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Virtual Reality is going to change the world

notch.net

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Re: Virtual Reality is going to change the world

#121

Post by clef »

mcphage wrote: post #77
smacktoward wrote: post #27

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> And I did not chip in ten grand to seed a first investment round to build value for a Facebook acquisition He really puts his finger on one of the reasons why this deal feels so weird here, I think. Nobody who contributed to the Oculus Kickstarter did so because they were hoping Oculus would get flipped to a mega-corp. They didn't do so because they wanted the Oculus team to have a big, splashy VC-style exit. They…

> Everybody wins in this deal -- except the people who donated to the Kickstarter. Those folks... well, they kind of end up looking like suckers. It's kinda a twist to the normal Kickstarter warnings—if you back a product, it might not ever succeed, jut disappear. This was a product that people backed, that was too successful, and looks like it's about to disappear.

Unfortunately there is a difference between "backer" and "investor", even if they both chuck money in the project. Would there be such a thing as a kickstarted kind of thing where backers can become shareholders? Or could this simply be a case of "if you invest 10 grand, you get x shares"? This way there could be a way for investors not to ride on the back of backers later on? Or am I being totally silly?

Re: Virtual Reality is going to change the world

#122

Post by hrktb »

xpose2000 wrote: post #3

I can see the avalanche of negativity coming, and I understand why. However, I don't think we should automatically assume it's a negative thing like Notch did. Facebook can try to ensure that the games are geared towards social interactivity that benefits their platform, but in the end, the developers truly pick the direction. Anyone can buy a dev kit and see what they can build with it. Maybe Facebook wants Oculus R…

> Think about when Microsoft got into gaming and created Xbox. Now imagine if they didn't.

Kinect would have been developed independently and be sold the same way the leap motion controller is sold today, and console and game makers would have licensed it instead. Not so bad I think.

Re: Virtual Reality is going to change the world

#123

Post by justincormack »

jsilence wrote: post #119
nostromo wrote: post #69

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I think you're exactly right. Look at 3d television: they aren't selling. People don't want to wear glasses just to watch a movie. Which is why Google is focusing on AR not VR. The use cases for AR seem more immediately obvious and valuable to a mainstream audience. VR's killer use case is gaming. This is why I'm sad about this acquisition. Zuck's post about VR being the future of social seemed way off base. First, g…

"I think you're exactly right. Look at 3d television: they aren't selling. People don't want to wear glasses just to watch a movie." For me, 3D does nothing to get more immersed into the story. Frankly most of the 3D movies suck. Weak plots sprinkled with in your face 3D effects. Booooring. It is about the plot and the acting. The content, not the form. Look at Hitchcocks movies. Would adding 3D do anything for them?…

Not sure how many people even saw Dial M for Murder in 3D as 3D was pretty much over by when it was released.

People don't remember the first VR boom either.

Re: Virtual Reality is going to change the world

#124

Post by thedudemabry »

nitrogen wrote: post #107
joelrunyon wrote: post #103

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Disney picked up pixar and didn't screw it up (too) much.

I've wondered whether Pixar would have ventured into making more grown-up movies if they hadn't been bought by Disney (not that I don't enjoy their current stuff, even as an adult).

A very good point. Pixar is notably a huge fan of Ghibli studios, which has ventured into less child-friendly fare in the past. But they have always been a big proponent of universal stories, stories which do not demean children nor sacrifice their integrity to subtextually cater to adults. I would bet that they would be making the same movies that they are now, but Disney would not have released Frozen (as a childless 20-something duder, I was absolutely ecstatic watching that old-style Disney musical.)

Re: Virtual Reality is going to change the world

#125

Post by jcrites »

ekianjo wrote: post #101
wernercd wrote: post #95

Earlier quoted context omitted.

We are far? Really? 15 years ago, how far were we from having a 6 inch super computer in my pocket that can communicate immediately with anyone in the world? A choice of a million apps? Music on demand? Movies? All in a touch screen device? And Palm/BB/MS are bit players? If we get there? not if... when. Maybe not next year, but you have to be BLIND if you can't see how far CELL PHONES have come in 5, 10, 15, 20 year…

Yeah, we are far from what was refered to in my answer : > What about when the device is $20 instead of $400? When it doesn't make you nauseous? When it's so close to face-to-face contact that you can replace 10 or 20 percent of your business travel? We are FAR from having a very cheap VR solution. The VR gear is likely to be 300 or 400+ USD for a while and that will prevent mainstream adoption because it's a periphe…

This is largely a tangential question but ...

> we are far from photo realistic human representations on screen, let alone VR.

Would we actually need to simulate human representations in order for it to be photorealistic? For example, what if your VR headset displays information consumed from a set of stereoscopic cameras?

There would be a lot of complications. (Won't the other guy also be wearing a VR headset, thus obscuring the cameras? Though not necessarily if it's one-directional)

Imagine a VR conversation with another person who's in front of a stereo camera. You can't move your headset much, but you can tilt and pan slightly - basically stay in place and move your head. Imagine combining the VR technology with 3d scene reconstruction such as: http://petapixel.com/2013/07/24/researchers-reconstruct-high... - performed in realtime using the stereo camera. It could potentially present a fairly convincing VR experience of speaking with them in person.

(I assume that you need to perform scene reconstruction in order to generate a display according to the user's head movements in his VR headset given that the camera can't track and mimic the movement in realtime.)

Re: Virtual Reality is going to change the world

#126

Post by eli_gottlieb »

bloaf wrote: post #94
weixiyen wrote: post #86

Earlier quoted context omitted.

You're going to read this in 10 years and look like the guy who predicted the iPhone to be a flop. Usable VR is absolutely world-changing.

Some people predict that the instant we have complete VR, all human progress will cease. We will have no reason to seek new experiences in the real world because we can simulate any experience we want in the virtual world.

That's bunk. Most people don't care about fake experiences.

Re: Virtual Reality is going to change the world

#127

Post by thedudemabry »

jrochkind1 wrote: post #93
calbear81 wrote: post #87

Earlier quoted context omitted.

How is pre-ordering not just a form of fundraising on Kickstarter that skirts the laws around crowsourced investing? Couldn't a startup just go on Kickstarter, promise some type of product to be delivered x months in the future, raise their seed and focus on getting bought w/o ever having to give up any equity?

Skirts the laws around crowd-sourced investing? If it had been 'investing', the funders would have gotten a piece of facebook's two billion acquisition bucks, right? That's what investing means, right? As you mention, "without having to give up any equity." I think kickstarter funders on technology projects are frequently suckers, but it's not got a lot to do with 'skirting the laws around crowdsourced investing'.

Agreed. This is a "gamble to win a product that you want" game, not a "gamble to win a stake in a company that you like" game. The very product-based focus of the transaction is intended to discourage thinking of it as an investment. I think Notch was perfectly reasonable in his analysis. He got the product that he wanted, but was disappointed that their tactics after fulfillment were to cash out and align their direction with Facebook's. And he doesn't trust facebook.

Re: Virtual Reality is going to change the world

#128

Post by ekianjo »

anigbrowl wrote: post #97
ekianjo wrote: post #70

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> He is right - "social", especially in the way Facebook is doing it at the moment, is terrible for VR. Terrible for any technology that has such an incredible potential to change the world. It's not just that. VR is not going to be a product that appeals to masses. I don't think it will change the world. It could impact the world of gaming, potentially, and only CERTAIN areas of gaming only. There are several reason…

Headphones were a niche product for a certain sort of music lover until the invention of the Walkman, now everyone has a pair. Obviously VR goggles are a bit different since you can't (safely) walk around wearing a pair, but imagine them in a Google Glass like package or with optical nerve transducers. Today's hardcore gamer is tomorrow's prosumer, is the day after's average consumer.

Excuse me but the cost of producing stereo sound and the cost of producing stereo 3D world in fullHD on each eye has really nothing to do with each other. Cheap speakers are easy to make, cheap VR sets and cheap equipment to produce good enough VR is nowhere near available at a cheap price.

Re: Virtual Reality is going to change the world

#129

Post by thedudemabry »

frandroid wrote: post #114
samstave wrote: post #81

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Personally, I think this illustrates a severe gap in how crowd-funding works. 10K drops by an individual are no different than an angel investor. There should be a chip-in-level for crowd-funding campaigns that require the OP to provide some % equity into the project.

Suddenly, the SEC wants to regulate your crowd-funding business. Oops.

Yeah, that thought makes me a little bit uncomfortable. Kickstarter campaigns were interesting precisely because they didn't equate investment with profits. They attempted to align investment with niche product delivery.
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