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Apple is fighting for TSMC capacity as Nvidia takes center stage

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Re: Apple is fighting for TSMC capacity as Nvidia takes center stage

#121

Post by sgjohnson »

seanmcdirmid wrote: post #96
wtallis wrote: post #68

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> For Apple, they have binning flexibility, with Pro/Max/Ultra, all the way down to iPads The Pro and Max chips are different dies , and the Ultra currently isn't even the same generation as the Max. And the iPads have never used any of those larger dies. > NVIDIAs flexibility came from using some of those binned dies for GeForce cards NVIDIA's datacenter chips don't even have display outputs, and have little to no f…

There are levels inside pro, max, and ultra that might be the product of binning?

"Ultra" isn't even binned - it's just 2x "Max" chips connected together.

Otherwise, yes, if a chip doesn't make M4 Max, it can make M4 Pro. If not, M4. If not, A18 Pro. If not that, A18.

And even all of the above mentioned marketing names come in different core configurations. M4 Max can be 14 CPU Cores / 32 GPU cores, and it can also be 16 CPU cores and 40 GPU cores.

So yeah, I'd agree that Apple has _extreme_ binning flexibility. It's likely also the reason why we got A19 / A19 Pro / M5 first, and we still don't have M5 Pro or M5 Max yet. Yields not high enough for M5 Max yet.

Unfortunately I don't think they bin down even lower (say, to S chips used in Apple Watches), but maybe in the future they will.

In retrospect, Apple ditching Intel was truly a gamechanging move. They didn't even have to troll everyone by putting an Intel i9 into a chassis that couldn't even cool an i7 to boost the comparison figures, but I guess they had to hedge their bet.

Re: Apple is fighting for TSMC capacity as Nvidia takes center stage

#122

Post by tim-tday »

engineer_22 wrote: post #50

I find that my cell phone which is 4 generations old and my desktop computer which is 2 generations old are totally adequate for everything I need to do, and I do not need faster processing

But do you use any ai services like chat gpt, Claude, Gemini? If so you’re offloading your compute from a local stack to a high performance nvidia gpu stack operated by one of the big five. It’s not that you aren’t using new hardware, it’s that you shifted the load from local to centralized.

I’m not saying this is bad or anything, it’s just another iteration of the centralized vs decentralized pendulum swing that has been happening in tech since the beginning (mainframes with dumb terminals, desktops, the cloud, mobile) etc.

Apple might experience a slowdown in hardware sales because of it. Nvidia might experience a sales boom because of it. The future could very well bring a swing back. Imagine you could run a stack of Mac minis that replaced your monthly Claude code bill. Might pay for itself in 6mo (this doesn’t exist yet but it theoretically could happen)

Re: Apple is fighting for TSMC capacity as Nvidia takes center stage

#123

Post by Afforess »

ai-x wrote: post #116
ndr42 wrote: post #16

I dislike this dramatization in reporting of mundane facts. So report the facts but sentences like "What Wei probably didn’t tell Cook is that Apple may no longer be his largest client" make it personal, they make you take sides, feel sorry for somebody, feel schadenfreude... (as you can observe in the comments)

The most important signal is actually that demand is far exceeding supply and there is no AI Bubble

Except this makes no sense. There isn’t enough power to run all these new chips, so the demand must be speculative, not growth.

Re: Apple is fighting for TSMC capacity as Nvidia takes center stage

#124

Post by aaronblohowiak »

Bombthecat wrote: post #104
Fiveplus wrote: post #6

Calling Nvidia niche feels a bit wild given their status-quo right now, but from a foundry perspective, it seems true. Apple is the anchor tenant that keeps the lights on across 12 different mature and leading-edge fabs. Nvidia is the high-frequency trader hammering the newest node until the arb closes. Stability usually trades at a discount during a boom, but Wei knows the smartphone replacement cycle is the only pr…

I doubt that we will hit diminishing returns in AI. We still find new ways to make them faster or cheaper or better or even train themselves... The flat line prediction is now 2 years old...

Feels like top of s curve lately

Re: Apple is fighting for TSMC capacity as Nvidia takes center stage

#125

Post by bilekas »

etempleton wrote: post #114
bilekas wrote: post #105

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I'm thinking back to over the summer, they were reducing their work force and changing the previous CEO's direction. https://www.manufacturingdive.com/news/intel-layoffs-25-perc...

In some areas they may be shifting resources. But a lot has happened since last summer. They have received some cash infusions and 18a is in full production with yields, apparently, at acceptable levels. Rumors are Apple has already signed on.

Ah okay, that's good news actually, would love to see Intel growing more. I know I'm rooting for their GPU range too.

Re: Apple is fighting for TSMC capacity as Nvidia takes center stage

#126

Post by tim-tday »

Lio wrote: post #66
engineer_22 wrote: post #50

I find that my cell phone which is 4 generations old and my desktop computer which is 2 generations old are totally adequate for everything I need to do, and I do not need faster processing

I used to think that. I really don't care about most new phone features and for my laptop the M1 Max is still a really decent chip. I do want to run local LLM agents though and I think a Mac Studio with an M5 Ultra (when it comes out) is probably how I'm going to do that. I need more RAM. I bet I'm not the only one looking at that kind of setup now that was previously happy with what they had..

Apple has made some good progress on memory sharing over thunderbolt. If they could get that ironed out you maybe could run a good LLM on a cluster of Mac minis. Again you cannot today but people are working on it. One guy might have gotten it to work but it’s not ready for prime time yet.

Re: Apple is fighting for TSMC capacity as Nvidia takes center stage

#128

Post by [deleted] »

sgjohnson wrote: post #121
seanmcdirmid wrote: post #96

Earlier quoted context omitted.

There are levels inside pro, max, and ultra that might be the product of binning?

"Ultra" isn't even binned - it's just 2x "Max" chips connected together. Otherwise, yes, if a chip doesn't make M4 Max, it can make M4 Pro. If not, M4. If not, A18 Pro. If not that, A18. And even all of the above mentioned marketing names come in different core configurations. M4 Max can be 14 CPU Cores / 32 GPU cores, and it can also be 16 CPU cores and 40 GPU cores. So yeah, I'd agree that Apple has _extreme_ binni…

[deleted]

Re: Apple is fighting for TSMC capacity as Nvidia takes center stage

#129

Post by ricw »

genocidicbunny wrote: post #51
Fiveplus wrote: post #36

Earlier quoted context omitted.

That is the traditional textbook yield curve logic, if I'm not wrong? Smaller area = higher probability of a surviving die on a dirty wafer. But I wonder if the sheer margin on AI silicon basically breaks that rule? If Nvidia can sell a reticle-sized package for 25k-30k USD, they might be perfectly happy paying for a wafer that only yields 30-40% good dies. Apple OTOH operates at consumer electronics price points. Th…

I am curious about the binning factor too since in the past, AMD and Intel have both made use of defect binning to still sell usable chips by disabling cores. Perhaps Apple is able to do the same with their SoCs? It's not likely to be as granular as Nvidia who can disable much smaller areas of the silicon for each of their cores. On the other hand, the specifics of the silicon and the layout of the individual cores,…

They do bin their chips. Across the range (A- and M-series) they have the same chip with fewer / disabled cpu and gpu cores. You pray a premium for ones with more cores. Unsure about the chip frequencies - Apple doesn’t disclose those openly from what I know.

Re: Apple is fighting for TSMC capacity as Nvidia takes center stage

#130

Post by basscomm »

ndr42 wrote: post #16

I dislike this dramatization in reporting of mundane facts. So report the facts but sentences like "What Wei probably didn’t tell Cook is that Apple may no longer be his largest client" make it personal, they make you take sides, feel sorry for somebody, feel schadenfreude... (as you can observe in the comments)

> I dislike this dramatization in reporting of mundane facts.

Okay, but this isn't a news article, it's an opinion piece on some guy's substack.

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