How South Korea Reined In The Outbreak Without Shutting Everything Down • Hacker News Board

Re: How South Korea Reined In The Outbreak Without Shutting Everything Down

#131

Post by claudeganon » Fri, Mar 27, 2020, 1:02 PM UTC

Symmetry wrote: post #116

claudeganon wrote: post #111

Earlier quoted context omitted.

No, it actually does protect you, just not as effectively as N-95s. That’s why hospitals are seeking out donations of homemade masks right now. “The masks don’t do anything” story was just something floated around to prevent runs on hospital supplies. A better strategy would’ve have been to say “everyone make and wear your own masks and it will afford us some additional amount of protection.”

I wouldn't rush to assume that it was part of a deliberate deception. People assume the function of an item from its intended use all the time and surgical masks genuinely don't provide that much protection from some viruses like measles or chicken pox. I think it's just a case that "they don't protect you" being the unexamined received wisdom and people just not bothering to look at actual studies.

I wish this was true, but I saw this claim made by more than one public-facing scientist that I’m certain knows better. If we had started adopting mass mask wearing, we could have helped reduce the spread and had people geared up to make masks for frontline healthcare workers.

Re: How South Korea Reined In The Outbreak Without Shutting Everything Down

#132

Post by h91wka » Fri, Mar 27, 2020, 1:12 PM UTC

cyphar wrote: post #64

throwaway_pdp09 wrote: post #35

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I've read repeatedly (and heard on the radio several times) that wearing a mask if YOU are infected will help protect other people, but if you are not infected then it has no known protective effect ie. is not thought to be any more protective than not wearing one. Do you have any evidence to back up you talk of masks? (And if YOU are infected you should not be out anyway) Edit: I was thinking of non-medical situatio…

This was a coordinated (dare I say "propaganda") campaign by US and other government officials in order to try to avoid mask shortages[1]. A noble goal, sure -- but the net result is that people are now misinformed about the efficacy of masks. The evidence very much shows that wearing masks can reduce community transmission rates of SARS-like viruses -- up to 70% even with just plain surgical masks[2]. And even if yo…

> This was a coordinated (dare I say "propaganda") campaign by US and other government officials in order to try to avoid mask shortages[1]. A noble goal, sure -- but the net result is that people are now misinformed about the efficacy of masks.

There's nothing noble about it. This is extremely short-sighted. What is easier to solve, shortage of masks, or shortage of ICU beds and medical personnel?

I would imagine that a face mask is a relatively low-tech good that can be mass-produced at scale. You cannot ramp up production of ICU beds and nurses and doctors. If this is true, then the consequences of this "noble" decision will make Chernobyl blush.

Re: How South Korea Reined In The Outbreak Without Shutting Everything Down

#133

Post by TeMPOraL » Fri, Mar 27, 2020, 1:17 PM UTC

raaaaraaaa12 wrote: post #75

aneutron wrote: post #69

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Can you please attest to the correctness of the news about the Czech government stealing a shipment of masks that was meant to be delivered to Italy [1] ? If so, is there something the "outsiders" are missing (e.g. some political bs between the two countries) ? Or is it just plain old theft ? [1]: https://www.reuters.com/article/us-health-coronavirus-czech-...

https://www.radio.cz/en/section/curraffrs/why-chinese-masks-... Czech authorities during a customs raid last Tuesday mistakenly seized 101,600 facemasks gifted by a branch of the Red Cross in eastern China to a Chinese community in Italy. Although Czech officials apologized for the mix-up, the Italian newspaper La Repubblica on Sunday published a bogus article claiming the Czech state had “stolen” that shipment – and…

> --- My comment is that our goverment officials or those policemans are probably stupid...

Or they thought "better safe than sorry", given that smugglers aren't stupid and you can't just believe it was sent by Red Cross just because the courier says so.

If anything, I'd ask why La Repubblica published a bogus article.

Re: How South Korea Reined In The Outbreak Without Shutting Everything Down

#134

Post by zorak » Fri, Mar 27, 2020, 1:18 PM UTC

Maximus9000 wrote: post #122

supdatecron wrote: post #120

Earlier quoted context omitted.

There was a study that showed cotton masks can actually be worse. A medical person showed me the other day, I’ll have to ask for the link

There is also a study that shows many studies findings cannot be reproduced: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Replication_crisis From where I stand, the countries that have a culture of wearing masks are doing better with regards to coronavirus. At the very least, it seems like a good hypothesis.

I'm reminded of Naseem Taleb's statement that when you measure a table with a ruler, you are also measuring the ruler with the table.

Re: How South Korea Reined In The Outbreak Without Shutting Everything Down

#135

Post by didgeoridoo » Fri, Mar 27, 2020, 1:18 PM UTC

mcsb4 wrote: post #21

Again another article that doesn't even mention the use of masks and hand sanitizer. The cost of the epidemic now goes into the trillions, self-made cotton masks are cheap compared to the economic damage. They can be disinfected in boiling water and if everybody uses them they will help to stop the spreading of the virus. In all the countries mentioned in the article people wear masks when in public, often just again…

But I was assured by the media that masks are useless, and that hand sanitizer is only for bacteria...?

Re: How South Korea Reined In The Outbreak Without Shutting Everything Down

#136

Post by TeMPOraL » Fri, Mar 27, 2020, 1:22 PM UTC

h91wka wrote: post #94

Freestyler_3 wrote: post #8

They took proactive measurements when the rest of the world was still looking at how things would develop. Making tests well before they had their first case. When my country got its first cases they were still saying it isn't that contagious and everything is fine.

My key takeaway from this entire situation is that authorities in Europe and USA don't understand how exponent works. Every country that is now suffering from the pandemic went through "c'mon, it's just 10 cases" phase. We had ~two months to observe how the situation unfolds in Asia, yet learned nothing. As for me, back in late February when I checked the dashboard and saw that ~10 cases were registered in my country…

Yeah. And the funny thing is, a lot of people in the west - and presumably, most politicians and people in high places - understand how compound interest works. And it's the same thing.

You could literally rephrase the pandemic as: "Imagine total cases are dollars, then $country has 1000 dollars on their account, with 30% daily interest capitalized daily". Maybe that would've gotten through better?

Re: How South Korea Reined In The Outbreak Without Shutting Everything Down

#137

Post by robryan » Fri, Mar 27, 2020, 1:24 PM UTC

adventured wrote: post #27

izacus wrote: post #15

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I was following Thailand (due to now cancelled trip) and it seemed they used the "turn off monitoring in production" approach to solving this crisis. Meaning - they don't have cases because they weren't testing them and weren't reporting them truthfully.

It's a consideration. However, where is the million dead people that should be happening between these nations given the 440 million people? The virus would be destroying them at this point. We've seen what it can do in Italy, the US, Germany, France, etc. in terms of spreading and hitting ICU units, killing people. It has a 10% mortality rate despite Italy's best efforts, and a 5.7% mortality rate in France (among p…

Depends when it really took off in each country, the time from transmission to requiring hospitalisation can be fairly long, 2-3 weeks. It seems a country can probably avoid testing for a decent period of time until the wave of hospitalisations hit them.

Re: How South Korea Reined In The Outbreak Without Shutting Everything Down

#138

Post by learnstats2 » Fri, Mar 27, 2020, 1:34 PM UTC

iso1631 wrote: post #19

blauditore wrote: post #13

Testing more thoroughly would also provide us with a better understanding of the virus' properties, like the distribution of symptoms, severities, and mortality rate. I think one of the main reason for general fear and panic has been the alleged high mortality rate, with numbers up to 5% being mentioned. But there's a strong selection bias in those statistics (people with severe cases get tested more often), so the a…

It's a small sample, but it's a comprehensive one as everyone was tested. On the Diamond Pricess, it only reached 20% of the people on board, and of those 60% had no medical symptoms. Overall 1% of people catching it died. As a cruise ship the passengers tend to be older, but the crew tend to be younger. Doesn't matter if you test 1 million people or 10,000 people, if you aren't doing statistically significant tests,…

Statistics is not the only purpose of testing!

If physical distancing is successful in reducing the reproduction number (R0), you will then want to track, trace and isolate every case to prevent further outbreaks when you relax the rules.

That means a lot of testing.

Re: How South Korea Reined In The Outbreak Without Shutting Everything Down

#139

Post by m4rtink » Fri, Mar 27, 2020, 1:46 PM UTC

i_am_proteus wrote: post #124

Kiro wrote: post #115

Earlier quoted context omitted.

How does that work when it's impossible to buy masks anywhere?

A t-shirt or bandana or scarf will make an excellent makeshift mask. This is not the equivalent of an N95 mask that should be used by health care professionals, but is good for ordinary citizens in public.

Yep, especially as the main purpose of the mask is to protect you from potentially infecting others. Asymptomatic carriers are a huge problem for the coronavirus pandemic - people might be spreading it without knowing and might only get ill much later.

By using even a very rudimentary mask, the infected droplets have it much harder to get out to other people and to contaminate surfaces. Also you are less likely to touch your face, so less hand contamination & thus less surface contamination.

Of course this only works if everyone has a mask, but given how easy it is to make simple cloth masks I think this is a fully reasonable requirement.

Re: How South Korea Reined In The Outbreak Without Shutting Everything Down

#140

Post by cyphar » Fri, Mar 27, 2020, 1:55 PM UTC

h91wka wrote: post #132

cyphar wrote: post #64

Earlier quoted context omitted.

This was a coordinated (dare I say "propaganda") campaign by US and other government officials in order to try to avoid mask shortages[1]. A noble goal, sure -- but the net result is that people are now misinformed about the efficacy of masks. The evidence very much shows that wearing masks can reduce community transmission rates of SARS-like viruses -- up to 70% even with just plain surgical masks[2]. And even if yo…

> This was a coordinated (dare I say "propaganda") campaign by US and other government officials in order to try to avoid mask shortages[1]. A noble goal, sure -- but the net result is that people are now misinformed about the efficacy of masks. There's nothing noble about it. This is extremely short-sighted. What is easier to solve, shortage of masks, or shortage of ICU beds and medical personnel? I would imagine th…

Avoiding mask shortages is a noble goal (note that you're agreeing with me here -- mass-producing masks would also have avoided shortages). Whether or not the method employed was ethical or not is a separate question (and I agree with you that it was not because of how short-sighted it was).