131–140 of 276 posts
Earlier quoted context omitted.
It's okay to pick on me, I wrote the comment without putting a lot of context in it. I usually stick to trading commodities, not equities. My comment really was saying, "I believe that tech startups have significant headwinds, poor underlying fundamentals, and would like a simple way to capture the profits from trades made around those assumptions."
Unfortunately, the market can stay irrational longer than you can stay solvent.
Earlier quoted context omitted.
Their lock-in is their network effects. Airbnb has a huge selection of locations in many major cities around the world. Uber has an incredible number of drivers and riders on the system globally at all times of the day. Competitors will have a very hard time replicating that.
airbnb has a real problem: VRBO. VRBO is routinely cheaper than airbnb, has been around longer, and doesn't have the legal issues, and has the support of the baby boomers. Good luck, airbnb.
AirBnb raised $1b last year, projecting 2015 revenues at $900m [0]. Until financials show otherwise, they appear to be doing just fine.
[0]: http://www.wsj.com/articles/the-secret-math-of-airbnbs-24-bi...
Earlier quoted context omitted.
They have very clear business models, but even if they capture 100% of their market the possible revenue can’t support their current valuations. I think both these businesses are fantastic businesses that will make a lot of money, but I would not buy at their current valuations.
What? AirBnB's valuation is 25B. It could make a trivial dent in the worldwide hotel market and crush that valuation many times over. Uber is 50B. The global taxi market alone is worth many multiples of 50B, and that's not counting all the delivery services, bus/public transit-replacements etc that Uber is pushing for. I'm not saying these companies WILL capture all of their current markets, but it's ridiculous to sa…
"For instance, there seems to be a consensus that the most lucrative cab market in the world is in Japan, where yearly revenues are estimated to be about $20 billion to $25 billion just in Tokyo, followed by the United Kingdom with revenues of $14 billion, the bulk from London, and the U.S. with $11 billion overall and about $3 billion in New York. Assuming taxi revenues in the rest of the world add another $50 billion to this total, I arrive at a total market of $100 billion."
http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/uber-isnt-worth-17-billi...
Earlier quoted context omitted.
The annual revenue for taxis in SF was ~$100MM. Uber's annual SF revenue is estimated to be $500MM. So Uber has "captured" 500% of the market. Does that explain their valuation? They're not trying to capture an old market, they're building a new one.
Do you really believe that Uber is capturing $500 million out of SF alone? This number is totally unbelievable (and unverifiable), but even if it were true where is the evidence that this is not the result of a pathologically defective taxi market in SF. edit. The comments on this story sum up the ludicrous nature of this $500 million dollar revenue [1] - $625 per person per year! 1. http://sfist.com/2015/01/19/uber_…
I never incur surge pricing and infrequently take Uber yet I can easily pay $100-200 in Uber costs per month. Then you factor in the non-UberX options that are way more expensive, UberEATS, etc. etc...
Earlier quoted context omitted.
I highly doubt this will be happening to the likes of Uber or AirBNB anytime soon, for one Travis Kalanik is one of the brightest guys on the planet and relentless in his efforts, much like Jobs in his prime. AirBNB will face more challenges but the amount of monetary funds it collects in transactions and fee's it is collecting will keep it at the top for a long long time. Anytime a company puts money back into the h…
AirBNB (and Uber) don't own or control any of the property that they are collecting transactions and fees on. They rely on extraction of value from independent contractors; if a viable alternative exists, those contractors can dump them in seconds (or however long it takes to download the alternative app/website).
Earlier quoted context omitted.
airbnb has a real problem: VRBO. VRBO is routinely cheaper than airbnb, has been around longer, and doesn't have the legal issues, and has the support of the baby boomers. Good luck, airbnb.
Have you ever tried to rent from VRBO? I did a couple years ago and have never been back. Approx 30 calls, 6 or 7 responded, a couple of those hadn't kept their calendars up-to-date, and only 2 actually were available and matched the info on the site. I was doing my best to spend $6k on a ski vacation and vrbo just didn't want to cooperate. The whole thing was a giant waste of time.
Would recommend using http://www.homeaway.com (parent company of VRBO) instead - has same inventory but better interface.
The lockup agreement expired. Looks like employees and executives are selling up big time. http://www.marketwatch.com/story/etsy-shares-fall-after-expi...
Earlier quoted context omitted.
I realized that I'm not sure what Yahoo actually does these days. So I looked at their website, and...I still have no idea. Their homepage is set up like a sketchy news aggregator. Wikipedia says they do a list of things (mail, video sharing, online mapping...) that Google and others obviously completely dominate. As a side effect, I'm recalling the days when Yahoo was a directory of websites, and getting nostalgic f…
They own stuff. Like Flickr and Tumblr.
Earlier quoted context omitted.
Facebook: $38.23 to $94.97 (May '12 - present) [0] Wayfair: $32.18 to $37.81 (Oct '14 - present)[1] TripAdvisor: $27.91 to $70.63 (Dec '11 - Present)[2] Hubspot: $29.05 to $50.04 (Oct '14 - Present) [3] Tesla: $10.40 to $204.99 (Jul '10 - Present ) [4] ZenDesk: $15.25 to $23.10 (May '14 - Present) [5] LinkedIn: $90.09 to $196.10 (May '11 - Present) [6] 0: https://www.google.com/finance?q=facebook&ei=OGyZVsiyEYqNmAG..…
Cherrypicked vs. cherrypicked. The only way to settle this is for someone to make a weighted index of tech IPOs in the last n years.
Earlier quoted context omitted.
What? AirBnB's valuation is 25B. It could make a trivial dent in the worldwide hotel market and crush that valuation many times over. Uber is 50B. The global taxi market alone is worth many multiples of 50B, and that's not counting all the delivery services, bus/public transit-replacements etc that Uber is pushing for. I'm not saying these companies WILL capture all of their current markets, but it's ridiculous to sa…
Many multiples? Try two to three, currently. "For instance, there seems to be a consensus that the most lucrative cab market in the world is in Japan, where yearly revenues are estimated to be about $20 billion to $25 billion just in Tokyo, followed by the United Kingdom with revenues of $14 billion, the bulk from London, and the U.S. with $11 billion overall and about $3 billion in New York. Assuming taxi revenues i…
You might as well pretend AirBnB is only trying to capture the hotel market's value. When in fact they're vastly expanding upon it while simultaneously taking market share away from hotels.