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Apple is fighting for TSMC capacity as Nvidia takes center stage

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Re: Apple is fighting for TSMC capacity as Nvidia takes center stage

#91
post #16

I dislike this dramatization in reporting of mundane facts. So report the facts but sentences like "What Wei probably didn’t tell Cook is that Apple may no longer be his largest client" make it personal, they make you take sides, feel sorry for somebody, feel schadenfreude... (as you can observe in the comments)

Clickbait permeates all things. Next thing you know they'll be adding ____ (insert favorite controversial world leader) enraged to the headline.

Re: Apple is fighting for TSMC capacity as Nvidia takes center stage

#92
This article repeatedly cites revenue growth numbers as an indicator of Nvidia and Apple’s relative health, which is a very particular way of looking at things. By way of another one, Apple had $416Bn in revenue, which was a 6% increase from the prior year, or about $25Bn, or about all of Nvidia’s revenue in 2023. Apple’s had slow growth in the last 4 years following a big bump during the early pandemic; their 5 year revenue growth, though, is still $140Bn, or about $10Bn more than Nvidia’s 2025 revenues. Nvidia has indeed grown like a monster in the last couple years - 35Bn increase from 23-24 and 70Bn increase from 24-25. Those numbers would be 8% and 16% increases for Apple respectively, which I’m sure would make the company a deeply uninteresting slow-growth story compared to new upstarts.

I get why the numbers are presented the way they are, but it always gets weird when talking about companies of Apple’s size - percent increases that underwhelm Wall Street correspond to raw numbers that most companies would sacrifice their CEO to a volcano to attain, and sales flops in Apple’s portfolio mean they only sold enough product to supply double-digit percentages of the US population.

Re: Apple is fighting for TSMC capacity as Nvidia takes center stage

#94

Ha! Well if it isn't karma that has come for Apple. (Apple is well known for shoving "lesser vendors" out of the way at TSMC)

Weird take. If you want to undertake approximately a bajillion dollars in capex to prove out and scale up a new node, it is extremely to have one massive, anchor customer who will promise well in advance to offtake basically the entire thing for a bit and who has creditworthiness exceeded by few non-sovereign entities, and thus is able to write contracts against which it is easy to lend. Also this customer makes little chips (when your defect rate is higher) and bigger chips (when your defect rate is lower). Of course you don't try to synthesize this profile out of a bajillion tiny customers.

Re: Apple is fighting for TSMC capacity as Nvidia takes center stage

#95

Sneak preview of the TSMC shortage that will sweep the world in 2027 when China takes Taiwan and the TSMC scuttles their chip fabs on the island. I don’t know the hedge to position against this but I’m pretty sure China will make good on its promise.

> I don’t know the hedge to position against this

Buy in-demand fab output today, even at a premium price and even if you can't install or power it all, expecting shortages tomorrow. Which is pretty much the way the tech economy is already working.

So no, no hedge. NVIDIA's customers already beat you to it.

Re: Apple is fighting for TSMC capacity as Nvidia takes center stage

#96
post #68

Earlier quoted context omitted.

With current AI pricing for silicon, I think the math’s gone out the window. For Apple, they have binning flexibility, with Pro/Max/Ultra, all the way down to iPads - and that’s after the node yields have been improved via the gazillion iPhone SoC dies. NVIDIAs flexibility came from using some of those binned dies for GeForce cards, but the VRAM situation is clearly making that less important, as they’re cutting some…

> For Apple, they have binning flexibility, with Pro/Max/Ultra, all the way down to iPads The Pro and Max chips are different dies , and the Ultra currently isn't even the same generation as the Max. And the iPads have never used any of those larger dies. > NVIDIAs flexibility came from using some of those binned dies for GeForce cards NVIDIA's datacenter chips don't even have display outputs, and have little to no f…

There are levels inside pro, max, and ultra that might be the product of binning?

Re: Apple is fighting for TSMC capacity as Nvidia takes center stage

#97
post #6

Calling Nvidia niche feels a bit wild given their status-quo right now, but from a foundry perspective, it seems true. Apple is the anchor tenant that keeps the lights on across 12 different mature and leading-edge fabs. Nvidia is the high-frequency trader hammering the newest node until the arb closes. Stability usually trades at a discount during a boom, but Wei knows the smartphone replacement cycle is the only pr…

Regardless of that, fab industry is based on a short and mid term auction-like planning. If Nvidia pays more, Apple has to match.

> Regardless of that, fab industry is based on a short and mid term auction-like planning

Not a system that necessarily works all that well if one player has a short-term ability to vastly outspending all the rest.

You can't let all your other customers die just because Nvidia is flush with cash this quarter...

Re: Apple is fighting for TSMC capacity as Nvidia takes center stage

#99
post #47

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I hate this writing as well. Is not about technology and finance? The reporter writes as if it is a novel.

The sheer number of em dashes in the text suggest to me that the reporter didn't write anything, ChatGPT did.

You know posh schools teach people to write with em dashes too, right?
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