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New gas-powered data centers could emit more greenhouse gases than whole nations

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Re: New gas-powered data centers could emit more greenhouse gases than whole nations

#121

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The article discusses why LCOE is not a good estimate of the costs. Yes, combining different sources lowers the total cost (by damping intermittency). For Denmark it's offshore wind and solar in a 7 to 1 ratio (plus natural gas or biomethane power plants). > Nobody is suggesting to use solar as the sole source of electricity. You weren't clear on what you propose.

https://has-electricity-decoupled-yet.strommarktberatung.de Germany has a lot of solar. It's suppressing prices below the electricity price you would get with pure gas power generation.

The electricity price is not decoupled from the gas price because there's not enough energy storage, wind turbines, interconnections (that is the energy grid can't function without natural gas). The cost of building (and operating) all this goes into SLCOE.

Re: New gas-powered data centers could emit more greenhouse gases than whole nations

#122

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Last year, China installed 1.5GW of nuclear and 300GW of renewables. China's total coal use decreased as they decommissioned and under-utilized more coal than they installed. This same pattern is occurring everywhere, regardless of local politics or local economic system. See Texas as another example. It's because new renewables is superior at contemporary market prices. Markets have decided. Governments have decided…

1 GW of renewables is not equivalent to 1 GW of nuclear or coal capacity,you need backup. China is still building large amount of new coal power plants. In 2025, construction began on 83GW of new coal capacity – down from 98GW in 2024. https://www.carbonbrief.org/rush-for-new-coal-in-china-hits-... For comparision the total EU’s existing coal fleet is 109 GW. https://ember-energy.org/latest-insights/coal-is-not-makin…

However you may try to put lipstick on a pig, the core of the matter is unchanged. China's coal use decreased, and they barely install any nuclear compared to renewables.

Re: New gas-powered data centers could emit more greenhouse gases than whole nations

#123
post #35

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Please. Show me a nuke that was under 10 billion over budget and less than 20 years late. Seriously. Don't even try to insert nuclear power into the debate before you show it can be competently built, never mind safely run and waste safely disposed. But what about the French you say! The French are discovering they forgot to set aside money for decommissioning.

If you look at how much time and money the French poured into their nuclear plant construction project (and several other pre-decommissioning issues) things look rather less rosy. Also, it was a very high priority for France - keep in mind Napoleon's quote about the relative importance of moral and material. More critically: The logic of "The French did {extremely complex thing} fairly well in the late 1900's, theref…

Over 15 years France installed 56 nuclear reactors.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nuclear_power_in_France#Messme...

The costs were not small, but probably smaller than the costs of German Energiewende. Messmer plan needed not only money, but also capable heavy industry and consistent political support.

https://theinnovationattorney.substack.com/p/the-messmer-pla...

https://carboncredits.com/nuclear-education-how-germany-lost...

Had France have such rich coal reserves as Germany, they would probably build coal power plants instead of nuclear power plants.

Germany 39022 millions short tons

France 176 millions short tons

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_coal_rese...

Re: New gas-powered data centers could emit more greenhouse gases than whole nations

#125
post #112
post #42

And the sad part is that ai would be a perfect fit for intermittent energy sources: run inference 24/7 (on whatever you can muster, even if it's fossil it simply does not consume all that much compared to training) and over-build training to achieve whatever total throughout you need in time of energy abundance. How heavy would CO2 pricing have to be to make the market do this instead of the exact opposite?

Compute has massive initial capital requirements, and a very short obsolescence window. It does not make sense to invest in compute and then not run it 24/7 at 100%. Hardware sitting idle waiting for sunshine/wind is leaving money on the table. Especially if you can burn gas during that time and still be hugely profitable.

New conspiracy theory: this is all secretly a big bitcoin mining buildout

Re: New gas-powered data centers could emit more greenhouse gases than whole nations

#126
post #9

The AI data center narrative is the perfect storm: First most of the data center build out is happening in areas that have had little other opportunity so local resistance is muted. Abilene, Texas is referenced and is the kind of place my grandfather would lovingly say is where you go to learn to be a “dirt farmer” Second, every environmentalist in the US is fighting 100 different battles with the most anti-regulatio…

"First most of the data center build out is happening in areas that have had little other opportunity" Speculation presented as fact...

Kind of self evident? If there were opportunity the land would have already been used for something more lucrative than empty.

Re: New gas-powered data centers could emit more greenhouse gases than whole nations

#127
post #17
post #9

The AI data center narrative is the perfect storm: First most of the data center build out is happening in areas that have had little other opportunity so local resistance is muted. Abilene, Texas is referenced and is the kind of place my grandfather would lovingly say is where you go to learn to be a “dirt farmer” Second, every environmentalist in the US is fighting 100 different battles with the most anti-regulatio…

Don’t forget environmentalists have been fighting against nuclear energy for decades. Update: Since I’m being downvoted I’m going to add a little sting: Good luck with your solar power web servers and skipping flights. Poor judgement really does have a price. It’s now inevitable that it’s going to get a bit warmer… everywhere. We’ll be lucky to hit Net Zero by 2100.

A lot of environmentalists are just degrowthers and NIMBYs. During the Biden administration multiple groups sued to block high voltage transmission lines for clean energy.

Re: New gas-powered data centers could emit more greenhouse gases than whole nations

#128
post #112
post #42

And the sad part is that ai would be a perfect fit for intermittent energy sources: run inference 24/7 (on whatever you can muster, even if it's fossil it simply does not consume all that much compared to training) and over-build training to achieve whatever total throughout you need in time of energy abundance. How heavy would CO2 pricing have to be to make the market do this instead of the exact opposite?

Compute has massive initial capital requirements, and a very short obsolescence window. It does not make sense to invest in compute and then not run it 24/7 at 100%. Hardware sitting idle waiting for sunshine/wind is leaving money on the table. Especially if you can burn gas during that time and still be hugely profitable.

Would the world be inherently different if hardware cost was 4x of what it is per unit of training done? The world would be inherently different if we did not burn through fossil stockpiles at the speed we do, or not at all. It's market mechanisms failing to lead to a desirable outcome. Nothing new about that, plenty of problems of that kind have been solved before, but yes, this one is more difficult.

Re: New gas-powered data centers could emit more greenhouse gases than whole nations

#129

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Nobody is suggesting to use solar as the sole source of electricity. That would obviously be insane and then leads to silly numbers like the ones you gave. A MWh of solar is about 30 Euro/MWh if you levelize the capital costs.

The article discusses why LCOE is not a good estimate of the costs. Yes, combining different sources lowers the total cost (by damping intermittency). For Denmark it's offshore wind and solar in a 7 to 1 ratio (plus natural gas or biomethane power plants). > Nobody is suggesting to use solar as the sole source of electricity. You weren't clear on what you propose.

Well, I found the proposal clear and your response confusing.

There are reasons it might not work, not least of all political. But a link to a paper picking a bone with LCoE is talking past GP.

Re: New gas-powered data centers could emit more greenhouse gases than whole nations

#130

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The article discusses why LCOE is not a good estimate of the costs. Yes, combining different sources lowers the total cost (by damping intermittency). For Denmark it's offshore wind and solar in a 7 to 1 ratio (plus natural gas or biomethane power plants). > Nobody is suggesting to use solar as the sole source of electricity. You weren't clear on what you propose.

Well, I found the proposal clear and your response confusing. There are reasons it might not work, not least of all political. But a link to a paper picking a bone with LCoE is talking past GP.

I wanted to remind that "just add solar" comes with the costs that are rarely mentioned.
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