digitaltrees wrote: post #77
vmception wrote: post #24

Still not moving back. Seeing those empty Walgreens shelves was it for me. Even the social programs and tolerance of the squalor is not that real, it is simply that the transient population is not affected: students and programmers. The same population that just left. I appreciate all the optimism for San Francisco but it just seems to lack context from the mid-atlantic cities that are carcasses of an industrial era…

You seem to be hinting at interesting things here but its hard to follow, the writing feels like a disjointed short hand with unstated context that requires experience to unpack. What are "those empty Walgreens shelves", not having been there I don't know what you mean. Further, SF was not unique in experiencing that. I experienced it in North Carolina and Utah. What do you mean "squalor that is not that real?", what…

It might require the added context of living here. San Francisco has one of the highest property crime rates in the United States [1], and Walgreens is a popular target of shoplifters, who regularly clear out entire shelves of merchandise. The company hasn't come out and said it, but some believe that rampant shoplifting is a reason why eight Walgreens locations in the city have been permanently closed [2].

[1] https://www.sfchronicle.com/bayarea/philmatier/article/SF-ra... [2] https://www.sfchronicle.com/bayarea/philmatier/article/Rampa...

Re: Nearly 12M Square Feet of Vacant Office Space in S.F

#138

Post by rossdavidh »

albacur wrote: post #91

I'm excited by the idea of permanent remote work and moving somewhere more affordable. I moved to SF relatively late in my career, and only realized afterwards that I have nowhere near enough savings to own a nice home here. But most of my coworkers seem eager to return to the office. They miss the office environment, the perks and catered meals, and the socialization. And the managers, who subsist on meetings and in…

I agree, but with a caveat. The _very_ top execs of large organizations (Google, Facebook, etc.) may be anxious to get to a lower-salary environment, and remote work may be a necessary part of that. If they are determined to move to a structure where they don't have to pay SV salaries, they might overrule their middle-management and extend remote work in order to facilitate that.

Re: Nearly 12M Square Feet of Vacant Office Space in S.F

#139

Post by perardi »

tlear wrote: post #125
perardi wrote: post #29

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Meanwhile, in Canada… http://trreb.ca/index.php/market-news/market-stats#commercia... If leasing activity and sales volume are good indicators, it’s down. Though prices are up slightly… Also that data is nation-wide, and not specifically for Toronto, which is reasonable to assume would be the hardest hit. (Biggest city, and Ontario has not controlled this as well as British Columbia.)

I think aggregate for the country is almost meaningless, these things are very local. Toronto residential rentals are dropping but not that quickly. Construction has not slowed and condos are popping up like mushrooms. Prices seem stable for now There is A LOT of hiring by US companies. Canadian labor is so cheap compared to CA. Every startup past series A seems to be opening a Toronto branch. This is awesome news as…

Fiiiine, I am projecting, I admit it.

I still can’t believe people are paying $600,000+ CAD for a 533 square-foot condo, and yet, condo prices are even headed up a bit.

Re: Nearly 12M Square Feet of Vacant Office Space in S.F

#140

Post by AdamJacobMuller »

sebmellen wrote: post #104
hogFeast wrote: post #68

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Agreed. Very hard to estimate that effect. With corporate real estate, it is inherently local (you cannot export an office) so the question is about the swings in vacancies. Have some markets seen ~15% vacancies before? Yes, corporate real estate is very cyclical, no-one builds for years, and then the market adds 40-50% in a few years. But when it gets to 30-40% then you are probably looking for examples outside the…

You're right, things will move on, and I am not (personally) all that worried. Nor are the creditors who can afford to eat a loss. My concern is more about the ripple effects. Many low-skilled workers rely on service work, and servicing corporate real estate is a real industry (janitorial services, managerial duties, parking lot attendants, plumbers, even construction). They are already having a pretty hard time of i…

The same effects which will drop commercial office real estate prices will drop commercial residential prices and thus their rents.

And, if it doesn't, in the absence of work they always have the option of moving somewhere with a more attractive income to cost of living ratio.

Much harder for a company to up and move than an individual or a family.

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