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Bitcoin Bubble Makes Dot-Com Look Rational

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Re: Bitcoin Bubble Makes Dot-Com Look Rational

#91

Post by notahacker »

lemondrops wrote: post #52
tobyhinloopen wrote: post #13

Earlier quoted context omitted.

How do I know what? That it will crash and burn? Because it is a useless resource. It is only worth something because other people say it is worth something, and unlike paper money it is not backed by anything significant. It is a bubble of hot air, ready to pop at any time. It might continue rising for years or decades. But it is not usable as a real currency, so it will always remain a useless waste of resources. T…

>> It is only worth something because other people say it is worth something That is actually the very definition of most currencies currently in use [1]. Money is actually just a promise that someone will provide you goods or services in exchange for it sometime in the future, it has no intrinsic worth. Also, paper money isn't tied to anything [2] either, let alone the "digital" money we have in the banks. [1] https…

"Fiat" money is backed by enormous sums of debt repayable only in that currency and a tax burden representing a large proportion of GDP payable only in that country, and its supply is kept in balance with demand on a day to day basis by central banks. (And even then, people are entirely justified in worrying that certain currencies will struggle to retain value because their state and central bank are very bad at doing the latter jobs) So it's basically backed by years' worth of guaranteed future demand to obtain that currency from people who will therefore be willing to provide goods and services in return.

Bitcoin is backed by optimism.

Re: Bitcoin Bubble Makes Dot-Com Look Rational

#92

Post by empath75 »

rejschaap wrote: post #3

Bitcoin could hit $10.000 any moment now. Who is buying and why?

If you go to bitcoinity and check the price of bitcoin, the first exchange they list is bitfinex. The price they list is in USD. That’s actually wrong. There are no dollars on bitfinex. They use a currency called tethers which they claim is backed 1-1 by dollars but almost certainly isn’t. They’ve created close to a billion dollars worth of that token during this run up.

Rumor has it that they’re using those tethers to buy btc on their own exchange and manipulate the price.

Once people realize those tethers are worthless and they can’t withdraw dollars, they’ll start using them to buy btc at any price and withdraw them on the exchange causing a massive run up in btc price as they make a run on the bank. It’s not really an increase in btc price but hyperinflation of tethers.

Re: Bitcoin Bubble Makes Dot-Com Look Rational

#93

Post by alex_young »

andy_ppp wrote: post #86
AznHisoka wrote: post #67

Earlier quoted context omitted.

How about the "E" in non dividend stocks? How does owning 1% of Amazon entitle me to 1% of their earnings?

I thought because E is reinvested in a high growth company (Amazon in this case) your potential E is actually multiplied by that reinvestment.

'E' here is really hypothetical future earnings. Some investors think that Amazon can raise prices and become profitable after creating the walled garden. Right now they only make money renting time on servers.

Re: Bitcoin Bubble Makes Dot-Com Look Rational

#94

Post by pc86 »

charlesdm wrote: post #61
beaconstudios wrote: post #54

Earlier quoted context omitted.

also the fact that 99% of bitcoin's value is tied up in financial speculation rather than real world use cases, and the remaining 1% is drug dealing.

Gold has close to no use cases (80%+ is store of wealth) and seems to be doing fine at an $8tn global market cap. Of the potential 21m Bitcoin in existence, 4m are assumed to have been permanently lose. 16m have been mined. That leaves 1m coins left to be acquired in the future.

Is there a timeframe for how long it will take for those 1m coins to be mined? Is it equally likely that the price craters or skyrockets once that happens?

Re: Bitcoin Bubble Makes Dot-Com Look Rational

#95

Post by nuclx »

Tepix wrote: post #60
pmorici wrote: post #31

Here is a chart of transaction volume on several of the major crypto currencies... https://bitinfocharts.com/comparison/transactions-btc-eth-bc... Anyone see a trend...

Yup. Bitcoin transactions have stagnated for the last year or so. https://bitinfocharts.com/comparison/transactions-btc-eth-bc...

Might be due to the fact that the amount of transactions is capped.

Re: Bitcoin Bubble Makes Dot-Com Look Rational

#96

Post by NicoJuicy »

I just went out after a long time. Banks are coming in and i don't trust them. They are smarter then me. I took out my profits and i'm doing stocks since a 1/2th year, i'm focusing on that now.

Here my reasoning:

1) BTC takes too long to make a transaction ( 2,5 hours) which make me kinda doubt the use case.

2) the enterprise is adopting the blockchain, which is irrelevant to bitcoin. If they would do crypto, they will create their own coin.

3) the guy further in the street is also buying crypto ( not in IT). Which for me, is a sign of a bubble. He knows nothing about the tech. It won't ever be used for the original porpose at this valuation.

4) First time adopters are going out now @ 10 k., check out reddit: https://www.reddit.com/r/Bitcoin/

5) The HODL meme is currently blocking the bubble to burst. Some people are willing to HODL even when 75% fades away. PS. Banks won't adopt the HODL meme :)

I have second doubts though, it truelly is an amazing tech.

Re: Bitcoin Bubble Makes Dot-Com Look Rational

#97

Post by bmking »

criddell wrote: post #33
charlesdm wrote: post #24

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It's (looking like it's turning out to become) digital gold. When is the last time you bought a family dinner with gold?

I wonder how the environmental impact of mining gold compares to mining bitcoin?

Pollution from Gold mining: https://sciencing.com/types-pollution-generated-gold-mining-...

A very rough estimate: World wide Bitcoin mining operation spends per year around 60% as much electricity as all of USA's bank offices: https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=15615601

With Bitcoin mining there is a high incentive to actually use renewable energy sources and could be physically outsourced to places where building green power plants is otherwise not practical due to the limits of creating a power grid to make such a power plant profitable.

Re: Bitcoin Bubble Makes Dot-Com Look Rational

#98

Post by pmorici »

Tepix wrote: post #60
pmorici wrote: post #31

Here is a chart of transaction volume on several of the major crypto currencies... https://bitinfocharts.com/comparison/transactions-btc-eth-bc... Anyone see a trend...

Yup. Bitcoin transactions have stagnated for the last year or so. https://bitinfocharts.com/comparison/transactions-btc-eth-bc...

Bingo.

Re: Bitcoin Bubble Makes Dot-Com Look Rational

#99

Post by notahacker »

0bsidian wrote: post #37
kwikiel wrote: post #27

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Network effect - same thing for Facebook. The more valuable bitcoin is the more secure and more resilient. Thus purely by price appreciation bitcoin is doing hiperbitcoinization - once people realize that fundamental value of fiat currency is a myth, more fiat currencies will collapse

This is exactly right. If you create a company and copy Facebook's code, the resulting company will not be worth as much as Facebook. Why? Because much of Facebooks' valuation derives from its network. Bitcoin is the same.

The problem with being by design a fungible commodity is that your network lock-in isn't anywhere near as strong as Facebook's. Or AOL's...

Re: Bitcoin Bubble Makes Dot-Com Look Rational

#100

Post by Chriky »

leereeves wrote: post #78
charlesdm wrote: post #74

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The internet needs a worldwide network of specialised computers to continue operating. I bet it won't be very useful anymore once we turn those off.

People use the Internet for a lot more than speculation. What do people use BTC for other than speculation?

Buying drugs, money laundering, and ransomware
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