Mass hysteria is making coronavirus worse than it is • Hacker News Board

Re: Mass hysteria is making coronavirus worse than it is

#131

Post by jbd0 » Wed, Mar 04, 2020, 1:11 PM UTC

halfmatthalfcat wrote: post #57

robjan wrote: post #26

Earlier quoted context omitted.

This isn't like the common cold. There have been cases of reinfection reported already.

They are most likely not reinfections. You can still have the virus reproducing in your body, yet have recovered and are no longer spreading it. If you’re in this post-infection period, you’ll still intermittently test positive (especially when your stool is sampled). This is similar to EBV or HIV. These tests (RT-PCR) also aren’t sensitive enough to test whether the virus is alive or dead, they test for the presence…

Viruses are not living things.

Re: Mass hysteria is making coronavirus worse than it is

#132

Post by Ruthalas » Wed, Mar 04, 2020, 2:32 PM UTC

perchecrik wrote: post #84

Did I panic? I don’t know. I began to prepare in early February for the possibility of draconian cordon sanitaire, widespread panic, and the consequent interruption in supply after learning that in Wuhan initial warnings had been suppressed, and mass gatherings permitted during a time the virus was in the population. Because of that head start, and the dramatic R_0 of this bug, I sensed this was no ordinary outbreak.…

Do you have any preparations tips or guides you'd care to share?

Re: Mass hysteria is making coronavirus worse than it is

#133

Post by scott_s » Wed, Mar 04, 2020, 2:39 PM UTC

pc2g4d wrote: post #113

scott_s wrote: post #30

This is a claim from the submitted article with no evidence: > In all likelihood, however, given the one-off infections that are being detected in disparate locations, thousands if not millions have already had mild or asymptomatic SARS-CoV2. An assistance director general and epidemiologist for the WHO, Bruce Aylward, makes the opposite argument in a recent Vox interview ( https://www.vox.com/2020/3/2/21161067/coron…

There is evidence of undetected transmission in Washington State: https://bedford.io/blog/ncov-cryptic-transmission/

That is a different situation, as there is not mass testing in Washington State. There was/is in China. The point of this line of argument is to get an idea if the fatality rate really is 2-3%. When we thought there might be a lot of undiagnosed cases in China, we had reason to suspect the fatality rate is lower than that. But when we systematically tried to find such cases and diagnose them, we could not discover them. That supports the conclusion that the fatality rate really is 2-3%. That people are being infected in Washington, and we don't know how, does not counter what we think is the fatality rate.

Re: Mass hysteria is making coronavirus worse than it is

#134

Post by calvinbhai » Wed, Mar 04, 2020, 2:52 PM UTC

scarmig wrote: post #103

calvinbhai wrote: post #62

For me, the critical pieces of info everyone should consider are these: 1) Washing hands often, significantly reduces chances of getting infected (because virus has a fat membrane that breaks when in contact with soap) 2) If you are under 60 yrs old, covid-19 infection becoming fatal is extremely low, which in turn means, keep older population away from anyone carrying this virus, hence self-quarantine around elders…

2) needs a very key caveat. When you have access to medical care and are under 60 years old, mortality is very low. Even if you're old, access to medical care lowers mortality to less than the oft quoted 2% rate. The issue is that mortality climbs rapidly for all age buckets if you don't have access to medical care. If and when the medical system buckles under load, things get dark very fast.

agreed.

All my points assume access to decent health/medical services

Re: Mass hysteria is making coronavirus worse than it is

#135

Post by irq11 » Wed, Mar 04, 2020, 2:53 PM UTC

scarmig wrote: post #110

irq11 wrote: post #90

Earlier quoted context omitted.

First, the kids are fine. This virus doesn’t really seem to affect children. Second, “worrying” accomplishes nothing. Wash your hands; avoid people when you’re sick. Avoid sick people. Have a couple weeks of groceries on hand if you think quarantine is likely. These are things you should be doing every year during flu season. But I can’t stress this enough: there’s nothing we can be doing, rationally, where we can sh…

There are obvious ways you can exchange economic growth for lower mortality. See: China. Within a month, it will have fewer active cases and daily new cases than the United States. I suspect it will end up endemic, but the rate at which it infects everybody matters, a lot. That rate of new infection changes the load profile for the medical system, and it's when the system is overloaded that mortality skyrockets. Halv…

Slowing down the virus is fine. There is no effective way to do that by hobbling economic growth.

We don’t need quarantines and travel bans and trip cancellations and business shutdowns to slow the virus. These have always been scientifically dubious overreactions. Investing in hospital capacity and contact tracing, on the other hand, makes a lot of sense.

The drastic, economically expensive steps China took didn’t stop the virus from spreading out of (or within) China. Quarantines haven’t been effective anywhere else. There are things we can do to slow the virus, but few of them require massive economic impact.

Re: Mass hysteria is making coronavirus worse than it is

#136

Post by scarmig » Thu, Mar 05, 2020, 12:09 AM UTC

irq11 wrote: post #135

scarmig wrote: post #110

Earlier quoted context omitted.

There are obvious ways you can exchange economic growth for lower mortality. See: China. Within a month, it will have fewer active cases and daily new cases than the United States. I suspect it will end up endemic, but the rate at which it infects everybody matters, a lot. That rate of new infection changes the load profile for the medical system, and it's when the system is overloaded that mortality skyrockets. Halv…

Slowing down the virus is fine. There is no effective way to do that by hobbling economic growth. We don’t need quarantines and travel bans and trip cancellations and business shutdowns to slow the virus. These have always been scientifically dubious overreactions. Investing in hospital capacity and contact tracing, on the other hand, makes a lot of sense. The drastic, economically expensive steps China took didn’t s…

It's categorically false that it didn't stop the virus from spreading within China. Those measures shifted an exponential growth curve to a sublinear one.

Re: Mass hysteria is making coronavirus worse than it is

#137

Post by taylodl » Sat, Mar 07, 2020, 11:24 PM UTC

Der_Einzige wrote: post #101

irq11 wrote: post #90

Earlier quoted context omitted.

First, the kids are fine. This virus doesn’t really seem to affect children. Second, “worrying” accomplishes nothing. Wash your hands; avoid people when you’re sick. Avoid sick people. Have a couple weeks of groceries on hand if you think quarantine is likely. These are things you should be doing every year during flu season. But I can’t stress this enough: there’s nothing we can be doing, rationally, where we can sh…

You could immediately fund the CDC to "absurd" levels, such as by giving them say, 100 billion dollars. I think that would be far more effective than rate cuts which are likely far more "expensive" but won't actually help. Though, I want to see the current CDC leadership out. They should not have silently removed their total tests done. The world needs to see their current incompetence as a lesson.

Honest question - did that come from CDC leadership or from within the White House?