How 'Advantage Players' Game the Casinos • Hacker News Board

Re: How 'Advantage Players' Game the Casinos

#131

Post by ccostes » Sun, Jul 03, 2016, 1:48 PM UTC

dharmon wrote: post #120

ccostes wrote: post #117

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Curious if you can share any more about your approach to fundamental investing. What stage/size companies do you focus on and how do you find an edge? I looked into fundamental investing for a while but came away with the impression that you're trying to guess what the consensus of the market will be rather than finding some "right" answer. ie you can think the price should be x but if nobody else will buy/sell at x…

Sure. I agree that in the short-term (daily, weekly, even monthly) it's largely random, or at least effectively random, as in its no use trying to predict it. My starting point is what I call the Fundamental Theory of Value Investing, the well-known belief that price eventually reflects value. Or, rather, they tend to move in tandem. You can't really prove this, but it has been observed empirically. Really internaliz…

Definitely interested in continuing the discussion. My email is in my profile, otherwise I'm not sure where you want to take it offline (just realized HN doesn't have private messaging).

Re: How 'Advantage Players' Game the Casinos

#132

Post by eru » Mon, Jul 04, 2016, 7:23 AM UTC

alkonaut wrote: post #109

s_q_b wrote: post #10

Earlier quoted context omitted.

They will toss you out on your ass for any systemic card counting that actually works, especially the newer blinded player methods.

I never understood why card counting was frowned upon? I realize they don't like players to have an edge, and they can throw out whoever they want for whatever reason, but I don't understand why they bother with that type of surveillance? Shouldn't a casino instead just use shuffling machines, have limited spread between min/max bets, and not play very deep (e.g 6 of 12 decks) to just nullify any possible counting ed…

Casinos like card counting. They just don't like you to be good at it.

(Card counting done slightly wrong loses you more money in black jack faster than just following the table of optimal play.)

Re: How 'Advantage Players' Game the Casinos

#133

Post by eru » Mon, Jul 04, 2016, 7:27 AM UTC

alasdair_ wrote: post #129

abduhl wrote: post #94

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Martingale systems definitely do not cause casino owners to "lose substantially" - the bettor cannot match the casino's bankroll and any amount of money won back after the first bet increase is actually the bettor's. The casino can afford to let you double because they are only ever putting the original amount bet at risk.

It could only happen if the tables had a ridiculous limit which almost never happens. If it did, I could see a few billionaires grouping together to be able to bankrupt almost any casino by betting a billion on black instead of red.

Couldn't the casino buy insurance from some other billionaires?

Re: How 'Advantage Players' Game the Casinos

#134

Post by spoinkaroo » Mon, Jul 04, 2016, 8:32 PM UTC

dharmon wrote: post #130

jacquesm wrote: post #122

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It's super interesting and collapse threads is in beta so please?

If you have some specific follow-up questions I'd be more than glad to answer. A general overview could get pretty lengthy. :)

I'd be very interested in reading it if you decide to post it somewhere. I'm working on honing my own skills by reading a lot of books, through my main portfolio, and various paper portfolios.

Do you primarily manage your own money?

How difficult is it to achieve long term advantages over indexing?