They just want to see Anthropic crash first and then be the last survivor.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/First-mover_advantage#Second-m...
SpaceX moved first so it’s 3rd move advantage?
OpenAI leans toward waiting until next year for IPO
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Re: OpenAI leans toward waiting until next year for IPO
#122“A bird in the hand is worth two in the bush” as the saying goes.
Maybe they will show major Ad revenue and Codex sales and get a higher price next year but it’s a risk.
Re: OpenAI leans toward waiting until next year for IPO
#123Earlier quoted context omitted.
Good news: GPT-5.6 has been export restricted.
This is patently false, don't spread rumors. Voluntarily delaying release at the request of the government is not the same as imposing export controls.
What? the gov decides who does and who does not get it... i.e restricts who has access.
Re: OpenAI leans toward waiting until next year for IPO
#124They just want to see Anthropic crash first and then be the last survivor.
> They just want to see Anthropic crash first and then be the last survivor.
I don't think so. There's only two real options here:
1. There's no bubble to pop
2. There's a bubble to pop
In the first case, the first AI company to IPO gets a ton of money from the market who wants to get in on this, and the second to IPO finds that there's not enough capital left in the public markets and has to sell for less than they'd wanted to.
In the second case, the fir5st to IPO gets money from their shares, which drop in value (bubble popping), adn the second to IPO gets absolutely nothing (bubble popped).
In both cases, the first to IPO gets the rewards, the second gets either less or nothing.
Re: OpenAI leans toward waiting until next year for IPO
#125Re: OpenAI leans toward waiting until next year for IPO
#126Earlier quoted context omitted.
Perhaps we're really on the same page. I don't think OpenAI executives read the Zitron article and said "oh my god now we can't IPO!"; I think they're both downstream of the underlying bad financials, which SpaceX only managed to mitigate due to the Elon Musk personality trade. (And I agree that this theory falsifiably predicts Anthropic will also find a reason to delay.)
> they're both downstream of the underlying bad financials, which SpaceX only managed to mitigate due to the Elon Musk personality trade Idk, I'm still sceptical how someone could look at the market right now and conclude that it's suddenly hyperaware of financial metrics. For whatever reason–maybe it's corporate-structure complexity, maybe it's lawsuits–OpenAI was always at the end of the pack of AI IPOs. If SK Hyni…
I think that's a pretty well balanced first analysis of this, considering how much we don't know, the IPO "slots" seem to be the most obvious influence.
Re: OpenAI leans toward waiting until next year for IPO
#127Earlier quoted context omitted.
It's actually remained about 14% or more above the IPO price which is roughly what you'd want but gone up and down a bit. It's funny with stock prices - they all go up and down a bit in kind of random ways but people project all sorts of stories onto them that often don't relate much to reality.
Just googling the ticker shows it at 149, which is below its opening.
> Just googling the ticker shows it at 149, which is below its opening.
I thought it opened at 135.
Re: OpenAI leans toward waiting until next year for IPO
#128The window has basically closed for them for the time being. The business math just isn’t there. The best option at this point is kick the can down the road and hope market sentiment improves next year. Not much signal that it will, and quite a lot of signal the sentiment only declines, but pumping the brakes is the least worst option on the table.
> The business math just isn’t there. What do you mean? I promise I'm not being facetious or satirical. I'm just too simple and conservative of an investor to understand this comment. (for example: Is the price-to-earnings ratio too high? I probably wouldn't want to invest in the business.)
They are losing too much money. With open source options that are always close to frontier performance it will always be hard for them reduce training costs and charge premium rates.
Re: OpenAI leans toward waiting until next year for IPO
#129OpenAI is in deep trouble is what I am reading into this
I actually see this as an indicator that they still feel they can comfortably raise in the private market. If they tried to rush an IPO into an indifferent public market it would look worse, in my opinion. I'm not saying they're in great shape--they may be in terrible shape for all I know. But I think rushing the IPO would send a worse message than holding off.