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Bitcoin Bubble Makes Dot-Com Look Rational

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Re: Bitcoin Bubble Makes Dot-Com Look Rational

#131
This article seems to be making the assumption that price-to-rent, price-to-earnings and price-to-transaction-fees ratios should all naturally converge to the same amount.

I don't see any plausible justification for this assumption, in fact it seems like it is trivially disproved. The US dollar has no transaction fees, so it's price-to-transaction-fee ratio is infinite. This whole article is based on a false premise.

Re: Bitcoin Bubble Makes Dot-Com Look Rational

#132
post #25
post #16

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Tulips are on their way back. Let's get in on the ground floor!

you do not understand bitcoin, and thats ok :)

Not so much. I spent a chunk of 2009-2010 hanging around with British bitcoin enthusiasts. It was predicated on greater fools then and it still is.

Re: Bitcoin Bubble Makes Dot-Com Look Rational

#133

Earlier quoted context omitted.

>> Because bitcoin is measurable scarcity one can provable show it’s a good store of wealth One can't, provably, do anything of the sort. You don't understand how Bitcoin and Proof of Work works. The block hash in the following block is a measure of how scarce or rare it was to produce the bitcoins that were minted in this block: https://insight.bitpay.com/block/0000000000000000002c8fe4629... If you don't understand…

If you think that scarcity is sufficient to prove that something is a good store of wealth, I have some paintings, that my children did, that I'm happy to sell you. Hint, you probably don't want them. > Yes literally this is what the BTCUSD price plot is showing you. the ZWDUSD looks the same. So you're equating the current performance of USD with ZWD? Wow, ok. I've changed my mind. I'm more than happy to sell you th…

>If you think that scarcity is sufficient to prove that something is a good store of wealth, I have some paintings, that my children did, that I'm happy to sell you.

Scarcity is literally the only thing that makes goods valuable in a capitalist society. This is basic econ 101. Gold is more valuable than air because it is scarce and hard to produce (mining is the only way to generate it). If you think that an entity, that your children can at their will generate in any quantity is scarce, it means you're confusing uniqueness and scarcity.

If you're certain that bitcoin is doomed to fail, you certainly should be shorting it or selling calls / buying puts above spot price. Are you? You're a fraudster if you advocate a position for which you have no downside exposure in case you're wrong (Doctors who advocate patients to take drugs they haven't assessed the side effects are morally bankrupt).

Feel free to remember this thread in 10 years.

Re: Bitcoin Bubble Makes Dot-Com Look Rational

#134
post #29

Was the collapse of the German Deutsche Mark, the Zimbabwean Dollar, the Venezuelan Bollivar a bubble too? Good money drives bad money out, so I’d argue that no, Bitcoin’s price is not a bubble. Clearly there’s no price that bitcoin holders will sell at so they’re clearly exiting the USD ecosystem. I think the logical fallacy that’s occuring right now with critics of bitcoin’s price rise is that all bubbles has drama…

> Good money drives bad money out what? dude that's some serious misinformation you're spreading here

Have you ever lived in a county that went through hyperinflation and had to use the USD to stabilize prices? It's because it was the best alternative to a high inflation currency. The USD dollar drove bad money out because it was relatively good to their alternative. Now people have a better alternative to the USD, so they are dumping it for something that is relatively good/better to their alternative.

Re: Bitcoin Bubble Makes Dot-Com Look Rational

#135
post #47

Was the collapse of the German Deutsche Mark, the Zimbabwean Dollar, the Venezuelan Bollivar a bubble too? Good money drives bad money out, so I’d argue that no, Bitcoin’s price is not a bubble. Clearly there’s no price that bitcoin holders will sell at so they’re clearly exiting the USD ecosystem. I think the logical fallacy that’s occuring right now with critics of bitcoin’s price rise is that all bubbles has drama…

> Clearly there’s no price that bitcoin holders will sell at so they’re clearly exiting the USD ecosystem This may be true for some idealists, but most people view Bitcoin as an investment and haven't "exited" the USD ecosystem anymore than if they'd bought shares or bonds.

Very true, over time less and less people will move into temporary USD positions.

Re: Bitcoin Bubble Makes Dot-Com Look Rational

#136

Earlier quoted context omitted.

>> It is only worth something because other people say it is worth something That is actually the very definition of most currencies currently in use [1]. Money is actually just a promise that someone will provide you goods or services in exchange for it sometime in the future, it has no intrinsic worth. Also, paper money isn't tied to anything [2] either, let alone the "digital" money we have in the banks. [1] https…

"Fiat" money is backed by enormous sums of debt repayable only in that currency and a tax burden representing a large proportion of GDP payable only in that country, and its supply is kept in balance with demand on a day to day basis by central banks. (And even then, people are entirely justified in worrying that certain currencies will struggle to retain value because their state and central bank are very bad at doi…

Never have seen this so well explained. Alternatively, fiat can be printed. So there is a case for something that is limited, transportable etc. You can always sell your bitcoin to pay the taxes. Is just that the limited comodity would have the tendency to sell for more if the fiat is being printed

Re: Bitcoin Bubble Makes Dot-Com Look Rational

#137

Was the collapse of the German Deutsche Mark, the Zimbabwean Dollar, the Venezuelan Bollivar a bubble too? Good money drives bad money out, so I’d argue that no, Bitcoin’s price is not a bubble. Clearly there’s no price that bitcoin holders will sell at so they’re clearly exiting the USD ecosystem. I think the logical fallacy that’s occuring right now with critics of bitcoin’s price rise is that all bubbles has drama…

Bitcoin has scarcity, but so does Litecoin or Bitcoin Cash What makes Bitcoin special?

Right now (it would be possible to change) Bitcoin is more provably scarce than litecoin or bcash.

https://fork.lol/pow/difficulty

Bitcoin is 7X scarcer than bcash.

Re: Bitcoin Bubble Makes Dot-Com Look Rational

#138
post #10

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Personally I wonder if the rise in Bitcoin could be linked to Russian sanctions like the Magninsky act? Could now blacklisted Oligarchs who were previously using western financial institutions to launder their money now be using Bitcoin instead?

it would probably be a much bigger run up if they did > From what i have heard anyway the best way to do that through bitcoin is to pay someone to mine it. That way you get new "clean" coins.

That makes a lot of sense, that way the person is also running a business etc also
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