How 'Advantage Players' Game the Casinos • Hacker News Board

Re: How 'Advantage Players' Game the Casinos

#111

Post by mysterypie » Sat, Jul 02, 2016, 2:57 PM UTC

chillydawg wrote: post #104

mattmaroon wrote: post #91

Earlier quoted context omitted.

If you're good, you get comped a lot more than swanky rooms. A friend of mine has done this for a couple decades. He gets comped cars. Nice ones. He sells them. He's always selling stuff like $1,000 Saks gift certs online. He gets what they call RFB (room, food, and beverage) out the wazoo. He's drank more expensive wine that most sommeliers. At one point it was hard to find an expensive restaurant in Vegas I hadn't…

If he's "good", he must win money. If he wins money, the casino loses. If the casino loses, why on earth would they comp him anything beyond the first couple of times he turns up? Sorry, but I don't believe you. Either your friend has a chronic gambling addiction and is filthy rich and the casinos love him as he's a walking ATM, or he or you is talking nonsense.

> If the casino loses, why on earth would they comp him anything beyond the first couple of times he turns up?

Because there are inefficiencies in how the casinos comp players just as there are inefficiencies in the games themselves?

Example from another industry:

In the 1990s, I flew cross country many times and racked up 5000 air miles round trip each time. Every 15 round trips, I'd cash in my air miles for a free international flight. The airlines loved me as walking ATM and were rewarding a big spender like me. Makes sense?

But guess what: All of my flight were the absolute cheapest economy class flights I could get. I had the luxury of booking my flights well in advance, and I'd tolerate bad connections to get the lowest price. A business class passenger would have paid 10 times what I paid, yet he and I would both get the same 5000 air miles.

The airlines certainly knew how much I had paid. Why were they rewarding me the same amount as the far more profitable business class passenger? As far as know, it is an inefficiency in the system (which seems to have been corrected by the airline industry in recent years).

Re: How 'Advantage Players' Game the Casinos

#112

Post by enraged_camel » Sat, Jul 02, 2016, 3:39 PM UTC

chillydawg wrote: post #104

mattmaroon wrote: post #91

Earlier quoted context omitted.

If you're good, you get comped a lot more than swanky rooms. A friend of mine has done this for a couple decades. He gets comped cars. Nice ones. He sells them. He's always selling stuff like $1,000 Saks gift certs online. He gets what they call RFB (room, food, and beverage) out the wazoo. He's drank more expensive wine that most sommeliers. At one point it was hard to find an expensive restaurant in Vegas I hadn't…

If he's "good", he must win money. If he wins money, the casino loses. If the casino loses, why on earth would they comp him anything beyond the first couple of times he turns up? Sorry, but I don't believe you. Either your friend has a chronic gambling addiction and is filthy rich and the casinos love him as he's a walking ATM, or he or you is talking nonsense.

It's poker. You aren't playing against the house. You're playing against other players. And the house always gets a cut from the overall proceeds (so the higher the stakes, the higher the cut).

Re: How 'Advantage Players' Game the Casinos

#113

Post by JoeAltmaier » Sat, Jul 02, 2016, 3:47 PM UTC

function_seven wrote: post #85

JoeAltmaier wrote: post #54

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Most of those do constitute "not knowing how to add up a list of numbers". Checking your balance before writing a check is not sufficient, as the examples demonstrate. This is almost a perfect example of 'bad faith' e.g. the check writer isn't diligently accounting for all of their expenses. What you 'mean' to do doesn't matter. Writing more checks than there are deposits to cover, is bad faith.

"Bad faith" means something different than you think it does. It's a willful intent to deceive. It does not cover negligence or carelessness. I bounced a rent check once. I had forgotten another large check I had written 3 weeks prior, and it got to my account before the rent check did. I wrote both checks in good faith, but failed to do the proper accounting in my ledger.

Compare "Good Faith" that requires a reasonable standard of fair dealing. That would include, adding up a list of numbers before writing a bad check. Its not just negligence when you never had any intention of being diligent. Its willfully ignoring a minimal standard of managing money - adding it up.

If the only defence against the bad check is "I kind of thought I probably had enough money in the account", then that was bad faith - no reasonable standard was achieved.

Re: How 'Advantage Players' Game the Casinos

#114

Post by pmarreck » Sat, Jul 02, 2016, 4:09 PM UTC

chillydawg wrote: post #103

llamataboot wrote: post #52

Earlier quoted context omitted.

There were also plenty of shady operations in those days. I seem to remember some online gaming authorities were particularly bad about not vetting their casino operators. One time we found a casino that had a game (I forget what it was, maybe a video poker variant?) that had a HUGE (5% or so?) player edge when played optimally because of an incorrect payout structure. That casino was blasted with players betting hug…

Sounds like a pretty great scam to me. Open a casino with a "broken" game in an easy regulatory jurisdiction (lots of these, most of them are in places with beaches, too), wait for the vultures to descend with their millions in illegal deposits routed from the US via various dodgy places and then just disappear knowing there is virtually no legal recourse for the people who lost money.

I call this "Plan C" (for criminal)

Re: How 'Advantage Players' Game the Casinos

#115

Post by treme » Sat, Jul 02, 2016, 5:10 PM UTC

simonswords82 wrote: post #55

llamataboot wrote: post #46

I used advantage gambling to help put myself through grad school during the first online casino boom. There were so many casinos vying for players, that many offered a bonus -- say $500 extra to play with if you deposit $500. Of course that $500 had a playthrough requirement -- you may have to wager a total of 20x that to withdraw -- so $10,000. Now you simply find a casino that has a game with odds that beat the pla…

> the best description of playing poker professionally that I ever heard was that it was like playing a game of chess for $1, then flipping a coin for $100. In the long run that chess game is the only thing that matters, but in the short run those coin flips can be brutal Great quote! What books or online resources would you recommend for getting better at poker? Not looking to play professional but do enjoy the game…

runitonce.com has the best content & community atm. the 10$/mo membership should give you a buffet on poker content appropriate for your level.

Re: How 'Advantage Players' Game the Casinos

#116

Post by TaroAnami » Sat, Jul 02, 2016, 5:20 PM UTC

llamataboot wrote: post #46

I used advantage gambling to help put myself through grad school during the first online casino boom. There were so many casinos vying for players, that many offered a bonus -- say $500 extra to play with if you deposit $500. Of course that $500 had a playthrough requirement -- you may have to wager a total of 20x that to withdraw -- so $10,000. Now you simply find a casino that has a game with odds that beat the pla…

The "advantage gamblers' forum"... was it the one from gamblers-united.com? Can I please have an invite? I beg.

Re: How 'Advantage Players' Game the Casinos

#117

Post by ccostes » Sat, Jul 02, 2016, 5:23 PM UTC

dharmon wrote: post #86

llamataboot wrote: post #83

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Depends on your definition of money I guess. At my peak before I moved to heads-up I was playing about 4-8 tables of 10/20 shorthanded at a time and averaging about 1.5 BB/100 hands after the rake. 4-8 tables online is about 400 hands an hour so that's a take of approximately $120/hour. Granted they were grueling hours and no way could you really do 8 in a day. I could make more contracting programming now I guess, b…

Yeah, I figured the best I would ever do was around $100k / year, and with a huge time commitment. I would not recommend day trading either. A long time ago you could find arbitrage opportunities, but those have been essentially squashed out for quite some time. I have seen technical traders who claim to have a read on things, but to be honest I don't see it. (There are a number of long-term successful commodity trad…

Curious if you can share any more about your approach to fundamental investing. What stage/size companies do you focus on and how do you find an edge?

I looked into fundamental investing for a while but came away with the impression that you're trying to guess what the consensus of the market will be rather than finding some "right" answer. ie you can think the price should be x but if nobody else will buy/sell at x then you're wrong.

I've instead been subscribing to the notion that price movement can be thought of as random and selling option premium accordingly (the whole tastytrade mantra) but haven't been super successful and would be interested in hearing other approaches.

Re: How 'Advantage Players' Game the Casinos

#118

Post by jonknee » Sat, Jul 02, 2016, 5:40 PM UTC

cperciva wrote: post #27

olalonde wrote: post #24

> illegal for dice to determine financial outcomes in games of chance That's pretty odd, anyone knows why that is?

Weighted dice. Go back a century and it's much easier to ban gambling using dice than it is to ensure that the games are fair.

Or it was a [poor] way to try and ban certain types of gambling while allowing others.

Re: How 'Advantage Players' Game the Casinos

#119

Post by Mikeb85 » Sat, Jul 02, 2016, 6:23 PM UTC

chillydawg wrote: post #104

mattmaroon wrote: post #91

Earlier quoted context omitted.

If you're good, you get comped a lot more than swanky rooms. A friend of mine has done this for a couple decades. He gets comped cars. Nice ones. He sells them. He's always selling stuff like $1,000 Saks gift certs online. He gets what they call RFB (room, food, and beverage) out the wazoo. He's drank more expensive wine that most sommeliers. At one point it was hard to find an expensive restaurant in Vegas I hadn't…

If he's "good", he must win money. If he wins money, the casino loses. If the casino loses, why on earth would they comp him anything beyond the first couple of times he turns up? Sorry, but I don't believe you. Either your friend has a chronic gambling addiction and is filthy rich and the casinos love him as he's a walking ATM, or he or you is talking nonsense.

Most career gamblers are making money in poker. In big money games, you play against other players and the house takes a rake. If players have stacks in the millions (which they do), the rake is pretty damn big. Not to mention, players will win a million in poker, then go play Baccarat or something. Gamblers don't gamble just to make money...

Re: How 'Advantage Players' Game the Casinos

#120

Post by dharmon » Sat, Jul 02, 2016, 7:03 PM UTC

ccostes wrote: post #117

dharmon wrote: post #86

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Yeah, I figured the best I would ever do was around $100k / year, and with a huge time commitment. I would not recommend day trading either. A long time ago you could find arbitrage opportunities, but those have been essentially squashed out for quite some time. I have seen technical traders who claim to have a read on things, but to be honest I don't see it. (There are a number of long-term successful commodity trad…

Curious if you can share any more about your approach to fundamental investing. What stage/size companies do you focus on and how do you find an edge? I looked into fundamental investing for a while but came away with the impression that you're trying to guess what the consensus of the market will be rather than finding some "right" answer. ie you can think the price should be x but if nobody else will buy/sell at x…

Sure. I agree that in the short-term (daily, weekly, even monthly) it's largely random, or at least effectively random, as in its no use trying to predict it.

My starting point is what I call the Fundamental Theory of Value Investing, the well-known belief that price eventually reflects value. Or, rather, they tend to move in tandem. You can't really prove this, but it has been observed empirically. Really internalizing this is important for sleeping well during volatile times. :)

So that means you need to find places where price doesn't currently reflect value. There's the usual list of places to look where the big players can't go, including micro and nano cap companies, low-priced companies, companies not followed by analysts, troubled companies, 52-week low companies, spin-offs, etc.

As far as fundamentals, I like reliable FCF, or better yet, what Buffett calls "owner's earnings" (slight difference from FCF). "Reliable" being a key word, and where experience and clear thinking are important. I spend 90% of my research time looking for things that will threaten cash flows.

I stay away from growth companies. The market just bids them up way too high. FB may be a wonderful company, but the current price is priced for perfection; any slip-up and down it'll go. Everybody is chasing growth, and institutional investors want to tell their LPs that they are in on the hot thing, so they buy in at any price.

You can't know the exact probabilities and odds, so the most reliable way to make money is to buy good earnings for cheap, check your downside very carefully, and let the upside take care of itself. Obviously there's a million variations on this, but they all generally require going against some consensus, which can require testicular/ovarian fortitude. For me, the most common thesis is of the form, "this too shall pass". Some sort of temporary disruption that doesn't permanently harm the business. Sometimes the dust settles in a quarter, sometimes 3 years. If I start getting a clue that I was wrong in my analysis, I get out.

I can go in more detail if you want but maybe should take it offline as people here to read about casino betting may not want their thread cluttered with this stuff. :)